Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271115 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 615 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4 INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS. MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES. THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. LIGHTER SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS. SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT. .WED NGT-THU...VFR. .THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN. .FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G30KT IN THE AFTN. .SAT...VFR. && .MARINE... 970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND. CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3 INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT. LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST. ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008- 010>012. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009. NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075- 176>179. NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345- 355. STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353. STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...TONGUE AVIATION...BC MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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