Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241106 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 706 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE... PREVIOUS... DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AS CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM AND NOW SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WHILE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE WET. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STAGNANT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY MAKE A LACK OF EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH CONTINUOUS RAIN FOR FOUR DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR AND LGT SFC TDA. SHWR AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL INCRS ON FRIDAY WITH THE APCH OF A CDFNT. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY TO THE N OF I 70 AS COOL NW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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