Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281046 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 646 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR RISE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT FORESEEN. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL NOT BE EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING. TAX OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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