Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 262321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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