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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301915
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
315 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PA AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
TO WANE BEFORE SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH LOWER POPS
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING AND WEAK
UPPER IMPULSE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH.
CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION WEST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SPREADING WEST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY BUT MODELS
HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO TIMING THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY
MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING
MORE ZONAL. NEXT FRONT MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE VCSH
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR MORGANTOWN...WHICH HAS THE SMALLEST CHANCE
OF RECEIVING A SHOWER. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING MVFR OBSERVATION
OR TWO IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DROP
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 00Z...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES AT FKL/DUJ. A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$