Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260813 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 413 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Another day of warm and dry weather. A weak frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms tonight and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Dry and even warmer today as strong high pressure remains over the area and warm air advection will be in full tilt as a strong southerly flow takes over.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Shower and thunderstorms chances return later tonight as a weak and slow moving cold front approaches and drags through the area. Will leave in the chance for thunder, but most of the instability is elevated, shear is weak, there is not much of an air mass change behind the boundary, and the time of day will all be a hindrance toward the development of convection. Front takes its time to pass through the area Monday. Without a good push from the upper levels, the boundary will make it to Central Pennsylvania in the afternoon and then washout, as what limited support aloft moves toward the Mid-Atlantic. Will decrease pops from west to east Monday and also cloud cover. A secondary cold front will slowly swing through late Monday night and Tuesday. Again, it will be passing through with little instability or upper level support. The difference with this second front, will be the push of cooler air behind it. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper troughing will slowly become the norm over the region from mid-week onward. This is likely to trend temperatures back toward and eventually below normal through the week into next weekend. However, without any significant push of humid and unstable air, conditions should be more quiet than they have been recently. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Little in the way of significant fog is expected this morning. Scattered cumulus will form by midday in the heat of the day. Southerly wind of around 10 knots are expected this afternoon. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shower and thunderstorm restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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