-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 271115
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
615 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH
RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z. LIGHTER SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.WED NGT-THU...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...