Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290155
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
955 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER RIDGING.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.