Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242134 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 534 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the seven day forecast. Rain is expected Sunday into Sunday night, and again Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Only made some tweaks to sky cover and the hourly temp/dewpoint curves for the evening. HRRR/RAP are suggesting that a few showers could sneak into the I-80 corridor prior to 12Z. Will watch trends and possibly add a small PoP to this area in the next update. Forecast on track otherwise. Previous discussion... A warm front will remain nearly stationary over New York tonight, eventually dropping a bit farther south into Pennsylvania on Saturday. Expect that any precipitation tonight should remain well north of the forecast area, with chance pops dropping into the Interstate 80 corridor by Saturday afternoon. These pops may need to be spread farther south, but with some model differences, have decided to be conservative with PoPs for now. Models are in pretty good agreement that it will be a warm 24 hour period. Tonight`s lows should only drop into the 50s, while high temperatures tomorrow will be dependent on the eventual position of the front. Current forecast brings northern counties "only" into the lower 60s, while south of Interstate 70, 70s are expected once again. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... While low pressure over the Plains drifts northeastward through the period, a front will rotate through the region Sunday into Sunday night. Have continued the categorical pops in the forecast, along with a chance of thunder Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers may linger into Monday, primarily across eastern counties. The frontal passage will do little to change temperatures, with values remaining well above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak low pressure will race across the area Monday night into Tuesday, bringing another round of showers to the area. High pressure behind the low will yield northerly winds, ushering in some cooler air. Even so, temperatures should not drop below seasonal norms. Dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, with another round of showers forecast for Friday. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered mid-level cloud deck remains over the area, with gusty southwest winds. A plume of low-level moisture, currently over the mid-Mississippi valley will stream northeastward tonight, eventually encountering the frontal zone set up north of the area. This will lead to an increase in cloud cover across our far northwest periphery, and eventually drop ceilings along northern ports of FKL/DUJ to IFR. Just how far south this boundary makes it remains to be seen. At this time, have the low-level moisture staying north of PIT, but inserted several hours of scattered MVFR for PIT/BVI for the possibility. VFR is expected to hold through Saturday for ports south of BVI. Wind gusts should subside with the setting sun this evening, but an enhanced low-level jet remains over the northern portion of the forecast area. This necessitated the inclusion of a few hours of llws in the FKL/DUJ overnight TAF, while other locations should remain just under the threshold. South- southwest winds will continue into Saturday, but will generally remain less than 10kts. Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is not expected until the approach of low pressure early on Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.