Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231737 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 137 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MID-WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SLOW-MOVG SHWRS AND EVENTUALLY TSTMS WILL DVLP THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG A STALLED BNDRY WITH N-S ORIENTATION FROM NEAR DUBOIS TO NEAR MORGANTOWN...AND IN THE RDGS AS A RESULT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. INCRG CNVCTV CVRG XPCD LATE THIS AFTN THRU MID-EVE AS H5 SHRTWV TROF APRCHS. NLY STEERING FLOW WILL DIRECT THIS CNVCTN SWD ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO TRAINING. IN ADDITION...SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF CAPE PROFILE IS LOCATED BLW FRZG LVL...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE...AND THAT PCPN WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT. ALTHOUGH PWATS ARE LWR THAN ONE TYPICALLY WOULD XPC FOR FLASH FLOODING DURG THIS TIME OF YEAR...CNVCTN HAS OVERPERFORMED FOR THE LAST SVRL DAYS...LEADING TO DAILY EPISODES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE EPISODE LAST NIGHT FOCUSED ON WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE CTYS... WHERE CNVCTV THREAT WILL PRESENT TDA. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN CTYS...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW. OVNGT CNVCTN IN THE ERN RDGS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TNGT. GIVEN LINGERING MSTR AND CLRG SKY...FOG IS XPCD TO FORM AGAIN TNGT AMID LGT WIND. SOME MAY BE LCLLY DENSE...AND A DENSE FOG ADZY MAY BE WARRANTED IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FCST AREA ONCE IT IS CLEAR WHERE THE BNDRY BCMS SITUATED AND WHERE ADDITIONAL RAIN REINFORCES THE MOIST AMS. UPR RDG OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EWD ON SUN...WITH SFC HIPRES AND SUBSIDENCE AIDING IN WWD EVACUATION OF LOW-LVL MSTR. ANY ISOLD MRNG SHWRS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS AMS DRIES. MAXIMA IN THE LWR 80S CAN BE XPCD...WITH A SLGT LWRG OF HUMIDITY. RDG WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SUN NGT...LEADING TO CLRG SKY AND DECRG HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR ADVCTS WWD. MINIMA SUN NGT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...REACHING THE UPR 50S-MID 60S. KRAMAR && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGING WL CONT TO BLD ERY IN THE WK WITH DRY WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE RIDGE WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY MID WK...ALLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WK SHRTWV/SFC BNDRY. THE UPR FLOW IS PROGGED TO BCM WLY BY LT WK...WITH THE BNDRY STALLING NR THE RGN. WITH SPECIFICS IN QN...MAINTAINED LOW CHC OR UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHC POPS MUCH OF THE PD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST THIS AFTN AND EVE EXCEPT IN SHWRS THAT MAY IMPACT KDUJ AND KLBE. IFR/LIFR FOG/CIGS COULD RETURN LATE TNGT AS AMS NOT XPCD TO BE DISPLACED. OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE RGN SUN-TUE. MODEST DRYING AT SFC MAY PRECLUDE FOG DVLPMT THRU AT LEAST TUE. SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BCM INCRGLY LKLY AFTER WED WHEN CDFNT APRCHS...WITH ATTENDANT VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ073>076. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ021>023-041. && $$

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