Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 292343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remainder of the Memorial Day weekend will be locally breezy
with scattered showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountains
of northeast Washington. West winds will gust as high as 25 to 35
mph through this evening with the highest gusts around Wenatchee
and Chelan. Temperatures will warm to above normal readings for
the middle to end of this week, with further warming next weekend
as afternoon temperatures reach the mid 80s to lower 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: Breezy winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph will
continue this evening over the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and West
Plains with a tight westerly surface pressure gradient. The
highest gusts early this evening are expected to occur along the
East Slopes of the Cascades through the Cascade gaps like the
Wenatchee Valley, down Lake Chelan, and through the Kittitas
Valley into the Vantage area where gusts of 35 mph or more will be
possible. Winds will decrease with the setting sun.

This evening will also feature showers and widely scattered
thunderstorms under the 500mb trough along the Canadian border
from north of Republic to Kettle Falls to Bonners Ferry. Portions
of southern Shoshone county, the Clearwaters, and the Camas
Prairie may also experience some early evening showers in the
vicinity of tail end of a weak front. Cells will be moving quickly
capable of brief downpours, wind gusts to 35 mph, and cloud to
ground lightning. As we lose daytime heating this evening, cells
will become increasingly scattered and decrease intensity.

Memorial Day (Monday): The low pressure trough that has been
anchored over British Columbia the last several days will move
through central and eastern Montana Monday allowing an upper level
ridge to build over the Pacific Northwest. Northwest winds of 5 to
15 mph Monday morning will weaken over most of the region during
the afternoon. A great day for picnics and outdoor activities
before the short work week begins for most folks. /GKoch

Tuesday through Thursday night: Models are in general agreement
of an upper ridge building over the area on Tuesday. The ridge
then flattens as a pair of short wave troughs pass through British
Columbia with the southern fringes passing through northern
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Main impact from these waves
will be passing mid and high clouds...along with breezy winds
through the Cascade gaps Wednesday evening. The Thursday wave may
be slightly stronger resulting in a chance of showers primarily to
the Cascade crest and the mountains near the Canadian border.
Temperatures will warm to above normal values Tuesday and
Wednesday as 850mb temperatures warm to 17-19C...and then
thickening mid and high clouds on Thursday should bring some
cooling...but with temperatures still above normal. JW

Friday through Sunday... Models in decent overall agreement of
the upper level ridge holding strong over the region through the
far extended forecast. This would result in dry and sunny
conditions with above normal temperatures. Similar to yesterday,
the biggest challenge is the high temperature forecast. Trended
temperatures downward some on Friday but showed a warming trend
from Thursday to Friday and onward. While model
spread/disagreement is still rather large on expected high
temperatures, above to well above normal temperatures can be
expected, or said another way, its going to be hot. Some rises on
streams can also be expected in response to these warm
temperatures as indicated by a few hydrographs late next
week. /Kalin

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms to the north and east
of TAF sites this evening will be gone by 3Z this evening.
Additionally the robust gusty westerly winds that have currently
peaked, some gusts as high as 35 mph in the Cascade Gaps, will
diminish this evening and be much less in strenght but still
blowing from the generaly west direction tonight and Monday. Smoke
from area fires may produce brief and intermittent MVFR visibility
concerns but thats about it. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  76  52  82 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  69  42  76  48  81 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        42  67  40  74  47  80 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  74  48  81  53  86 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  75  42  80  47  84 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  69  40  74  44  79 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        41  66  42  74  46  78 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     45  77  45  82  50  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      49  77  51  81  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           43  78  47  81  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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