


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --545 FXUS61 KPBZ 290537 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 137 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet and dry weather will finally settle in today, but another active period is forecast for Monday into Tuesday. Patchy dense fog is possible early this morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet weather ensues as lingering showers exit. - Dense fog potential increases early this morning. - Mostly dry conditions Sunday. --------------------------------------------------------------- Lingering showers are exiting the area as the front continues to sag southwards and instability wanes. Remaining showers should clear the WV ridges within the next few hours. However, abundant residual moisture, light wind, and some clearing of cloud cover will present optimal conditions for early morning fog. Patchy dense fog will be possible, and we will be monitoring the need for a Dense Fog Advisory or Special Wx Statement. Fog is expected to linger across the area through at least 8 AM. The cold front will stall just south of the Mason-Dixon line today, keeping most showers and storms south of the forecast area. The exception may be a few showers/storms across the WV ridges this afternoon. Temperatures will remain above-normal under increasingly zonal 500mb flow. Most of the region will top out in the mid/upper 80s. Tonight, little change is expected with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Patchy fog will again be possible as low-level moisture lingers, though increasing cloud cover should keep this from being widespread. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Storm and heavy rainfall chances return Monday and Tuesday. - Temperatures remain above-average, but below heat advisory criteria. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The front will begin to lift back northward late Sunday night into Monday, with showers likely returning to the area Monday morning. Elevated PWATs with southwesterly flow and plentiful instability will again mean flooding low-end severe threats are on the table. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Monday/Monday night. Rain will finally clear with another cold frontal passage Tuesday, leaving drier conditions for the remainder of the day. Northwesterly flow and meager cold advection will keep temperatures closer to seasonal norms Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - A drier and more seasonable air mass arrives by Wednesday and persists through at least Thursday. - ------------------------------------------------------------------- The break in our more active pattern continues Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures return to a more seasonable level under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Low probability rain chances may return Thursday afternoon and Friday as more wavy mid-level flow develops. Details and timing remain unclear at this point. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --With clearing underway and light winds with an abundant amount of remnant moisture near the surface, the potential of fog increases across the region, especially the northern counties as they will clear out first. Fog will be dense at times, reaching LIFR or even VLIFR levels through the early morning and through dawn. Surface heating will likely help improve vis conditions after 12Z, with VFR conditions returning with scattered cumulus. The boundary may stall near the Mason-Dixon Line through Sunday, keeping a few stray showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the area, with MGW having the best chance of seeing impact. For now, Put a PROB30 in for MGW as a thunderstorm can`t fully be ruled out. For the most part, expect light winds through the rest of the TAF period with mainly dry conditions. Cloud cover will be mainly cirrus passing through the area. A chance of fog will be possible again on Sunday night. Outlook... Showers/storms return again Monday as the boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Rain and restriction chances continue into Tuesday, before a cold frontal passage returns VFR conditions for Wednesday and Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rackley NEAR TERM...Rackley SHORT TERM...Rackley LONG TERM...Rackley AVIATION...CL/Shallenberger