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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 072107
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN MONDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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INCRG SBSDNC UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING A DCR IN CLD COVER AND
COLD TEMPS TNGT. LT TNGT...CLDS WL BEGIN TO INCR FM THE S AHD OF
AN APCHG SHRTWV. LOW WL BE 10-15 DEG BLO SEASONAL AVGS TNGT.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SNW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE RGN FM THE S SUN MRNG AS A
SHRTWV APCHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES/SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN WL MIX
WITH SLEET...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA ALSO PSBL. THE
EXCEPTION WL BE IN TUCKER AND GARRET COUNTIES WHERE MORE QPF IS
PROGGED...RESULTING IN ADVY CRITERIA SNOW AND ICE ACCUMS.
CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO AN ADVY BASED ON THE EXPD
SNOW/ICE TOTALS. MDLS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER S AND E WITH HIGHER
QPF. IN GENL EXPTG 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET WITH A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE FM FZRA IN THE ADVY AREA. FURTHER NW...TAPERED
POPS OFF INTO THE CHC CATEGORY AS THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
OMEGA DOESN/T SPPRT MUCH PCPN. MAY NEED ADVYS EXTENDED SUN NGT FOR
SOME AREAS THAT GET FZRA BUT WITH LOW CONF AND LGT PCPN WL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF MON BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. ANOTHER WK
SHRTWV CROSSES TUE BUT WITH LMTD MOISTURE KEPT SNW SHWR POPS IN
THE CHC CATEGORY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SHUNTED OVR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT. COLD TEMPS AND GENLY
PCPN FREE POPS WERE FORECAST USING A COMBO OF WPC WHICH HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF. ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WERE
MAINTAINED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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STRATO-CU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY REMAIN ACROSS KMGW
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY
KMGW WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR SNOW IS EXPECTED. SNOW AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL THEN WORK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WILL HAVE CHANGED TO ALL RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL VFR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO SPAWN PRECIP ON SUNDAY OVER
THE UPPER MONONGAHELA AND CHEAT BASINS. CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGES...BUT ACTION LEVELS SHOULD BE REACHED
ALONG THE MONONGAHELA AND OHIO RIVERS.

SUMMARY: A RIVER RISE OF 5 TO 9 FEET IS OCCURRING TODAY ON THE
MONONGAHELA AND OHIO RIVERS. A SECONDARY RISE IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED FOR MONDAY. FLOWS AND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUESDAY.

AREA RIVERS WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE TUESDAY.
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&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ041.
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&&

$$

07/10