Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151830 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 230 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Shower areas today will give way to a dry and warm Wednesday. Rain is likely with a Thursday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Visible satellite showing diurnal altocu blossoming as we reach peak heating. These will largely remain capped, with dry weather forecast for much of the area. Isolated showers/thunderstorms could begin to sneak into our western/northern zones this afternoon and evening in response to a shortwave evident on latest water vapor imagery. Expecting clouds and remaining rain chances to dwindle late this evening with the setting sun. With a relatively clear and calm night expected, we could see some valley fog develop overnight. This, of course will be dependent on whether any high clouds are present and how far the temperatures can dip. At this point, no high clouds are evident upstream, and lows are forecast to approach forecast dewpoints (low to mid 60s). && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... After the passage of today`s wave, heights will briefly build Wednesday, allowing a dry forecast to carry through much of Wednesday. Increasing southwesterly flow late Wednesday night into early Thursday will lift a warm front into the area. Will keep the area dry through the pre-dawn Thursday, but do bring some chance PoPs in for near the Thursday morning rush hour. The warm front will lift north of the area Thursday afternoon, with mostly scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector. The deep parent low lifting north through the Great Lakes will finally swing a cold front into our western zones late Thursday night into Friday morning. While timing differences do exist, it looks as though the broad consensus across model guidance is for high PoPs near or after 00z Friday with the front. If this timing holds, it is not very favorable for strong convection along the front to make it deep into our forecast area. For this reason, the Day 3 marginal risk outlines just our Ohio counties, which seems prudent. Temperatures through the period will remain near average. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Any lingering rain showers will taper down by Saturday as high pressure briefly builds in. A secondary wave Saturday night could bring additional rain chances, but timing will be unfavorable for much else. Broad high pressure will then build into the region for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will remain near average, building into the middle of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered to broken cumulus clouds will persist through the afternoon, with light winds overall. A few showers and storms remain possible around and north of I-80, and handled with VCTS at FKL. Skies will be mainly clear overnight with calm wind after daytime heating is lost. Expecting a round of at least valley-based fog overnight, with IFR at several terminals. Still some questions as to amount of high cloud cover as well as whether crossover temperatures will be generally breached, so elected to keep things valley-based and capped visibility drop to 1 mile for now. However, LIFR certainly is possible at a few sites. Fog will lift by late morning, with VFR conditions returning, along with continued light wind. .Outlook... Localized morning fog will again be possible Wednesday morning. Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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