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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONVECTION FROM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS GENERALLY
WORKED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT. OUTFLOW
ENHANCED ASCENT SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS ALONG A LINE OF
HEAVIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SEEMS TO MAINTAINING THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO BE SAGGING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE COLD POOL FROM THE HEART OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXPANDS WITH TIME.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL YIELD A SECONDARY INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN A LACK OF SURFACE INVOLVEMENT BY
THAT JUNCTURE...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DOES SLIDE THROUGH...POPS ARE
SECONDARILY INCREASED TOWARD LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS. FRIES
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$