Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KPBZ 230816
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
416 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
Showers are possible again today, as slow moving upper level low
leaves the East Coast. Dry weather will return on Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move
over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Models continue to
show shortwaves rotating around the low, which will necessitate
the inclusion of pops over the eastern half of the area. Highest
pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture
will be located. Atmosphere destabilization looks like a good bet
this afternoon, so have continued with the mention of thunder.
Expect to see a wide range of temperatures today, from the cool
and wet east to the dry and sunny west.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build in tonight, behind the exiting
upper low. Any showers over the east, will be ending and skies
With strengthening ridge and eastward moving surface high, area
finally will see a dry day Tuesday with warmer temperatures.
Next slow moving system will bring the risk for showers back into
the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to
develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for
the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support
increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend
approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves
embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which
is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights
and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through
the start of next weekend.
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The remaining rain areas should diminish as the morning, and
supporting shortwave energy progress. Areas of IFR, with fog and
stratus, are expected at where rainfall occurred. Building high
pressure will ensure the return of VFR after daybreak.
.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are possible by late week with an approaching trough.