Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010137 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 937 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHWRS WL CONT TO GRDLY DMNSH FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE ATM STABILIZES...ALTHOUGH A WK SHRTWV WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER OVRNGT WITH ADDNL SCT SHWRS EXPD. MDL PROGS INDICATE MORE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG OVRNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8 INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500 WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IN ST AND BR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG IS EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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