Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220538 AAD AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 138 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front will sweep through tonight, bringing much colder temperatures today. Temperatures will quickly moderate into the weekend with rain chances returning on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Only minor changes to the overnight period. Slightly adjusted PoPs across the north and spread the cold air stratocu a bit further south. Temperatures have been updated with a blend of hires guidance. Strong cold advection today will result in temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal. Some of this chill will be offset by a full late March sun, as high pressure brings a very dry atmosphere to the region. Gusty north-northwest winds will continue throughout the day. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will maintain dry conditions through Thursday with moderating temperatures expected. As models begin to get a handle on the progression of a warm front Thursday night/Friday morning, and its associated precipitation, as well as the thermal profile ahead of the boundary, the risk for any wintry mix is beginning to subside. The tough part of the forecast is where models are beginning to pin point the best locations for measurable precipitation, late Thursday night, is where temperatures could be cold enough to cause some headaches. The other question will be since we are now in late March and temperatures are expected to warm on Thursday, overnight cooling will be key and this will be retarded by the rapid onset of mid clouds Thursday evening. Will keep in a mention of frozen precipitation across the far north and northeast, but this is done so with low confidence and based solely on model thermal profiles. Showers are expected on Friday, although how much coverage there will be is still in question. Strong warm air advection on Friday will allow for above normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A fairly-active, split-stream jet pattern is expected for the remainder of the forecast, with a series of closed lows expected in the swrn CONUS and a progressive northern stream. Moisture spreading ahead of these southern-stream lows will bring a wetter and cloudier (but warmer) period into early next week. Precipitation will be driven by the passage of these ejecting lows, the timing of which is not clear at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR stratocu cloud shield will cover most ports through the nighttime hours and until about mid-morning. After this time, a very dry atmosphere will win out and rapidly decay the clouds, returning all ports to VFR conditions. Gusty north-northwest winds will be the other feature of concern, as gusts of 20 to 30 kts are possible through the entire period. Winds will weaken after sunset. Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions should come on Friday with a front tracking across the lower Great Lakes. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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