Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221352 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 952 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm and humid through the weekend with showers and storms expected both days. A few storms could be severe and produce heavy downpours.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Weakening MCS will continue to cross the region this morning. Rather unimpressive lapse rates, and low level inversion/capping has limited the wind potential with this system, with local surface observations estimating about half of the estimated wind from radar translating to the ground. Additional storms are quickly following behind the aforementioned MCS, which will slow our warming and destabilization today. Thus, while 30-35kts of shear is present, instability may be lacking for organized convection. Will still need to monitor conditions today but could see the storm prediction center`s slight risk cut back even further. All of this being said, high precipitable water and warm cloud depths near 13kft will support heavy rain and a potential flood threat where storms train over an area. Will not issue a watch at this time as flash flood guidance has recovered for much of the region with several days of dry weather.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... The risk for showers and storms will continue overnight, with the focus shifting southward as the surface boundary is pushed toward West Virginia. Another shortwave, moving southeastward in the northwest flow aloft, will work to move the boundary into the Mid-Atlantic region by dawn on Sunday. Sunday confidence is lower in organized convection moving through the region however we still remain in northwest flow with disturbances riding through. Activity wanes Sunday night with the loss of daytime heating, but again expect a muggy night with temps well into the 60s and lower 70s. Mid level trough sweeps through Monday afternoon so this will be the last round of showers/storms before a welcome break occurs. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Upper level ridge will shift eastward over the region on Tuesday, with rising heights leading to a gradual warming through Thursday. Deepening upper low over Hudson Bay will swing a boundary over the Great Lakes late week, returning better chances for showers/storms in northwest flow to end the week. Temperatures will generally be within 5 degrees of seasonal averages through the period, with lesser humidity Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Restrictions will continue this morning as showers and thunderstorms cross the region. There is a chance of thunderstorms to develop later in the afternoon but will largely hinge on instability. At this time development looks less likely in the absence of a trigger and cloud coverage limiting surface- based instability. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected on Sunday in morning fog and daily rounds of thunderstorms.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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