Area Forecast Discussion
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571
FXUS61 KPBZ 291346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWER CHANCES
TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN LATER SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN PA BY MIDDAY...BLOSSOMING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN PA. HUNG ON TO CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AS MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED UNDER THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY FOR A PORTION OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN THE REST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. STILL SEEING
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT
MODELS ARE SPEEDING UP THEIR ONSET.

TEMPERATURE INCREASES SATURDAY...AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN...DIFFERENCES IN
OPERATIONAL MODEL DATA WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
LOW...MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL RELY ON THE
SUPERBLEND HERE TO ATTEMPT TO OVERCOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. A DRY PERIOD APPEARS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/DEPTH OF A DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH
FROM WEDNESDAY ON...AS A WESTERN RIDGE ELICITS A RESPONSE
DOWNSTREAM. CHANCE POPS APPEAR WISE FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. USED
SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL MIXING
THIS AFTERNOON HELPS LIFT CIGS TO MVFR. TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR
WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AGAIN...BUT CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS FOR THE MOST PART.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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