-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 062035
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
335 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS IT MOVES EAST
ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE SECOND HALF.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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NOTE TO MEDIA...MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY ENHANCEMENT ON RADAR IS
FROM BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. PLEASE VIEW DUAL POL PRODUCTS FOR
CLEARER UNDERSTANDING. ALSO A GOOD TIME TO SPREAD THE WORD ABOUT
THE NOAA NSSL PING PROJECT. THANKS.

THE GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE PICTURE
WITH A RIVER OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO NEWFOUNDLAND.

WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.

COLD "NOSE" IN LOW LEVELS AROUND 2-4K FT AGL LAYER WITH TEMPS OF
-2 TO -4 C THIS EVENING AT KSWF SEEN IN 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS CLEARLY SUPPORTS SLEET. IN FACT, MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SLEET. SLEET ACCUMULATION IN ORANGE MY BE AN
INCH OR SO. ITS TOWARDS 10 TO 11 PM THAT THE COLUMN ALOFT (5-10K
FT AGL) COOLS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ON TOP THE
SLEET WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS COOLING ALOFT. SEE
THE POTENTIAL, BASED ON SREF PLUMES, FOR SEVERAL INCHES. THINKING
THE HIGH END WOULD BE 4 WITH MORE LIKELY THE 1 TO 2 RANGE. HAVE
ISSUED THE WSW BASED ON THE EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET
AT THE START EVEN THROUGH COUNTY AVERAGES ARE BELOW THE 3 INCH
CRITERIA. IN ADDITION...TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY BY
MORNING AREA WILL MAKE FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL.

WITH THE LOSS OF COLD CLOUD SEEDER/FEEDER NUCLEATION...PCPN IN
THE ADVISORY AREA MY END AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE I-84 CORRIDOR IN CT SHOULD ALSO GET ACCUMULATIONS. THUS WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS.

ALONG THE COAST...SEE ALL RAIN. THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SLEET
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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ANY LEFT OVER PCPN ENDS QUICKLY VERY EARLY SATURDAY AM WITH CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE.

TEMPS RISE TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY (GFS MOS
USED)...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES RESULTS IN A COLD
NIGHT FORM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LEANED TOWARDS COLDER NAM MOS
NUMBERS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL
POSSIBLY START OUT AS SNOW AND/OR SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ON
MONDAY...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES COULD HOLD ON THE WINTRY MIXTURE LONGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE WARM AIR PUSHES THROUGH.

AT THIS TIME...LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARILY INLAND. WHATEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATION THE
CITY/COAST COULD MANAGE WOULD BE WASHED AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MVFR WITH LCL IFR CONDS INTO THIS EVENING IN -RA/BR.

LOW PRES APPROACHES TONIGHT. ALL RAIN AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
10Z...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AS PRECIP WINDS DOWN AROUND 10Z.

FOR KSWF...RAIN CHANGES TO SLEET THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SNOW/SLEET ON TAP FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF AS
SNOW LATE. IFR/LIFR CONDS.

N WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BACKING TO THE NW SATURDAY MORNING. VFR BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL CONDS...LOWERING TO IFR BY 23Z.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL CONDS...LOWERING TO IFR BY 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL CONDS...LOWERING TO IFR BY 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/MVFR CONDS...BCMG IFR BY 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/MVFR CONDS...BCMG IFR BY 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/MVFR CONDS...BCMG IFR BY 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WINDS 10-20 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR. SNOW...THEN SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE COAST
AND SNOW/SLEET ACROSS INTERIOR.
.MONDAY...IFR. RAIN. WINTRY MIX ACROSS INTERIOR EARLY...THEN RAIN.
SE WINDS 10-15 KT...BCMG NW LATE.
.MONDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. W WIND 15-25 KT.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NORTHERLY WINDS REACH MINIMAL SCA ON THE OCEAN OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. WAVES ON THE
OCEAN WILL REMAIN AROUND THE 5 FT CRITERIA. THUS THE SCA ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

WAVES ON THE OCEAN SHOULD SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA WATERS ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
WITH AN APPROACHING STORM. SEAS AND WINDS FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 3/4 ON AN
INCH LIQUID. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING AROUND HALF INCH TO AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...FIG/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...FIG/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...