Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 262015
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE
AFTER 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE 00Z
TOMORROW. BETTER CHC AFTER 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW







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