Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 302324 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 724 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonably warm weather can then be expected into mid week. Another disturbance will increase rain chances Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to speed up exodus of shower chances across our southeast this evening. Previous discussion below... Although the front will usher in slightly lower dew points, the change in airmass is not decisive and overnight temperatures are projected about 5 above the averages using consensus-short guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Subsidence with that high is expected to maintain dry weather into Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again. Thereafter, general model agreement is of a mid level trough and associated cold front approaching Wednesday night and over the region Thursday. Have generally persisted with precipitation probabilities, which were gradually escalated on Wednesday night and into Thursday despite some guidance indicating more rapid onset. Above average temperatures are anticipated given the warm, moist advection in advance of that feature, forecast for which was constructed via tweaked superblend guidance. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and temperatures at or below superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Building high pressure will ensure general VFR through the period. The exception will come in the pre-dawn hours where patchy light fog is possible. With slightly lower dewpoints...confidence in placement and extent of fog is rather low...so general MVFR BR has been carried for all locations. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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