Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 111930 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...SLOWLY MOVING IN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLING WITHIN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL WEAK LOWS FORM ALONG THE FRONT WITH ONE EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AFTER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WEAKEN THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 60S IN NYC.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING. IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT YET TRANSPORT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LI. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MAV/MET MOS WERE ALMOST IDENTICAL IN MOST LOCATIONS SO SAW NO REASON TO TAKE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A MODEL BLEND. THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH A CONTINUING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY...MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. THE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK LOWS MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDS ON TAP THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS E-NE WILL TURN TO THE S-SE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT...AND THEN SEA BREEZES IMPACT THE TERMINALS ON SATURDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE THROUGH FROM 20-21Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE THROUGH FROM 20-21Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS. STRONGER TSTMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS REMAINING 3 FT OR LESS ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE SOUND. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LATE ON SUNDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC THREATS...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GS/FIG NEAR TERM...GS SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MPS MARINE...GS/FIG HYDROLOGY...GS/FIG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.