Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300139 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 939 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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PREFRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FROM MOVING INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. IT NOW CONSISTS OF MAINLY A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HUG THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT EXPECT THESE TO FALL APART/MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL BACK NEAR TOLEDO AND EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE NEAR PIT AROUND 12Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OCCASIONALLY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...AND REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES TO SLIGHT. ANY SHOWERS COULD YET PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...GIVEN 10K+ WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY JUST TWEAKED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY... THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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