Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300544 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 144 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Quick update to make minor changes to PoPs and weather grids. Focus remains near and east of I-79. Precipitation rates have been reasonable for the most part but will need to monitor localized areas for potential minor issues. Previous discussion... Adjustments to the overnight forecast were made to shift main areas of precipitation to the southwest over southwestern PA and eastern OH counties as focus for further activity is expected to remain in the vicinity of the occlusion. This is supported by recent hi-res model output. Another 1-1.5 inches will be possible overnight over eastern Ohio/ southwest PA but rain rates are expected to be manageable and overall totals will remain below FFG values so no additional watches are planned at this time. The current FF watch will be maintained for the time being for Garrett, Preston, and Tucker counties given the observed 2-3 inches of rainfall over the past 24 hours and continued potential for higher rates as we head into the night. Will address this again later this evening as things evolve. Strong downslope winds will be possible along the western slopes of the ridges in the Morgantown-to-Latrobe vicinities with strong perpendicular component, ridgetop inversion, and negative wind shear meeting critical value thresholds. Latest model soundings and potential temperature / component-along wind cross sections support this idea as well. Wind orientation and degraded mixing still raises uncertainty but given the magnitude and projected height of the low level jet the wind advisory will remain in effect through mid Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and gusty wind will linger into Saturday as the nearly stationary mature low pressure system gradually fills. As the low dislodges and slowly creeps northward Saturday, rain will become increasingly scattered. No real changes were made for this forecast period other than to tweak POPs and temperature based on Superblend guidance. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Building high pressure is forecast to return drier and warmer weather as the week progresses. Superblend guidance, tweaked for POP continuity, was also used for this period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Bands of showers are continuing to rotate over the area, although coverage should wane a bit towards sunrise. Conditions will bounce between VFR and MVFR through the night, with some brief drops to IFR still possible. DUJ, in moist easterly flow, should remain mainly IFR through sunrise. VFR will become a bit more prevalent during the day Friday as moisture drops off a bit. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected at most terminals during the afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens a bit. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots are still possible in downsloping off of the ridges in the LBE area, although these winds may not be seen at the airport proper. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered restrictions can be expected into Monday as the upper level low lingers, then slowly lifts north of the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today FOR MDZ001. OH...None. PA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today FOR PAZ073>076. WV...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today FOR WVZ510>514. && $$

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