Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200436 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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POST MIDNGT UPDATE FEATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD AND TEMPS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MDL TRENDS. IN GENL...WARM ADVCTN AND INCRSG CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG. FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WL RMN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE CLDS AND SFC WIND OVR THAT AREA INCRS. OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV...WITH TROF AXIS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MRNG...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR THE UPR OH REGION BY EVE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING ADJUSTED FOR A LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS. MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH. BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO HAVE HELD AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW SHOULD ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CI THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. .AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE RGN.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012- 021-022.
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&& $$ 15/07

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