Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 252354 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 654 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE SPREADING SNOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES EAST MONDAY...WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED NEAR MID-WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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7PM UPDATE... PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE SNOW EVENT IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE PLAGUED MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...EATING INTO THE INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW AND IN SOME LOCATIONS EVEN KEEPING RAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR DEWPOINTS AND NO OUTSIDE COLD AIR PUSH...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH NORMAL DIURNAL COOLING. ULTIMATELY IT AMOUNTS TO LESS SNOW IN THE FORECAST TOTAL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL BE RE-WORKING NEW TOTALS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE...BUT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER WERE MADE THROUGH PRE-DAWN MONDAY TO REFLECT THE WARMER REALITY. TAX PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL LOW CENTER JUST OVER WESTERN KY NOW SHIFTING EAST AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAX SITS RIGHT OVER OR EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THINGS WELL SO FAR TODAY AND OPTED TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF MORE INTENSE SNOW THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RUNS. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS LATEST RUNS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND CONSEQUENTLY THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY NOT BE UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4-6 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH TO INTERSTATE 80 WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BEST DYNAMICS. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AREA EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WAS LEFT UNCHANGED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.;
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE ONLY DRY 24 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IFR/LIFR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SAVE STRANGELY ENOUGH FOR FKL/DUJ. THESE SITES WILL SINK TO IFR OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR VSBY EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SHORT PERIODS OF VLIFR AS WELL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z MONDAY BUT START TO EASE A BIT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOME SITES MAY ACHIEVE LOW-END MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004- 012-021>023-041. && $$

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