-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 111930
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SLOWLY MOVING IN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
STALLING WITHIN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL WEAK
LOWS FORM ALONG THE FRONT WITH ONE EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AFTER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WEAKEN
THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 60S IN NYC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT YET TRANSPORT IN HIGHER
HUMIDITY. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LI. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MAV/MET MOS WERE ALMOST IDENTICAL
IN MOST LOCATIONS SO SAW NO REASON TO TAKE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
MODEL BLEND. THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH A CONTINUING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY...MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST.

THE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK
LOWS MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR LATER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON AVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDS ON TAP THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

SEA BREEZES ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS OF 10
KT OR LESS. WINDS E-NE WILL TURN TO THE S-SE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT...AND THEN SEA BREEZES IMPACT THE
TERMINALS ON SATURDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE THROUGH FROM 20-21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE THROUGH FROM 20-21Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS.
STRONGER TSTMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY
WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS REMAINING 3 FT OR LESS ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR
LESS ON THE SOUND.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LATE
ON SUNDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC THREATS...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GS/FIG
NEAR TERM...GS
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GS/FIG
HYDROLOGY...GS/FIG