-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 161510
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1110 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING IN THE WAKE. ANOTHER FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12Z SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG CAA ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE...DO NOT
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB MUCH FROM WHERE THEY
CURRENTLY ARE. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S INLAND...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE COAST. SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO REGION. ALSO AIDING IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN IS CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENTLY...THERE IS AN
AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA WHICH WILL ADVECT EASTWARD. WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH TO AS HIGH AS 30
MPH IN SOME PARTS OF THE CWA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENING...DO EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
AFTER 15Z.

THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS WOULD BE
A CONCERN IN REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER...BUT COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE MAXIMUM HEATING AND MINIMUM RH
PORTION OF THE DAY ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ALLEVIATE THOSE CONCERNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY AND SETTING THE
TONE FOR THE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUED TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE
HIGH TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST...SUPPRESSING THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY PULL OUT OF POPS...WITH THE 00Z
RUNS STILL BRINGING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND
AREA. WILL HOLD WITH CHC POPS THERE...THOUGH KEEPING THINGS DRY
THEN TO THE NORTH. WITH MULTIPLE RUNS HAVING NOW TRENDING TO THE
DRIER SOLUTION...FEEL CONFIDENT IN ADJUSTING POPS APPROPRIATELY TO
REFLECT THIS TREND. TIMING OF THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE AROUND 06Z MON
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHES THE NORTHEAST AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ZONAL FLOW ATTEMPTS TO SET UP ALOFT ONCE AGAIN.
THE BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO DISPLAY OFFSHORE SO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN AXIS REMAINING WELL OUT OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SNOW TOTALS LOOKING TO BE FROM A DUSTING TO NO MORE
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE HIGH KEEPING A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. ONCE
AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW SETS UP FOR THE COMING WEEK...RESULTING IN MULTIPLE
LOWS AND SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE AREA MIDWEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE CANADIAN HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY
FORECAST IN PLACE AS A RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z NAM CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A COASTAL
LOW TUESDAY AND TRACKS IT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WED. THE OTHER
MODELS PRODUCE A LOW AS WELL...BUT QUICKLY PROGRESS IT OFF TO THE
EAST WELL OFFSHORE AND WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA. FELT THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
ENERGY ALOFT OFFSHORE AND NOT TO THE NORTH. JUST SOMETHING TO
WATCH THOUGH.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS THERE IS GENERALLY
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WED...EVENTUALLY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND CMC AREA A TAD BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF ON THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
GENERALLY BEGAN MENTIONING POPS WED...WITH THE BEST CHC WED
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING OUT BY THURS AFTN. THE POPS THURS MORNING MAY
BE OVERDONE AND LASTING TOO LONG ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH A QUICK FLOW
ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ADVECTING IN
WARMER AIR. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT BEGIN/END TIME...COULD SEE SOME
PCPN OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A WINTRY MIX THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE
OF THAT OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

PCPN CLEARS THURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE
ALOFT. INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON ANOTHER PCPN EVENT NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND WITH A QUICK MOVING
SURFACE LOW AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF SO WHILE IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION
WILL INDEED SEE PCPN...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY...A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
CENTERED FROM 08Z - 12Z MONDAY.

NW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 18Z. NW
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE NE BY 03Z AT 10-15 KT THEN
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AFT 07Z THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY MORNING...VFR N OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. LOW CHANCE OF -SN
LONG ISLAND AND NYC METRO...WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE.

WITH THE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
-RA...POSSIBLY A WINTRY NIX IN THE MORNING INLAND.
.THURSDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AND SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
AROUND 5 FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGH
TODAY AND ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS.

SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS
SLOWER TO SUBSIDE...EVENTUALLY DROPPING BELOW 5 FT BY TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TUES WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN MID WEEK WITH WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS/NV
AVIATION...GC/MET
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
EQUIPMENT...