Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260519 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1219 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 9 PM UPDATE...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS LATE TONIGHT AND UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE. REST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR THE MASON DIXON LINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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