Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 270254
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
954 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE YET
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THREAT OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELEGATED WELL N&W OF NYC
TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING BUT SHEARING SHORTWAVE AXIS.

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
IT...WILL HANG ON TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

MODELS SIGNALING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS SHEARING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK INTO FRI MORNING. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON DRYING TREND IN 18Z HIGH-RES AND
OPER GUIDANCE...AND THIS MAY HAVE TO LOWERED FURTHER OR REMOVED
BASED ON RADAR OBS AND 00Z GUIDANCE.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH
BRIEF WINDOWS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...A
BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
MID MOISTURE COULD CAUSE FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS
AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DON`T CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH...SO
HIGHS PROBABLY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS THEN DIMINISHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
TURNING CLEAR AND REMAINING COLD AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS 10-15
IN THE CITY WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SUBURBS. SOME NORTHERN
SUBURBS COULD SEE BELOW ZERO LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FINALLY SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN
WITH A SPLIT CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES SAT INTO SUN. A NORTHERN BRANCH AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF
THEN SENDS A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE TUE...AND THEN ANOTHER
SLOWER MID WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIMING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GGEM MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE GFS.

THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. SAT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS STILL ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS POINT TOWARD THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN REESTABLISHING A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD MEAN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR.

AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEMS...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES. PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD THE COLDER GFS AND
GGEM. THE MID WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO START AS SNOW TUE AFT/EVE...
THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FRONTAL WAVES TO IMPACT THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GGEM ARE
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN VFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT TEMPORARILY AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS...AND SHOULD DO THE SAME AT KHPN/KBDR/KISP BEFORE
RETURNING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI.
COULD SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
IS NOT REFLECTED IN 03Z AMD.

N WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT SHOULD BECOME NW 5-10 KT FRI AFTERNOON...
REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...

.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.

.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MON MORNING...SNOW BECOMING LIKELY...WITH MVFR
OR IFR CONDS.

.MON AFTERNOON-TUE AFTERNOON...VFR.

.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. SNOW IN THE EVENING...
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AT KSWF/KHPN/KBDR...AND
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS
AND KISP.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL HELP CREATE SOME LONG PERIOD E AND S
SWELLS AND KEEP SEAS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME FOR THE EASTERN
WATERS. HAVE LEFT IT AS A GENERAL SCA VS A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR SIMPLICITY AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE
REST OF THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUB- SCA CONDS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW







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