Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 220832
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
432 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across early this morning. High pressure
then starts building from the Great Lakes, moving more into the
region tonight into Thursday. The high moves offshore Thursday
night. A warm front passes Friday, followed by a cold front
Saturday. The front remains south of the area as high pressure
builds to the north over the weekend. Waves of low pressure
impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Jet stream dives south of the region today with cold air
advection. Model 850mb temperatures drop to near -15 to -16
degrees C.

A cold front moves across early this morning with a tightening
pressure gradient between a low moving towards Nova Scotia and a
Canadian high moving into the Great Lakes. This combined with
daytime mixing will allow for most top of the mixed layer winds
to be realized. A windy and cold day will be the result. Wind
gusts are expected to reach near 31mph sustained and near 46mph
gusts for quite a few locations.

Daytime highs stay in the 30s which will be well below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Dry and cold through the period. Jet stream still south of the
region this evening with more of a ridging trend thereafter as
the jet starts to move back north. Winds starts to taper down
tonight, with Long Island/NYC still seeing some higher gusts
until 8pm. Pressure gradient thereafter starts to lower with the
closer proximity of high pressure building in from the NW.

Lows tonight and highs Thursday used a blend of MAV/MET/GMOS.
Well below normal values with lows tonight in the lower teens to
lower 20s and highs Thursday in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather through much of this time frame.

Model details remain uncertain, but chances for wet weather look
likely through the period.

A warm front passes Friday as high pressure departs to the east.
Generally light precip is expected as the warm front moves through,
certainly not a wash out, or significant event.

A cold front will likely approach from the north as a ridge of high
pressure moves across central canada, pushing the front southward.
The front sags just to the south late Saturday, and will remain
there for several days. Once again, some wet weather is possible
Saturday and Saturday night as the front moves through, but not a
wash out.

Then, attention turns toward upstream trough and low pressure as it
approaches from the west Sunday and Monday. Looks like a good chance
for rain, or a wintry mix across the interior, at times. This trough
passes, with yet another one on its heels Tuesday. More wet weather
expected by that time.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side, especially once the front
passes to the south late Saturday. Near normal temps are expected
Friday, with slightly above normal readings for Saturday.
Thereafter, readings in the 40s during the day, with 30s at night
are forecast as the local area remains north, or on the cool side of
the front.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian high pressure is building into the region.

VFR through the TAF period.

NW winds will increase to 15-20KT with gusts between 25-30KT
from late morning into early afternoon. The strongest winds
will occur from 14Z-23Z Wednesday when NW winds will be
sustained near 25KT with gusts to 35KT. Winds could
occasionally gust to 40KT. Wind direction within 20 degrees of
320 degrees. Winds diminish after midnight Thursday.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Start time of gusts could be off by 1-2
hours. Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger than forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger
than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Start time of gusts could be off by 1-2
hours. Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger than forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Start time of gusts could be off by 1-2
hours. Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger
than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger
than forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: Start time of gusts could be off by 1-2
hours. Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wed...VFR. NW Gusts 30-35 kt.
.Thursday..VFR.
.Friday...CHC PM shra/mvfr. SW gusts 25 kt.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR.
.Sunday...MVFR/IFR and rain. E gusts 20-25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Gales expected to develop shortly after daybreak with the cold
frontal passage. Efficient mixing between colder air aloft and
relatively warmer sea surface will easily allow for gusts in the
35-40 kt range. This will start to decrease tonight from west to
east. Gale warning remains until 06Z Thursday. SCA remains
likely thereafter through rest of tonight into early Thursday
before all waters go below SCA for rest of Thursday.

High pressure moves across the waters Thursday night, and passes
well to the east Friday. Winds diminish during this time, but begin
to increase from the SW later Friday into Friday night.

A cold front approaches from the north Saturday, and settles near or
just south of the waters Saturday night into Sunday. Winds diminish,
and turn toward the E/NE. Speeds increase yet again Sunday as high
pressure builds well to the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NW winds of 15-30 mph with gusts 35-50 mph and min RH in the
20s should help dry fine fuels across the snow barren ground.
This will enhance the threat for brush fire spread in those
areas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Unsettled weather from this weekend through early next week may
result in an inch or more of precipitation. However, this would
occur over a prolonged period and would be intermittent, so no
hydrologic concerns are anticipated.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The following are record low temperatures for Thursday March
23, 2017 along with the forecast low temperatures.

Record Low Temperature          Forecast Low Temperature
----------------------          ------------------------
Central Park........12 (1875)         21
LaGuardia...........20 (1959)         22
Kennedy.............20 (1959)         21
Islip...............15 (2004)         18
Newark..............13 (1934)         19
Bridgeport..........19 (2004)         19

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>071.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...JM/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
CLIMATE...


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