Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291841 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 241 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...INHIBITING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE USING THE LATEST SREF NUMBERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECLUDING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE PA/WV BORDER LATER SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG IT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A DECREASE TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF DATA.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT A PERIOD OF VCTS AS PROBABILITY OF STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR PORT IS SMALL. NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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