Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011716 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 116 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND PERIDAWN FOG. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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