Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 070538
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1238 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016
A Thursday cold front will return snow shower chances and much
colder temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Extended period of drizzle mainly east of Pittsburgh for a few
hours, but no major changes to the overnight forecast otherwise.
Some patchy freezing drizzle is still possible leading up to
sunrise, especially in the higher elevations. Clouds may begin to
break a bit in southeast Ohio towards 12Z. Temperatures updated
with a hi-res guidance blend.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering low level moisture over the eastern zones may cause
light precipitation early Wednesday. Otherwise, dry weather is
forecast for as surface high pressure builds across the region
The next cold front is still expected to cross on
Thursday, bringing the coldest air of the season so far. Have
increased PoPs for snow showers behind the front in the
developing mid-level trough. Latest guidance shows favorable lake
enhancement snow to develop mostly over the the north for a short
period of time. After the initial onslaught of the cold front and
blustery snow showers late Thursday, inversion heights will
gradually lower and decrease the snow accumulation rate by late
Friday. Nonetheless, stagnant low level moisture and lowering
dendritic growth zone is expected to keep snow chances lasting
through the start of the weekend, especially over the higher
Temperatures will lower to below normal values by the end of the
period and wind chill values are expected to decrease to near
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold-supporting upper trough over the Eastern CONUS is
progged to fill rapidly early next week as another low develops
toward the Great Lakes. Flow over the Upper Ohio will thus
deamplify and temperature moderate back toward the seasonal
Best precip chances look to be on Sunday night and into Monday as
that Great Lakes low drags a front across the region. With the
low-center forecast well north of the region, precip timing will
depend on eventual frontal progress. Superblend guidance was
used for long term forecast construction.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings will slowly improve overnight, as
moisture trapped in the low levels starts to be eroded as winds
shift to the west, with some gusts. Past sunrise, ceilings will
improve through MVFR to VFR with time as high pressure builds in
from the southwest. Mainly just mid/high clouds are expected to be
in place by the end of the TAF period.
Periodic restrictions are likely for the rest of the week as a
strong cold front sweeps the region.