Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
563 FXUS61 KPBZ 211514 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1114 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will taper to showers later today as low pressure and a cold front slowly move east of the area. Much cooler weather is expected through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Rain continues on the western side of departing surface low pressure. Additional rain/showers are expected as an upper trough slowly advances across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Expect near steady or slowly falling temperatures through the day in cold advection. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The trough axis will pass to the east of the area late this evening, and the colder air will continue to advect in. Will need to keep in the chance for precipitation overnight with the cold air advection and a saturated low level. However, as inversion heights lower, expect any showers to become more spotty and light. Wind gusts should increase tonight and Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens, with the highest speeds reaching 40-45 mph in the ridges. Cold advection in northwest flow, will keep in shower chances Saturday, but this too will drift eastward as the large upper level low swings northeastward toward New England. Latest hires nam run is actually showing a lake enhanced band developing Saturday morning, which will drift eastward throughout the day. This looks reasonable considering the cold air aloft and the lack of directional shear between the winds in the mid and lower levels. Will shift PoPs eastward in correlation with the timing of the possible band. Locations in the ridge counties, especially on the peaks, could see a few snow showers mix in Saturday morning. Building high pressure will bring and end to any lingering showers over the northeast Saturday evening. Dry Sunday, with a decrease in cloud cover as warm air advection gets underway. Temperatures will recover on Sunday to near seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A fast moving shortwave is progged for an early week passage, with most of the shower chances remaining north of PIT. Ridging is progged thereafter through mid week before another trough advances out of the Midwest by late week. Temperatures should average a few degrees below seasonal levels through the period. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IFR and low end MVFR can be expected through the day as a deep trough swings across the region. Some slow improvement in flight conditions will begin by evening, although only ZZV is expected to achieve VFR by the end of the TAF period. Expect north, to northwest wind with gusts of 20 to 25 kt until night falls. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Periodic restrictions can be expected until high pressure grips the region later on Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.