Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 302321 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 721 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER SMALL AND INSTABILITY PROFILES FAIRLY SKINNY ON SKEW-T CHARTS...HOWEVER VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DUE TO AN IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE MADE FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTS. A FEW OF THESE CELLS DID MANAGE TO ATTAIN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE LARGER HAIL...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THE WINDOW FOR LARGER HAIL HAS LIKELY ALREADY CLOSED. SOME NOMINAL CLEARING IS LIKELY BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENING. FRIES ANOTHER QUICK MOVING AND WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH. CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BY FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SPREADING WEST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY BUT MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL. NEXT FRONT MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWER STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...AS LATEST MODELS SHOWING WEAK CAA OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A VFR FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH A SCT- BKN COVERAGE. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG AT ZZV AND MGW AS THEY SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH MVFR TEMPO LIFR AT ZZV. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR FOG...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO FKL AND DUJ. WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE PORTS FOR THIS THREAT. COOL POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ANY STRATOCU TO DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 15KTS OUT OF THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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