Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030339 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1139 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LATE EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS FORE REDUCED RAIN COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST THIS EVE. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING UPR TROUGH WL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START WL THUS DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR/PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU...AND A FEW SCT SHOWERS S-SE OF PIT...SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU TUE EVE WITH AN APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AS MIXING INCREASES. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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