Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 172155 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 555 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain is likely with a cold front tonight into Friday. Temperatures will stay warm through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Pre-frontal convection is currently ongoing under decently sheared southerly flow that gradually veers with height ahead of the front. In this environment and with dewpoints well up into the 70s across much of the area, some mildly rotating convection has developed, though a lack of dry air in the column is helping to actually decrease total instability. However, with copious moisture ahead of the front, scattered convection that may briefly become organized will move from SW to NE over the next few hours. The cold front currently extends from near Cincinnati toward Cleveland at this hour. More organized convection is evident along the boundary, however a lack of dry air aloft and deep warm cloud depth are limiting the wind and hail potential at this time. This will still be the best chance of organized stronger winds, through the evening as is slowly trudges eastward across the area. A secondary wave along the front to the SW just east of the juncture of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers will track northeastward overnight. This will work to slow the frontal progression and keep the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms over much of the area, even after the currently frontal squall line passes. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The bulk of the rainfall will have moved east by sunrise on Friday, although scattered showers could linger into Friday afternoon east of Pittsburgh. The chance for thunderstorms should also drop significantly by sunrise as well. Overnight lows shouldn`t drop much below 70, while temperatures will climb into the 80s once again on Friday. Cooler air will finally arrive Friday night with the frontal passage having not occurred until Friday afternoon. Between cooler air crossing Lake Erie and a surface boundary, scattered showers remain in the forecast on Saturday. Computer models are showing additional coverage in showers compared to model runs from yesterday. As high pressure moves over the area by Sunday, conditions will dry out. Temperatures will remain seasonable.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad high pressure will keep conditions dry Monday into Tuesday before another cold front brings a chance of rain back to the forecast for late Tuesday into Wednesday. Monday should have the warmest temperatures of the week, with temperatures dropping back towards normal by Thursday. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm front moving through the forecast area this afternoon is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. These will continue to blossom through the evening, becoming more numerous and strengthening. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are then possible through early Friday, when a cold front finally pushes through. Temporary restrictions and gusty winds will be possible in any thunderstorm activity. After the passage of the front, some MVFR or high IFR stratus is possible centered around dawn Friday. Any stratus that does develop will gradually improve through the day. Light southerly flow will shift to west-southwesterly with occasional gusts Friday. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible with another passing disturbance Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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