Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240601 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 101 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE STRATIFORM RAINFALL ARE ADVANCING NORTHWARD AND ACROSS I-80 AT THIS HOUR. A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FOLLOWING IT AND IS ALSO WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE DEEPENING TROPOPAUSE FOLD REMAINS SPLAYED OUT FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO RIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING AND VERY EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF THE 50-60 KTS OF AVAILABLE MOMENTUM. GIVEN THAT WE ARE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA...IT WOULD SEEM THE VERY STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS INDICATE 45 KTS IS STILL A VERY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR GUSTING POTENTIAL IN MANY SPOTS. AS SUCH...THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA. COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001. OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041. && $$

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