Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KOKX 260904
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
504 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

IFR/LIFR CONDITION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTENING LOW- LEVELS
AND -DZ. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND
18Z IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE COMING BACK DOWN
THIS AFT/EVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY
LATE MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE.
WINDS SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 55-65KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS BETWEEN
10Z AND 16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS BETWEEN
10Z AND 16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR THIS AFT/EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.