Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 011756
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1256 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes tonight into
Friday. A weak trough will move through Saturday. High pressure
builds in for Sunday and pushes offshore Sunday night as an upper
level trough approaches. High pressure builds in thereafter
through Tuesday. A frontal system approaches for the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Flow behind a cold front has become westerly as upper low lifts
into southern Ontario/Quebec. This is driving much drier air into
the area. Cold advection has begun, and it appears temperatures
are now holding steady, only to begin falling as the afternoon
progresses with low sun angle. Winds will gusts 25 to 30 mph
through the afternoon hours.

Mostly/partly sunny skies are expected, with an increasing amount
of strato-cu clouds across the interior. Lower coverage east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Closed upper low slowly lifts into southeastern Canada tonight into
Friday with weak troughing noted aloft. Several lobes of energy will
swing across the region as the upper low slowly drifts to the east.
The Tri-State will be located within a fairly tight pressure
gradient between low pressure to the north and east and high
pressure over the central states.

Cold advection will continue tonight with a NW flow in the middle
and upper levels. Any stratocumulus from during the day should
largely dissipate with only a few lingering clouds across the
interior. The boundary layer will be well mixed tonight so do not
anticipate radiational cooling and temperatures dropping much below
freezing. Readings generally in the middle to upper 30s are forecast
with a few locations across the interior possibly falling into the
lower 30s.

Friday should start mostly clear, but then clouds are likely to
increase from NW to SE in the afternoon with the shortwave energy
rotating around the larger cutoff low. The most cloud cover should
be confined to the interior and this is also where an isolated
sprinkle or flurry cannot be ruled out. Have left this out of the
grids for now due to model soundings showing a good amount of dry
air below 5kft to overcome. Highs will be near normal in the upper
40s to near 50 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions for the beginning of the long term as surface
high pressure builds in Saturday, with zonal flow aloft. It will be
on the breezy side as low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes
strengthens as it pulls away from the area. A weak surface trough
will move through Saturday, but only expecting a wind shift from the
WNW to the NW and some increase in cloudiness. Lift associated with
this trough is weak and moisture is lacking to produce any
precipitation.

Surface high pressure moves over the region Sunday, pushing offshore
Sunday night as a northern stream weak upper level shortwave
approaches from the Great Lakes area. This feature seems to weaken
as it heads toward the area Sunday night into Monday, so chance POPs
late Sunday night transition to slight chance everywhere for Monday.

High pressure then moves in for Monday night through the day
Tuesday, then retreats to the northeast on Tuesday as a frontal
system approaches from the southwest. Cold air damming for Tuesday
into Tuesday night, so some light snow is possible inland. This
system also seems to weaken as it moves into the drier air of the
high pressure system to the northeast. Only slight chance POPs
associated with this system.

Temperatures in the long term will be at or slightly below normal
for this time of year, in the 40s region-wide.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Westerly flow behind a departing area of low pressure will
continue into the day on Friday.

VFR through the TAF period. Strato-cu at around 3500-4500 ft could
occasionally result in broken ceilings this afternoon, primarily
north and west of the city terminals.

Main impact through the period will be gusty west winds. While
the prevailing wind direction is expected to remain to the left of
310 magnetic, gusts will range from 20-25 kt, with occasional
gusts in the 25-30 kt range at the city terminals. Winds and gusts
will diminish after 00Z at outlying terminals, but will linger
through the evening push at the NYC/NJ metro airports. Gusts then
return mid-late morning on Friday at around 20 kt.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: A few gusts to 25-30 kt are possible this
afternoon in westerly flow. A brief period of broken 3500-4500 ft
ceilings is possible this afternoon, primarily between 18-22Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: A few gusts to 25-30 kt are possible this
afternoon in westerly flow. A brief period of broken 3500-4500 ft
ceilings is possible this afternoon, primarily between 18-22Z.

KEWR TAF Comments: A few gusts to 25-30 kt are possible this
afternoon in westerly flow. A brief period of broken 3500-4500 ft
ceilings is possible this afternoon, primarily between 18-22Z.

KTEB TAF Comments: A few gusts to 25-30 kt are possible this
afternoon in westerly flow. A brief period of broken 3500-4500 ft
ceilings is possible this afternoon, primarily between 18-22Z.

KHPN TAF Comments: A few gusts to 25-30 kt are possible this
afternoon in westerly flow.

KISP TAF Comments: A few gusts to around 25 kt are possible this
afternoon in westerly flow.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday...VFR. West gusts 20-25 KT.
.Saturday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 KT.
.Sunday...VFR.
.Monday-Tuesday...VFR...possibly lower at times depending on the
track of low pressure to the south.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions are expected on all waters this afternoon behind a
cold front with an increasing westerly flow.

SCA wind gusts will continue tonight on all waters, but begin to
fall below criteria on the LI Sound, NY Harbor, and LI Bays early
Friday morning.

Winds on the ocean may come close to 25 kt on Friday. Ocean seas
will begin to subside tonight, but still remain above 5 ft through
Friday. For now have held off on extending the SCA past 11z Friday
on the ocean.

Waves should remain below SCA criteria through the long term. Winds
could gust to 25-30 kt on the ocean waters Friday night through the
first half of Saturday night as low pressure of the Canadian
Maritimes strengthens and pulls away from the waters. Thereafter,
winds should remain below 25 kt as high pressure builds in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant precipitation is forecast through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JP/DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DS



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