Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 060853 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 353 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND DRIVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS TODAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LACKING...SO ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. RIDGING BETWEEN UPR MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT A DRY SUNDAY WITH FURTHER...ALBEIT MINOR... MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...HENCE AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR THE UPPER OHIO ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...IF NOT A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID IN THE HEART OF THE WARMER AIR. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BEFORE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS POINT...TIMING OF ALL OF THIS AND THE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT...SO A MODEL BLEND WILL BE PRUDENT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM MONDAY WHICH WILL MAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DIFFICULT IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE MORE SNOW THEN RAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. NEVERTHELESS...UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVR THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. SUB-AVG TEMPS AND PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES MAY BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD...WITH FOCUS TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES AS THE WORK WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE. THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD. STRATOCU DECK AT AROUND 5-6 THOUSAND FEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL LIFT FURTHER DURING THE DAY...WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...WITH SOME GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CL .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND COULD PERSIST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE REGIONAL WEATHER. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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