Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291242 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 842 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SUNNY AND DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CRISP AND CLEAR MORNING AREAWIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY...THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND EVEN NEAR RECORD IN SOME CASES...THE WARMER SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO TO GET BACK INTO THE REALM OF AVERAGE. SO DESPITE THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WHICH FOR THE AREA ARE IN THE 50S. TONIGHT...A RELATIVELY DRY AND WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OUR WEST. AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS ENTERS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT JUST INTO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR COUNTIES ELEVATED. TIMING ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...BUT THE LATEST RUNS PUSH TIMING BACK AN HOUR OR TWO AS IT FIGHTS THE DRY AIR FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...BUT AREAS NEAR PITTSBURGH AND NORTH WILL COOL ENOUGH TO TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. MODEL SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-80 INDICATE THIS AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ALL SNOW. REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING AND OVERUNNING OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD BE LOW. LITTLE...IF ANY...SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...SNOW WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHERN ZONES WITH AS THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WHILE 00Z GFS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SOME FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...00Z ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...WITH DECENT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...WILL STICK WITH GFS TIMING AND BRING IN LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY UNTIL IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL EASILY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S. TEMPS WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES EACH DAY...LEADING BACK TO YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT REACH MGW UNTIL AFTER THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS WITH PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY BEGIN AS VFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR. SOME MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF PITTSBURGH...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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