Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271820 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 220 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO UPDATES NEEDED AS THE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW.. A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY CAPS A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIP PROBS IN THE WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ADJUSTED OVER THE RIDGE AREAS AND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70...WHERE WEAK OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT...AN EVE RIDGE BREEZE...AND EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE DESTABILIZED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DEPENDING ON LOCATION. THE NEAR 90 TEMPS AND MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS WILL DRIVE HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH RELIEF COMING ON WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA. SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT NORTHWARD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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