Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 011746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
146 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Upper level low pressure will produce a few showers across the
region this afternoon, with a slightly better chance for showers


For the afternoon update, made small adjustments to cloud cover
but kept PoPs the same. Cumulus has filled in where there were
cloud free skies earlier, which should help to slow warming
through the afternoon.

Closed low over western Ohio will slowly wobble north through
tonight with drier air wrapping into the system. This will allow
for at least partly sunny skies today with seasonable temperatures.
Still expect scattered to isolated showers to develop in bands as
spokes of energy pivot around the low. Convective temperatures
from this mornings sounding are in the mid 70`s so opted not to
add a thunder mention yet but may need to be added if we have more
sunshine than currently forecast.

The upper low will shift northeastward tonight allowing for
deeper layer southwesterly flow to become established. This will
allow for temperatures to stay warmer than average tonight but
with some loss of heating, widespread precipitation is not


Slow moving low will accelerate eastward Sunday, with the center
of the low moving into NY by evening. As it finally makes its
departure, some cooling aloft and support from a pivoting
shortwave should promote shower and isolated thunder development
Sunday afternoon, with the greatest likelihood north of

Ridging will begin to build eastward on Monday but with our region
in the northwest flow between the ridge and the departing low,
some widely scattered showers may be possible. High pressure
should return dry weather no later than Tuesday. Building heights
and warming aloft should keep temperatures just above seasonal


Upper ridge will maintain it`s hold through Wednesday, but after
this time, forecast uncertainty increases as the model handle the
speed of the next upper trough and associated front differently.
At this time, it appears the GFS is the slowest, as it deepens
the trough more than the other models. Opted to take a model blend
approach, with emphasis on the ECMWF for now. Temperatures were
thus kept above average until the potential front passage Friday.


Conditions are quite variable across ports with bands of MVFR
clouds and light showers rotating across the region, with areas of
VFR in between. IFR at KDUJ should break out to MVFR or a time
late afternoon and evening before IFR returns overnight. At other
ports expect a conditions Sunday morning similar to this morning
as MVFR stratus develops after sunrise, with IFR possible at
western ports. With closed low transitioning across the eastern
Great Lakes Sunday afternoon expect a few showers, as CIGs slowly
improve in by afternoon.

Building high pressure will give general VFR into mid week.




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