Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 012345 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 745 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING UNTIL A MID-WEEK SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE HEADING BACK ABOVE NORMAL MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 WILL HAVE TO WAIT A LITTLE BIT BEFORE RAIN MOVES THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY STABLE THERE AND ALL THE INFLOW IS BEING CUT OFF BY DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH. SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP. THIS CONCURS WITH LOCAL RESEARCH USING CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES. WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APLENTY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE / I-76 SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL CARRY INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... INSTABILITY DOES WANE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER WAVE IS SET TO TRACK DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALLOWING IT TO SURGE A BIT NORTHWARD. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALONG WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...MEANING A GOOD SWATH OF SHOWERS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA. POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SLOWED A BIT PER THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE. DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY WARM FOR EARLY MAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SHOULD RACE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. WHILE RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT GAP IN RAIN WILL BE SHORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DROP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER TO THE WEST...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THIS WILL YIELD INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. WEATHER WILL REMAIN COOL...CLOUDY...AND WET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE LOW DRIFTS EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF I-70. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY A STORM WOULD BE MGW BEFORE 2Z...OTHERWISE THE REST ARE IN THE CLEAR FOR THE TIME BEING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH NE OHIO AND NW PA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH FOR PREVAILING SHOWERS AT LBE- PIT- ZZV AS IT IS FOR FKL AND DUJ...SO OPTED FOR VCSH. CIGS WILL BE TEETERING ON IFR/MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO IFR AT FKL AND DUJ THEN 1KFT CIGS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS BETWEEN 8Z- 15Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHORT WINDOW OF SUB THOUSAND FOOT CLOUDS AT ANY AIRPORT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL GO WEST THEN NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP LOW END VFR CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS IS LIKELY WITH A WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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