Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 291448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY
AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TONIGHT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS DOWN TO 4.6 FT AT 44017 AND WOULD EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL...SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH
EXPIRES AT 11 AM.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN



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