Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271750 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 150 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS. CL && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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