Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271245 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 745 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances return today with a crossing warm front. A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through mid week until the passage of a cold front returns wintry weather for the last half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid and high clouds have essentially overspread the entirety of the CWA this morning. RUC/RAP/HRRR soundings indicate a fairly dry layer generally below 5 kft still resides over the southern flank of the area even as radar mosaics indicate precipitation is starting to spread from south to north into the CWA. This dry air will likely take a few hours to overcome, during which time temperatures with warm advection should continue to rise above freezing. Thus, most all areas will start off as and remain all rain when precipitation spreads northeastward through the afternoon as warm advection continues. Under weak warm advection through the day, temperatures should steadily increase, however owing to virtually no chance of sunshine, highs will not really take off. That said, as 850 mb temperatures rise to around 0C by the afternoon, temperatures should rise into and through the 40s at most spots. Fries && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Precip chances should end this evening as the shortwave exits and the warm front lifts N of the area. The region is progged to be in the warm sector in SW flow ahead of a trough advancing ewd from the Western CONUS. Several shortwaves and increasing low level jet support are progged to cross the area with periodic showers expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night with elevated instability and increasing shear. The western trough is progged to approach the Great Lakes region Wednesday as an associated surface low tracks from the Midwest into Southern Ontario. Increasing speed and directional shear is progged through the day as the low`s associated cold front approaches. 500mb winds approaching 100kt on both NAM and GFS model soundings is indicative of the strong jet progged over the area. Severe thunderstorms are possible if enough instability develops during the day. This will be monitored over the next couple of days, but a mention will be included in the hazardous weather outlook. Broad upper troughing is expected over the area Wednesday night and Thursday, along with eventual lake and terrain enhancement in cold advection. This should keep snow showers chances in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above average Tue and Wed, returning to near or below seasonal levels Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad upper troughing is expected to continue through late week, with a reinforcing crossing shortwave/surface low with some snow Thursday night and Friday. General zonal flow is progged by the weekend as the trough exits, with mainly dry conditions and moderating temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR can be expected through daybreak although mid level cloudiness is increasing as a shortwave trough approaches. That disturbance is forecast to generate some light rain and snow at ZZV and MGW this morning, with light showers lingering along a northward-developing warm front through the day. MVFR cloudiness under the crossing shortwave has been limited to ports south of PIT given low level moisture expectations with the better chance of precip, but have also introduced cloud- restrictions for FKL and DUJ during the eve given front- placement expectations. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely Tuesday as precip develops with another shortwave in strengthening wsw flow. More restrictions and wind problems can be expected with, and in the wake of a Wednesday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.