Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 260200
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1000 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT...AND
LIKELY STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACK EAST ALONG IT. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE THURSDAY AND NIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR/HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CONTINUE TO SLOW ONSET OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND THEN SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE REGION
TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS BEING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS BEING REINFORCED TO THE
NORTH.

INCREASING LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT
AND FIRST SURFACE WAVE WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...COOL WATER
TEMPS...AND ONLY A 30-35 KT WESTERLY 850 HPA JET...HIGHER
PROBABILITY IS SURFACE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE.
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY WORK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...PROMOTING A CHANCE FOR
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI- STATE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING CHANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHING FARTHER S/SW LATER
MON MORNING WITH REINFORCEMENT OF CAD IN WAKE OF FIRST SURFACE WAVE
ON LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW.

THEN A SECOND WAVE APPROACHES TUE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE
FORCING FOR RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN
IS WHETHER FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE GETS INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SECOND WAVE. THE MAIN IMPLICATIONS WITH THIS
WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPERATURES...AND A FOCUS FOR
POTENTIAL SURFACE BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AGAIN...HIGHER PROBABILITY
IS THAT THIS FRONT STAYS SW OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS NE PA/CENTRAL NJ...BUT WILL BE CLOSE FOR NE NJ.
EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NE NJ/NYC METRO AND
LONG ISLAND TUE AFT/EARLY EVE WITH INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE/LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET AND AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET ADVECTS IN INSTABILITY FROM PA/NJ. A SMALL HAIL THREAT EXISTS
FOR TUE AFT/EARLY EVE WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...AND COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH A SLIGHT PROB FOR SEVERE
HAIL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING...WITH GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGH HOLDING IN THE 40S ACROSS CT...50S FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...EXCEPT LOWER 60S FOR NE NJ. IF
WARM FRONT POKES NORTHEAST INTO NE NJ...TEMPS WOULD LIFT INTO THE
70S THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH COLD FRONT
AND SURFACE WAVES PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS. STRATUS
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT DUE A STRONG LOW- LEVEL
INVERSION.

LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE DESPITE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIMIT POPS TO EITHER
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH THE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AN EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL...RAINY PERIOD OF WEATHER.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT A DRY...MOSTLY
SUNNY WEEKEND.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S OR 60S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND LIKELY STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES
TRACK EAST ALONG IT.

VFR WITH A MID DECK CEILING UNTIL 04Z TO 08Z WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AS RAIN/FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS LOWER FURTHER AROUND
12Z...TO LOW END MVFR AND HIGH IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM THE
NYC TERMINALS WEST.

S/SE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN TURNS TO
THE E/NE TUESDAY MORNING. NE TO N WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE WIND FORECAST...AS DIRECTIONS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR LONG ISLAND AND CT TERMINALS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TUESDAY FOR CEILING AND WIND
FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TUESDAY FOR THE CEILING AND
POSSIBLY THE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TUESDAY FOR THE CEILING
AND WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TUESDAY FOR THE CEILING AND WIND
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TUESDAY FOR THE CEILING FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TUESDAY FOR THE CEILING FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...RETURN TO VFR AS RAIN ENDS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT. E/NE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT TUE AFT/EVE ACROSS OCEAN AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
WATERS...WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE EVE IN WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE. ACCORDINGLY SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT ON THE OCEAN TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND REMAINING SO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM 12Z TUESDAY-10Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SLOWLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/NV/BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/NV/BC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/NV/BC



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