Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290137 AAB AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AREA OF SHOWERS REFUSING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY. THIS AREA IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ROLLING OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LONGER FOR THE RAIN TO END. WITH SUCH SLOW MOVEMENT AND PULSES OF MORE INTENSE RAIN...ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY HAVE LIKELY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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