Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 080542
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1242 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016
A trough of low pressure will result in a return to cold
temperatures and periodic snow showers through the end of the
week. More widespread precipitation is likely Sunday with
crossing low pressure.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Minimal change to going forecast for the rest of the night...as
mainly mid and upper clouds accompany a mid level shortwave as it
approaches. No precipitation expected through sunrise as lower
levels remain quite dry. Minor changes made to low temperatures.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper troughing extending from the Canadian upper low, and cold
advection, should persist across the Eastern CONUS through
Friday. The boundary layer flow is progged to remain WSW Thursday,
keeping any lake enhanced snow showers mainly north of the
A weak surface trough is expected to cross the area Thursday
night and Friday morning, resulting in veering boundary layer
winds to the WNW, a brief increase in moisture, heightening of
the inversion levels, and re enforcing cold advection. This
should result in the best potential for snow showers across much
of the area. Some lake enhancement is expected especially for
areas north of I 80, where the best potential exists to see a few
inches of snow. Will maintain the HWO mention for this potential
where an advisory may eventually be needed. While snow showers
are likely in the ridges, the flow is not optimal for significant
Building high pressure and backing winds should bring an end to
the snow showers Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures should
average around 10 degrees below seasonal levels.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A midwestern trough and associated surface low is progged for
approach and passage Sunday and Sunday night, with a period of
snow likely. Persistent upper troughing across the Northeast CONUS
should maintain periodic snow shower chances and colder than
average temperatures for the rest of the long term period.
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the night with just mid and
high clouds. Lower clouds will encroach from the northwest
tomorrow as a cold front crosses. Kept ceilings VFR for now but
will reevaluate for possible MVFR ceilings tomorrow afternoon and
evening. West winds will be around 10 knots or less through mid-
morning, before increasing and gusting to 20 to 25 knots during
the afternoon and evening behind the cold front.
Scattered restrictions in snow showers are expected into Saturday.
The next chance for widespread IFR will be with snow Sunday.