Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300922 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 522 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WITH 515AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE REGION. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL STILL LEAVE NUMBERS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THAT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO START AS SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...BUT ALL PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON. AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHEELING AND MORGANTOWN...BUT IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT...MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND LIKELY POPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TUESDAY WILL HAVE A PRETTY WIDE SPREAD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH WHERE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LINGERING SHOWER MAY PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ONCE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS SHOULD CLEAR ALL CLOUD COVER. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST MOST OF THE DAY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS STILL LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME. REGARDLESS OF TIMING...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH WARMING INTO THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS TRENDS AND WPC GUIDANCE WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LIKELY TO REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A FEW DAYS. THE THURSDAY WARMTH WILL THUS BE SHORT LIVED...BUT THE COOLDOWN WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS THIS PAST WEEKEND GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW THAT IS PROGGED ALOFT. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMP FORECAST. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A WIND VEER TO THE WEST. CONDITION IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED AFTER DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION INCREASE. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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