Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260359 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1159 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... While showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday, the rest of the seven day forecast should be dry with near normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Main change was to add some clouds southeast of Pittsburgh as stratocumulus has expanded once again over the area. Hi-res models have this largely dissipating over the next few hours and have played the grids that way, although clouds may hug the eastern slopes a little longer. Valley fog is still expected as the rivers are quite warm. Reduced low temperatures slightly given the low dewpoints. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... While widespread cloud cover is not expected tomorrow morning, valleys are expected to have fog around sunrise. After fog clears out, a mostly sunny day is forecast. With winds having swung around from the north to south and less cloud cover present, highs should warm back towards seasonal levels. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday night in advance of a cold front that will slowly work its way across the region. Primary change made with this forecast package was to spread out precipitation over a wider period, partially because of the surface front taking longer to cross the area and partially because a second upper level wave will give some reinforcing lift on Friday. While locations south and east of Pittsburgh are in a slight risk for the Thursday convective outlook, the uncertainty in the evolution of the system is also higher than normal. Likely pops were kept in the forecast, with the mention of categorical pops removed due to uncertainty in timing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers could linger into Friday night and even Saturday morning, but so far have not been too aggressive with keeping pops in the forecast longer. Once conditions dry out, high pressure over the Great Lakes could keep the rest of the forecast dry, although another front may cross the Great Lakes by the end of the forecast period. Temperatures will remain seasonable. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through much of the early TAF period with high pressure in place. Expect some MVFR fog to develop across the valleys and ports early Wednesday morning due to a radiative cooling night. Based on latest dew point temperatures and model soundings, not confident to include IFR fog in TAFs as this time as some models are indicating. Conditions should improve after sunrise where any fog does develop, with VFR prevailing thereafter under subsidence. .OUTLOOK... Restriction chances return Thursday as low pressure impacts the Ohio Valley. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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