Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181540 AAB AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1140 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLY WARM DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW-MOVG UPR LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO WRN ZONES THRU RMNDR OF THE MRNG AND WILL CONT INTO THE AFTN. CVRG OF SHWRS WILL INCR ACRS SRN ZONES IN VCTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. RELATIVELY DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NE WILL RMN ENSCONCED OWING TO WEAK MID-LVL FLOW. GRADIENT IN MAXIMA XPCD...ALTHOUGH MRNG CLRG HAS AIDED IN FOCUSED HEATING ACRS CNTRL ZONES. 12Z KPIT RAOB SUGGESTS MAXIMA IN UPR 70S TDA...APRCHG 80 IN ERN OH. ONLY MODEST INSTBY RESULTING FROM WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE CHC OF TSTMS THIS AFTN AMID GREATER CVRG OF SHWRS. POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY TDA AND TNGT TO REFLECT ONGOING AND XPCD SHWRS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS. INCRG BNDRY LYR MSTR OVNGT WILL AID IN GENERATION OF STRATUS. CLDY SKIES XPCD OVNGT...WHICH WILL AID IN RETARDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINIMA IN MID 50S-LWR 60S XPCD AS A RESULT. PCPN WILL BCM FOCUSED IN HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TNGT AS UPR WAVE MOVES SLOWLY EWD. POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. DECAYING UPR LOW WILL LINGER ON SUN WITH VERY MOIST AMS BCMG BETTER SITUATED ACRS FCST AREA. RGN WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG WITH ONLY MODEST HEATING REQUIRED. MAXIMA WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TDA SUBJECT TO DEG OF CLD CVR THAT RMNS SUN MRNG. UPDATE...KRAMAR
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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FRONTAL SYSTEM FINALLY TO PUSH NORTHWARD LATER MONDAY WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES IN PART DUE TO MIDWEST CUTOFF LOW PUSHING EAST. MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT STILL DRAPED CLOSE TO OR JUST NORTH OF REGION. MID-WEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST BUT LOSE INTENSITY AND IN FACT OPENS UP AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...SYSTEM SLOWS AND TAKES IT TIME TO EXIT REGION BY END OF PERIOD. AS A CONSEQUENCE...POPS CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDS XPCD TDA. SHWRS WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM SRN OH TWD THE ERN OH TERMINALS...BUT THESE TOO WILL BE GENLY VFR. COMBINATION OF INCRG MSTR AND COOLING OVNGT TEMPS LKLY WILL LEAD TO STRATUS LYR NR 1.5 KFT LATE TNGT THRU MRNG. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS OWING TO PERSISTENT OVNGT WIND. IF WIND DIES...VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL BE PSBL AT MANY TERMINALS. UPDATE...KRAMAR .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNALLY-GENERATED SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BCM INCRGLY LKLY DURG THE FIRST HALF OF THE WK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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