Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 022201 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 601 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS WITH ENSEMBLE/RADAR DATA. CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING AS OVERALL INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FIGURE TO STAY THAT WAY...BUT STILL DO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP RAINFALL RATES IN CHECK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. CL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY... THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR PORTS S OF PIT. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021- 509>514. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.