Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190818 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 318 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty winds today in the wake of a cold front. Scattered precipitation will changeover to snow by morning and persist through the day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Cold front that passed overnight is now east of the ridges with continued gusty winds and temperatures rapidly dropping in it`s wake. The wind advisory remains in effect for the ridges where potential for gusts in of 45-55mph remains. Changeover to a rain/snow mix and snow is expected by morning as strong cold air advection continues. The warm and saturated ground will limit accumulation at first, with rather low snow ratios but this should improve as the core of the coldest air approaches later Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northwesterly flow will continue scattered snow showers and keep temperatures in the 30s through the day. Highest PoPs remain the snow belt north of I-80 and in the mountains of PA/WV/MD where lake enhancement/upslope is anticipated. Still thinking 2-4 is reasonable, though some higher amounts may be possible. Best window for accumulating snow in the terrain looks to be as the second shortwave dives through the trough tomorrow afternoon, deepening the saturation layer through the snow growth zone, but this only lasts for a short period of time. With this in mind, have opted not to issue a winter weather advisory at this time though consideration will be given on future shifts. Building ridge of high pressure and backing flow should end chances for showers by Monday morning, with dry conditions expected through Tuesday. Some warming is expected under an upper ridge, which should get us closer to seasonal values by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Minimal change was needed in the extended. The majority of the week will be dry with seasonal temperatures outside of a weak wave progged to pass to the north midweek. Have kept slight chances in for locations north of I80 on Wednesday. Next system is progged for late in the period, with broad troughing in place. Model guidance differs, so opted to stay near a blend of guidance. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Gusty WNW wind and MVFR/local IFR conditions are expected through most of the day with broad upper troughing behind an exiting strong cold front. Rain showers should taper off by sunrise, though scattered snow showers are expected mainly N and E of PIT with cold NW flow and lake/terrain enhancement. A shortwave rotating through the main trough should increase the coverage of snow showers/flurries. Ports N of I 80 have the best chance at seeing brief IFR vsby restrictions. .Outlook... Cig restrictions should continue Sun night in cold NW flow. Restriction potential returns with a Tue cold front and subsequent upper troughing through mid week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ074-076. WV...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ510>514. && $$

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