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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250320
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1020 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CONTINUES AREAWIDE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS A CLEARLY DEFINED BACK EDGE IS
EVIDENT ON THE LOWEST SCANS OF TPIT AND KPIT RADARS.
UPSTREAM...OVER THE MOSTLY FROZEN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...RADAR
ECHOES SAMPLED A LITTLE FURTHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SFC TROF THAT RUNS W TO E OVER LAKE
HURON. WILL BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT SNOW STREAM INTO THE NW ZONES BY
06Z. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
SPATIALLY AND IN INTENSITY AS THE MORE POTENT LOW APPROACHES BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$