Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280911
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
411 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TO PROVIDE THE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE LONG GONE BY DAWN. THE CAA WILL END WITH THE
EJECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD POOL WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKEN THIS
MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES FOR MERCER AND VENANGO COUNTIES AND
ALSO FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING.

TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY.

WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO
AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007-008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






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