Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191344 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 844 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through Saturday. Rain chances return with the new week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast is on track and no changes are needed at this time. Previous... Surface high pressure sliding across southern portions of the Mid Atlantic Region under zonal flow aloft will support dry weather, warm advection, and thus moderating temperature through Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Intensifying warm advection under building upper high pressure in advance of a Cntrl Rockies-to-Plains low will drive Upper Ohio temperature well above the averages for the start of the new week. Rain chances will be limited to light precip with the low level warm frontal moisture surge on Sunday and Monday. The continued advance of that low toward, and across the Great Lakes on Monday and early Tuesday will provide the next likely chance for measurable rain as that system pulls a cold front across the region, although widespread problems are not anticipated given low pressure track, rapid progression, and projections of a narrow moisture plume. Flood issues should remain local given melting snow, rotting ice and jams. That cold front will also interrupt the January flaw by heralding more seasonal temperature for mid week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Late week weather is expected to feature another temperature moderation and generally dry weather as another trough digs over the Wrn U.S., with warm advection for points east. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR will prevail as high pressure slides across the Mid Atlantic Region and generates SSW wind, with gusts around 20kt this afternoon as shallow mixing resumes. .OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with the new week and an approaching frontal system. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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