Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190505 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 105 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... NO CHANGES NEED TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO TEMPERATURES USING LATEST LAMP NUMBERS. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT 850 BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING NORTHWARD IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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