Area Forecast Discussion
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571 FXUS61 KPBZ 291346 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 946 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN PA BY MIDDAY...BLOSSOMING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN PA. HUNG ON TO CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY FOR A PORTION OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE REST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT MODELS ARE SPEEDING UP THEIR ONSET. TEMPERATURE INCREASES SATURDAY...AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN...DIFFERENCES IN OPERATIONAL MODEL DATA WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL RELY ON THE SUPERBLEND HERE TO ATTEMPT TO OVERCOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. A DRY PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/DEPTH OF A DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY ON...AS A WESTERN RIDGE ELICITS A RESPONSE DOWNSTREAM. CHANCE POPS APPEAR WISE FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. USED SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM AS WELL. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HELPS LIFT CIGS TO MVFR. TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AGAIN...BUT CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AIRFIELD MINIMUMS FOR THE MOST PART. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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