Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230517 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 117 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A quick moving low pressure will bring rain showers mostly north of Pennsylvania and Ohio turnpikes Sunday night. Dry weather returns through mid week, however daytime highs will be in the 50s...which is below normal for this time of year.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Aside from nominal adjustments to reflect current observations, forecast appears to be in good shape. No significant changes needed with this update. Previous discussion follows... Remaining lake-enhanced streamers will diminish during the next few hours as flow backs to wly amid building high pressure. This high pressure will be fleeting as a clipper system moves sewd toward the Great Lakes region. Warm advection in advance of this system will support only modest decreases in temperature overnight, thus suppressing concern for frost outside of the highest ridges, where the growing season already ended earlier this month. Overnight minima thus can be expected in the upper 30s in the northern zones and lower 40s elsewhere. Lower 30s will be common in the ridges, where cold air has lingered all day. Amid increasing warm air advection and decent insolation, temps on Sunday should reach low 60s by afternoon. Cloud cover will begin to thicken late in the day as the clipper system approaches, but precipitation is not likely to encroach on the forecast area until Sun evening, when somewhat-deeper moisture begins to advect into the region. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... While quality moisture will be shallow Sunday afternoon, moisture advection and modest isentropic upglide should yield sufficiently- deep moisture to produce light precipitation in at least nrn sections of the forecast area and the ridges. MOS guidance and deterministic models suggest the likelihood of light but measurable precipitation in these areas, so a broader range in PoP was included for the Sun night timeframe. Previous discussion follows... A weak shortwave and a fast moving cold front will cross the region later Sunday night into early Monday, followed by dry high pressure for Tuesday. Chance POPs with frontal passage as moisture will be limited. Temperatures behind the front will be around 5 degrees below the seasonal average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next significant weather will be with a fairly-strong shortwave and surface low pressure moving across the Great Lakes later Wednesday night into Thursday. Likely POPs were included for this system until it shifts east to New England later Thursday night. Another cold front will approach by Saturday, bringing shower chances back to the forecast. Temperatures will be near or just below the seasonal averages through the period. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High confidence forecast. Area of altocu will advect over the region through the morning hours before vacating. High clouds then take over until moisture increases ahead of the next low pressure system. Clouds will be MVFR after 03Z Monday at FKL and DUJ with VCSH. Visibilities also shall fall into the MVFR category if the aforementioned airports experience a shower. There is still question how scattered showers will be at other terminals. It does not appear MGW or ZZV will see any restrictions due to weather. Winds shall stay around 7-11kts from the SW then veer to the W around daybreak. Gusts up to 20 kts are possible during the 16-20Z time period. Low level wind shear continues to be highlighted by several high resolution models after 0Z Monday. If the trend continues this will need to be inserted into the forecast. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday Night / Monday...MVFR possible with showers. LLWS also possible Tuesday - Wednesday...VFR Thursday...MVFR with rain showers likely
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ synopsis...98 aviation...98 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.