Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290927 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 527 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No major changes for the near dawn update. Previous discussion-A shortwave is progged to cross the upper Ohio valley region today. Instability is expected to increase with daytime heating, and scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as convective temperatures are reached. Expecting more coverage of precip today than in recent days with the shortwave support. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms should decrease tonight as the shortwave exits. Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels using a blend of GFS gridded MOS and consensus guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models in good overall agreement on a cold front approaching the region by thursday afternoon and attempting to push east by friday. A shortwave ahead of a trough axis moving across the great lakes may slow progression of front friday until trough passes so chance pops continued. No significant changes for saturday with chance pops mainly for the ridges with lingering low level moisture. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend toward the seasonal average late week. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Patchy mvfr fog into the early morning hours otherwise VFR conditions through the taf period. While better coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is expected, still low probability at any one port, and vcts continued from kpit south and east. Winds will be light southwest. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front will approach the region late Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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