Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020608 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 111 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN HALF AS CLOUD DECK HAS EXPANDED WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE. RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH 500H TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH OHIO TODAY. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A SLOW MOVING SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE CLOSE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF MY FORECAST AREA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS VERY WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP AS HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEN RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. END TO PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. IMPROVEMENT MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... INCREASED VISIBILITIES IN THE LATEST SET OF TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR FKL AND DUJ AS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT HOW FALL TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN REMAIN RELATIVELY WIDE. MAINTAINED VCSH MENTION FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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