


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --709 FXUS61 KPBZ 010201 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1001 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are then expected again on Tuesday with a crossing cold front. A few storms could produce damaging winds and localized flooding on Tuesday. Dry weather with slightly above normal temperatures returns through Saturday save a chance of showers and storms on Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGES: - Convection waning tonight --------------------------------------------------------------- Recent satellite imagery shows cloud tops warming across the region, indicating convection is waning. Expired the Flood Watch, with the potential for heavy rain ending. The main shortwave has exited the region this evening, though a few showers or thunderstorms will linger overnight. The potential for severe storms has also ended as instability has diminished. Patchy fog and stratus is expected to develop overnight with low level moisture in place. Overnight lows are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and thunderstorms with another risk for severe and heavy rainfall Tuesday. - Temperatures climb a bit with drier weather on Wednesday. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Another round of showers and storms will develop on Tuesday along and ahead of a passing cold front and mid level trough. Some uncertainty arises with potential morning convection along a pre- frontal trough, especially in northern WV and southwest PA. Not all CAMs have this, but if it does develop, it could taint the local environment ahead of the afternoon FROPA. What else it could do is enhance the flooding threat in the same area with several rounds of showers and storms in a still tropical-like environment with near 2" PWATs. Faster storm motion should again preclude more notable flood threats, but the environment will support heavy rainfall. With the frontal passage, HREF prob for 1000 J/kg SBCAPE and 30 knots of deep layer shear reaches 70-80%, so again a favorable environment to support organization and a damaging wind threat. Highest probability for severe at this point looks to be north of Pittsburgh, but with morning uncertainty that threat could shift farther south. SPC has maintained the expanded Marginal Risk (1/5) as far back as DUJ to PIT to HLG. A dry day comes Wednesday in the wake of the front with surface high pressure nosing in from the west. Dew points come down back into the low to mid 60s but temperatures are still likely to breach 85F for highs with up to an 80% chance in southeast Ohio and the southwest PA urban areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front Thursday brings back showers and storms. - July 4th holiday looks dry. - Rain chances return late next weekend. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A shortwave will churn through the ECONUS longwave trough on Thursday and kick a cold front through the area from the northwest. Timing remains a bit uncertain, but passage is likely some time late morning to mid-afternoon which will return the chance for showers and storms. It remains unclear how much effect the high and associated lingering subsidence may have as the front butts up against it. Dew points ahead of it look to sit in the low 60s with not much return flow on Wednesday, but the NBM prob for >1000 J/kg SBCAPE is around 50-60% in the afternoon hours. Deep layer shear may be the lacking component with the best forcing and flow displaced to the north with the shortwave. Still, machine learning does peg at least a low-end chance of severe weather with the passage, contingent on it being at a favorable diurnal time. Headed into the fourth, ensembles are in good agreement on a return of mid-level ridging behind the departing longwave. Some subtle timing differences arise with how quickly the ridge builds which suggests that high temperatures are lower confidence right now, but some of the MaxT spread has decreased with a trend toward a warmer solution in the mid to upper 80s. Rain chances are low in any scenario at less than 20% with dry air advecting in in the wake of Thursday`s boundary. The ridge flattens out into the weekend with a mid-level zonal flow pattern taking over. Ensembles do agree on low pressure development across the Northern Plains sometime Friday into Saturday and quickly sliding east, but disagreement on timing lends low confidence precipitation chances locally as the attendant surface cold front follows along with it. Most of Saturday looks dry at this time with even the faster solutions holding precip chances off until early Sunday, so most likely will see a more unsettled pattern return for the latter half of the weekend and into next week. Temperatures around average through the second half of the week may warm to slightly above average for the weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening in a very moist airmass behind a warm front. Brief periods of heavy rainfall/IFR visibility and gusty winds will be possible in the heavier storms. Kept 2-3 hour TEMPO groups to illustrate most likely timing for additional waves before activity eventually begins to taper off with the loss of diurnal instability and as the shortwave exits. Left VCSH at most sites into overnight hours due to uncertainty regarding precip end times. Lingering low-level moisture will lead to an MVFR/IFR stratus deck overnight, with enough mixing remaining to keep widespread fog from developing. Slow improvement is expected after sunrise, followed by an additional round of showers and thunderstorms late morning through afternoon with an approaching cold front. Outlook... VFR returns Wednesday under high pressure, before restriction and thunderstorm potential returns with a Thursday cold front. VFR is expected again by Friday under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --PA...None. OH...None. WV...None.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WM NEAR TERM...WM SHORT TERM...MLB LONG TERM...Rackley/MLB AVIATION...Cermak/CL