Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS61 KPBZ 010122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH OH TERMINALS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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