Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 222235 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016
Hot and humid weather is forecast for into early next week along
with intervals of scattered thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
635 PM update...earlier lake breeze fired some convection in the
I-80 corridor, however, as temperatures aloft continue to warm,
the activity has found it very hard to sustain itself as the
atmosphere becomes capped. Have just left in the mention of an
isolated shower over the north for a portion of the evening and
updated overnight temps. As the sun sets expect clouds to
dissipate. If model depictions of overnight temps is correct,
appears it will remain too warm for much fog to develop.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
We will remain in northwest flow situated between the broad
ridge/trough pattern across the central and eastern CONUS. Yet
another shortwave digging through the base of the trough over NY
and New England will push a front across the region on Saturday.
This may be enough to initialize some isolated thunderstorms in
the afternoon, especially where low levels remain moist - which
appears to be along the I-70 corridor. More notable will be the
temperatures tomorrow, which should surpass 90. With dewpoints
staying in the low 70`s over Ohio, heat indices will approach
100. Thus, a heat advisory has been issued for several of counties
in Ohio. With the back-door front approaching further north,
dewpoints may fall off allowing for temperatures to approach 90
but allowing heat indices to stay below criteria. Will allow
future shifts to assess the potential.
Surface high pressure should keep things quiet on Sunday until the
approach of a trough and associated front late Sunday night/
Monday morning. Very warm temperatures and humid conditions will
continue until this front approaches. Some timing differences
preclude adding likely pops in the forecast for monday at this
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally zonal flow is progged through the long term period. Weak
disturbances embedded in the flow should bring periodic shower and
thunderstorm chances to the region, especially for the second half
of the week. Temperatures are expected to remain several degrees
above the seasonal averages.
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the evening with the best
upper support and instability for thunderstorms shifting south of
the area, though an isolated storm is still possible though
sunset. MVFR fog is expected late tonight with increasing dew
points. This should quickly mix out after sunrise Saturday with
VFR conditions thereafter, though an isolated storm is possible
south of PIT with a lingering surface boundary.
.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible late Sunday and Monday with the
approach and passage of a weak cold front.
OH...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday FOR OHZ048-
WV...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday FOR WVZ004-012.