Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 252326
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
426 PM PDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild and mostly dry weather pattern is expected through
Wednesday. Temperatures will be above average, with several days
of highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. A pattern change is expected
to arrive late in the week with chances for showers beginning
Thursday and continuing into the weekend. By next Saturday and
Sunday, afternoon temperatures will likely be in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night: High pressure will build into the
Inland Northwest with a return of late summer weather. Dry and
warmer weather can be expected under light easterly winds. May see
some sheltered spots radiate with some local chilly temperatures,
although no freezing temperatures are expected and may even see
some patchy valley fog. But overall, anticipate mostly clear skies
with some high clouds filtering through. Temperatures on Monday
will top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s, about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. /rfox.

Tuesday through Sunday: The Inland NW gradually becomes unsettled
and eventually becomes cooler. This includes a shower risk and
maybe some thunderstorms, especially toward the week`s end, and
occasionally breezy conditions. First Tuesday a weak cold front
pushes by. This will bring a shower threat to the Cascades and
perhaps near the Canadian border. The remainder of eastern
WA/north ID will see a band of clouds migrate by with the front
and maybe some sprinkles. Otherwise it looks dry. With and behind
the front expect increased winds. Some of the strongest winds are
expected near the Cascades and then down the Okanogan Valley
especially as the flow turns northerly and the air channels
through here. Speeds of 10-20 mph will be possible, with higher
gusts. There may be some elevated fire weather concerns near the
Cascades/Okanogan Valley too here but right now critical values
appears spotty. The northeast valleys and L-C Valley are apt to
remain more sheltered and see lighter winds. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday the front stalls and comes back north as the ridge
rebounds. This will largely result in variable clouds. Some shower
risk starts to develop around the mountains Wednesday night into
Thursday as a trough approaches. It will be accompanied by another
slight uptick in winds too.

Between Thursday night and Sunday the trough over the eastern
Pacific begins to move onshore, leading to the most unsettled part
of the forecast. Shortwaves rounding the trough will work with
deepening moisture and some instability to increase the shower
threat throughout the region. At this time the mountains have the
highest overall risk and the lee of the Cascades and deeper
Columbia Basin have the smallest risk. However some wet periods
are expected in the low lands; precise timing might need fine-
tuning but Friday appears to have the best risk for that. The
instability coming with this pattern change may lead to some
thunderstorms. Again forecast models point to Friday as having the
best overall risk, but some potential may linger near the Cascades
closer to the core of the trough into the weekend.

Snow levels between 9-12kft on Tuesday gradually drop to between
5-8kft by the weekend. The lowest of those will be toward the
Cascades near the trough core. So back-country/higher elevation
enthusiasts may have to watch for some snow there. Temperatures
are expected to slowly drop but remain above normal through
Thursday, holding in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Then Friday
temperatures drop back closer to normal, before dropping below
normal for the weekend. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Clear skies and light terrain driven winds are expected
at the TAF sites through 00z Tuesday...except for high cirrus
around 30,000 feet AGL. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  82  55  79  51  77 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  81  53  78  50  77 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        48  84  52  79  49  78 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       52  88  56  84  56  82 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Colville       40  82  48  80  43  78 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Sandpoint      40  76  47  75  46  74 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Kellogg        44  79  49  76  49  77 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Moses Lake     45  84  52  82  48  79 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      53  82  59  79  50  78 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Omak           45  83  53  78  46  77 /   0   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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