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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081223
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
723 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND GENERATE THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS FOR ONSET OF LGT RAIN
AND SNOW ALNG AND W OF THE I79 CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH OF NEW CASTLE.

THIS LGT PCPN AREA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CROSSING DISTURBANCE
FUELED BY ONBOARD MID LVL MSTR SUPPLY. THAT SYSTEM WL DRAG A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN.

MDL OMEGA FIELDS AGAIN EXHIBIT LTD ASCENT WITH WEAKLY FORCED FRONT...HENCE
CHC POPS...LGT WORDING...AND LTD QPF WL SUFFICE FOR PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TDAS BNDRY LYR WARMTH WL GIVE WAY TO COLD ADVCTN TNGT...THUS A
PHASE CHANGE TO LGT SNOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRES WL SLITHER OVR THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BUT THIS BRIEF
INTRUSION OF COLD AIR LKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH FLOW PROGRESSION
RESUMING WARM ADVCTN LATE SUNDAY...WHICH WL DRIVE TEMPS BACK ABOVE
THE AVERAGES FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONLY ONE SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH IN THE LONG TERM AND IT REMAINS A
QUESTION MARK. MODELS HAVE YET TO COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND A
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. HUGE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING...
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...NOT ONLY BETWEEN MODELS...
BUT ALSO BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. ONE ASPECT THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IS WARMER AIR MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR RAIN...
EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG ALTHOUGH SOME LGT PCPN MAY
ENCROACH OVR PORTS N OF I 70. DEGRADATION TO MVFR IS ANTICIPATED
AS COLD ADVCTN IS INITIATED WITH PASSAGE OF TDAS CDFNT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH MID WEEK LOW PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

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