Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240014 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 814 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A crossing cold front will generate some showers tonight, mainly along and north of Interstate 80. Cooler weather can be expected for the week.
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Changes for the mid eve update featured adjustments to precip probability, mainly over northern zones based on the latest radar and high res model trends. Previous... A cold front is progged to quickly advance out of the Midwest, crossing the region overnight. The best moisture and upper support is progged north of I 80, where brief likely POPS were maintained. With limited moisture available, only isolated to scattered showers are expected further south, with areas in eastern OH remaining dry. A crossing low level jet should also result in some gusty winds overnight in the ridges. Lows should stay above seasonal levels tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold advection in northwest flow, and proximity to an upper trough across the NE CONUS, should keep stratocu across the region Monday. Limited lake enhancement could also result in isolated showers especially early, though lowering inversion heights should limit this potential. Building surface high pressure return dry weather to the area through Wednesday, though a gradual increase in clouds is expected by mid week in warm advection. Below seasonal average temperatures are expected through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A trough advancing out of the Midwest should return increasing shower chances to the region Wednesday night and Thursday. A Western CONUS trough is progged to advance rapidly toward the area by the weekend keeping unsettled weather and cooler than seasonal average temperatures in the forecast. Followed close to the Superblend guidance, with some blend of WPC guidance, to smooth out some of the more significant operational model differences especially toward the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... General VFR with gusty southwest surface wind will give way to scattered showers, MVFR deterioration, and low level wind shear as a cold front encroaches in Upper Ohio Valley airspace. Despite a trailing disturbance and slight showers chances, improvement to VFR is anticipated by midday Monday. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for general restrictions will be with Thursday low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.