Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260334 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1034 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE SPREADING SNOW OVER THE AREA. AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES EAST MONDAY...WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED NEAR MID-WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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KEPT LARGER COMPONENTS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF INTO OUR REGION. SPATIAL COVERAGE AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO GROW AS THE MID-LEVEL FRONT INTENSIFIES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. BEGINNING TO SEE REPORTS AROUND 2"...ON PACE WITH CURRENT AN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MOST ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT CAME NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE STUBBORN WARM AIR HAS KEPT...AND CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT BAY. KMGW STILL REPORTING 35 DEGREES AND REPORTS FROM THE AREA HAVE BEEN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. TRIMMED POPS DOWN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WV AND HELD THE WARMER AIR IN LONGER. ULTIMATELY SNOW FORECAST TOTALS HAD TO BE TRIMMED BACK...BUT WITH COLDER AIR SLOWLY FILLING IN AND THE SNOW EXPECTED TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW EARLY MON MORNING...KEPT 2-4" IN THE FORECAST AND THE ADVISORIES REMAIN. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE ONLY DRY 24 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IFR/LIFR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SAVE STRANGELY ENOUGH FOR FKL/DUJ. THESE SITES WILL SINK TO IFR OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR VSBY EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SHORT PERIODS OF VLIFR AS WELL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z MONDAY BUT START TO EASE A BIT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOME SITES MAY ACHIEVE LOW-END MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004- 012-021>023-041. && $$

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