Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 171917
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
317 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through the weekend. As it passes
east early next week, rain chances increase as low pressure and a
cold front approach.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Very little adjustments were made in the near term despite
warmer trend in guidance with temperatures tonight. After
collaboration with surrounding offices decided against Frost
Advisory with coverage limited to patchy.

At the surface, high pressure to the west continues to draw
closer as the winds go light WSW to variable tonight. With
subtle warm air advection above the surface tonight, and very
little winds and very dry conditions patchy frost should be
achieved in northern most zones. Otherwise, crystal clear with
lows similar to last night, perhaps just a few degrees warmer
than last night in the coldest locations. A wider spread with
tonight`s minimums are expected due to a more textbook
radiational cooling set up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunny skies and a gradual moderation in temps begins on
Wednesday as SW return flow develops around the high to the
south. Temperatures should warm to slightly above seasonable
levels in the upper 60s to lower 70s. It will not be nearly as
cool Wednesday night with warm air advection pattern getting
well underway.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aloft, initial weak shortwave passes with no impact on our weather.
Ridge builds late this week and through the weekend. Thereafter,
differences in the global models arise with regard to timing and
eventual strength of upstream trough as it moves toward the east
coast Monday and Tuesday.

At the surface, a weak cold front passes Thursday night into early
Friday. Otherwise, high pressure builds late this week, and passes
off the coast this weekend. A stronger cold front approaches from
the west Monday and Tuesday. Again, due to differences in the models
aloft, differences are noted on progression of the front, and any
associated waves of low pressure that may ride along it.

Higher confidence in an increase in clouds Monday and Tuesday, along
with increasing rain chances, mainly beginning Monday night into
Tuesday.

In the Thursday through Sunday time frame, expect abundant sunshine
along with daytime highs averaging around 5-10 degrees above normal.
In fact, these above normal temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday
as well in spite of the increase in clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains just southwest of the region through
Wednesday.

VFR through the TAF period. Winds gradually back to the west-
southwest this afternoon. Speeds remain less than 10 kt through
the period.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday-Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure settles just south of the coastal waters into
Wednesday with sub SCA conditions. This is expected to continue
through the remainder of the week. Gusts may gust close to 20 kt
late Thursday/Thursday night ahead of a weak cold front.

As high pressure builds Friday through Saturday before passing east
Sunday, expect sub SCA conditions through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through this weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/PW
HYDROLOGY...JE/PW


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