Area Forecast Discussion
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370 FXUS61 KPBZ 301842 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 242 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the ridges early this evening. Dry and seasonably warm weather can then be expected into mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weak frontal boundary will complete a slide across the Upper Ohio Region this evening with isolated, to scattered shower and thunderstorms coverage over areas east and south of Pittsburgh. Improved flow should inhibit any localized heavy rainfall issues. Although the front will usher in slightly lower dew points, the change in airmass is not decisive and overnight temperatures are projected about 5 above the averages using consensus-short guidance. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Subsidence with that high is expected to maintain dry weather into Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again. Thereafter, general model agreement is of a mid level trough and associated cold front approaching Wednesday night and over the region Thursday. Have generally persisted with precipitation probabilities, which were gradually escalated on Wednesday night and into Thursday despite some guidance indicating more rapid onset. Above average temperatures are anticipated given the warm, moist advection in advance of that feature, forecast for which was constructed via tweaked superblend guidance. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and temperatures at or below superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Building high pressure will ensure general VFR through the period with exceptions for isolated eve convection near LBE and MGW and peri-dawn fog. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && 15 $$

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