Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 021209
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TO BELOW FREEZING. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ONGOING SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND
SUBSIDENCE LIMITS LIFT AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS MORNING IS ICY ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ROADS THAT WERE WET
AND/OR SNOW/SLUSH COVERED FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS QUICKLY OVER THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE
LITTLE WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE ONLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND UPPER TEENS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS TIMING OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK
SLIGHTLY. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH THE COLD SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE CHANGING ALL OVER TO RAIN. HELD OFF ON
ADVISORIES FOR NOW TO LIMIT CONFUSION WITH CURRENT THE BLACK ICE
SPS...BUT EXPECT HEADLINES LATER TODAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE PERSISTENT AFTER CHANGING OVER TO RAIN..AND
THIS COMBINED WITH WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT
SNOW MELT UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL STREAM AND RIVER RISES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AND SOME ICE
COVER IS LIKELY TO POP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN BASINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
RACING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PROVIDE A QUIET BUT
COLD END TO THE WEEK. TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
SEPARATE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A GENERAL
MVFR FORECAST WITH OCCASIONAL IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG THROUGH
DAWN. AFTER THIS TIME...STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE
DISTRICT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT
STARTING TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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