Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
589 FXUS61 KPBZ 071126 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 626 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION ON MONDAY. THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE DAY FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM PIT ON WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR DURING THAT PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS...WILL LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. CL .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.