Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010552 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 152 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS MAINTAINING INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS... SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION. USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND NAM. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT UNDER BUILDING RIDGING. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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