Area Forecast Discussion
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701
FXUS61 KPBZ 251843
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
143 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds expected today behind a crossing front. Building
high pressure will result in dry and mild conditions through
the first part of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gusty west winds will lessen by this evening as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Cloud coverage will gradually diminish as
high pressure builds...with cirrus largely gone by daybreak.

Monday will feature plenty of sunshine and temperatures 10
degrees above normal under increasing subsidence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will center itself over the central Appalachians
by Tuesday. Developing southwest flow behind the high Tuesday
will allow a bit of warming, with some 60 degree readings
reappearing near the Mason-Dixon Line.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shortwave trough, strengthening over the central CONUS
Wednesday, will tap into southern stream moisture, pulling it
northward toward the region. A weak wave in the flow may allow
for some shower activity Wednesday but the better chance, at
least at this juncture, will be Thursday as the warm front lifts
over the upper Ohio Valley. A split- flow pattern is indicated
in the long term guidance as a low wraps up just south of the
Great Lakes and another forms off the coast. This may be
favorable for a dry slot/diminished QPF, which is something we
need at this time. Still, with this system a few days away,
stayed close to a blend of guidance, which has likely to
categorical PoPs Thurs and Thurs night. System translates
quickly eastward by Friday, with cooler temperatures and a
chance of snow returning. Showery precipitation will continue
in northwest flow through Friday night before tapering off
Saturday as midlevel ridging approaches.

Temperatures will run above average until the system late in the
week passes, and then cool back to seasonal normals for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR expected through the period under building high pressure.
Gusty west winds will lessen by this evening as the pressure
gradient relaxes.

OUTLOOK...
High pressure building in for early this week will limit
restriction potential.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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