Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 010054
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
854 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions overnight are expected before a cold front
increases rain chances for Friday. High pressure will bring dry
and mild weather through the holiday weekend. An approaching low
pressure system will increase rain chances on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue dry and mild conditions
tonight. Moisture will slowly increase ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough and thus cloud coverage will increase as Friday
progresses.

The aforementioned shortwave trough and associated surface cold
front is expected to increase shower and thunderstorm chances,
especially in the afternoon. However, guidance continues to
indicate limited moisture with the passage of the trough and thus
POPs remain in the chance category. Warm advection ahead of the
front will be tempered by clouds and showers, keeping high
temperatures from the mid 70s far north to lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will quickly exit quickly with showers ending in
the southeast ridges by Friday evening. Dry and mild high
pressure will then dominate through Sunday with near seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR overnight as high pressure continues to transition over the
area. A front will cross tomorrow with increased southwesterly
winds and scattered showers and potentially thunderstorms
developing during the late morning and early afternoon. There is
some uncertainty on whether it will be unstable enough for TSRA
at this time so have left only mention of shra ahead and along the
front for now.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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