Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301257 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 857 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE EARLY FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THE EARLIER INCLINATION THAT THERE WOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WERE WELL FOUNDED. IN FACT...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SOUTH OF I-70 IS RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS MORNING...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET TO MIX OUT FORTHWITH. SKIES WERE SUMMARILY REDUCED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO SECONDARILY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE MORE INTERMEDIATE UPDATES WERE MADE TO SKIES THIS MORNING AS WELL AS PUSHING BACK RAIN CHANCES A BIT THIS AFTERNOON BASED UPON GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LACK OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO 18Z. ONCE SOME MIXING OUT DOES OCCUR...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE EXAMINED A BIT AS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSOLATION MAY YIELD UPWARD TEMPERATURE MOBILITY BEYOND WHAT THE FORECAST CONTAINS AT THE MOMENT. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... DEEP MOISTURE AND WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF MY AREA. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. MODEL DIFFERENCE CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW. LATEST NAM IS GENERALLY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE GEFS...WHILE IT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CMC AND GEPS. THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO IMPACT THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY... THIS WILL DETERMINE IF THE AREA BREAKS OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IN TURN INSTABILITY INCREASES IN A MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS. FOR THE SUNDAY FORECAST...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF MODEL DATA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS WELL. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONGLY ANCHORED PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AS A RIDGE LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AFTER A DRY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWER CHANCES WILL RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR ST IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MRNG AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACRS THE AREA AND GRADUALLY VEERS LGT SFC WIND TWD THE EAST. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENTS WL NOT LAST AS RAIN WL BE DVLPG THIS AFTN WITH WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INTENSIFYING WITH THE ADVN OF LOW PRES. WIDESPREAD IFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT IN CONTG RAIN. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON AS LOW PRESSURE COMPLETES PASSAGE OVER THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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