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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211132 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 632 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE HIGH HANGING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL OPEN AT TIMES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S LOOK GOOD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THEN THEN BEGIN TO BREAK ALLOWING FOR COLDER READINGS AND DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD NEW MAV GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY. GFS AND NEW ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM WORKING NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS ALSO COMING INTO LINE FOR A BIT OF A COLDER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE TIME RANGE IS SO FAR OUT DID NOT LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW SHOWERS MIXING NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE DEFINITE AT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO ADD SNOW TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONCERN TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS AT KPIT...KBVI...AND KHLG WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AT KDUJ AND KFKL LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH CIGS BREAKING AT KMGW/KZZV THIS AFTN. FURTHER NORTHWARD...CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT 3-4KFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KDUJ AND KFKL THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
