Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250805 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 305 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Shower chances return today with the passage of a cold front. Rain and snow showers are possible tonight with a trough of low pressure before high pressure returns dry weather on Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Clouds should overspread the area this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Weak upper support and a lack of moisture should preclude rain with it`s passage this morning. Upstream sfc obs show no precip reaching the ground under composite radar echoes. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon as an upper trough approaches the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. Highs are expected to be a few degrees above seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The upper trough will cross the region this evening, with continued rain and eventual snow showers in cold advection. Lake and terrain enhancement should be minimal with marginal lake surface to 850mb temperature differences, and rapidly lowering temperature inversions overnight. Moisture in the snow growth region on model soundings is also not optimal. Less than an inch of snow is expected in the favored areas. Building surface high pressure should result in a a clearing trend and dry weather Sunday through Monday. Temperatures are expected to be near, or a few degrees below, the seasonal averages.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Dry weather is expected through mid week under general zonal flow aloft. A trough is progged to quickly advance from the Wrn CONUS to the Ern CONUS by late week, returning precip chances to the forecast. Above average temperatures are expected until the passage of the trough, with readings forecast to drop to below seasonal levels Fri.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A low level jet ahead of the approaching front will mar VFR conditions this morning. Condition deterioration to MVFR can be expected with the encroachment of that front as Saturday progresses. Precipitation is expected to remain scattered though. .Outlook... Restriction potential will continue through early Sunday as cold northwest flow spawns MVFR stratocu and scattered showers. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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