Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 041758 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LIGHT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NYC AND POINT N&W...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. RAIN TO THE NORTH OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLES BECOMING ISO-SCT AND MAINLY ACROSS LI/CT BY 6 PM. HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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JUST A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND MAINLY ACROSS LI/CT. COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AROUND 5 TO 7 KFT...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN NYC METRO AND 55-60 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST. WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW PRES PASSES S OF LI TODAY. HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W SUN. MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION IS AT KSWF WHERE SOME -RA WILL PRODUCE MVFR THRU ABOUT 19-20Z. NNE WINDS TODAY VEER SLIGHTLY THRU 22-00Z...THEN BECOME LGT AND VRB TNGT. W FLOW DEVELOPS AFT 12Z SUN...THEN MODIFIED SSW SEA BREEZE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .REST OF SUN...VFR WITH SSW FLOW. .MON...VFR WITH S WINDS. .TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS. .WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW. .THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. FLOW BECOMING NE.
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&& .MARINE...
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LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET TODAY. THE OCEAN WATERS...PARTICULARLY EAST...MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. SEAS/WAVES 1 TO 2 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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GENERALLY THAN 1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY. THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CT COULD REMAIN DRY. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW AVIATION...JMC MARINE...PW/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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