Area Forecast Discussion
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551 FXUS61 KPBZ 302136 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 536 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather continues through tonight and into Wednesday. A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cooler pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Dry air has become well-entrained into the boundary layer through the afternoon hours today as evidenced by dewpoints falling into the 40s on a wide basis. This will preclude any fog from forming tonight ahead of eastward-advancing cirrus. Model RH profiles continue to indicate a pretty stark leading edge to cloud cover going into Wednesday morning. Sky grids were adjusted to reflect a more bimodal clear/overcast progression as a result. However, due to dry air, even with some lift advancing eastward as a system pushes through the Great Lakes, PoPs were maintained near zero through 12z. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main event will be the cold frontal passage late Wednesday and Wednesday night. The best support for lift will lie across the northern counties, closer to the crossing shortwave. Have increased PoPs to likely in this area while keeping lower values to the south. Moisture increases after 18Z, with precipitable water increasing back into the 1.75 to 2.0 inch range. Some model soundings take on a moist adiabatic look late Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Given the relatively low instability, this should keep severe probabilities quite low and in agreement with the SPC Day 2 outlook. However, we cannot rule out some at least briefly heavier rainfall rates, given the high moisture content and sufficient warm cloud depths. Still, flooding does not appear to be a threat at this time. Kept some low PoPs southeast of PIT early on Thursday as the front crosses the ridges. Surface high pressure builds in later Thursday with a trough in the mid levels. This brings in a drier and cooler air mass through Friday, with temperatures below climatology both Thursday and Friday afternoons. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended forecast will be very quiet through the holiday weekend. Ridging is progged across much of the eastern CONUS through Labor Day, with dry weather and gradually warming temperatures expected. Clouds may be on the increase on Tuesday, but precipitation should still remain west of the area. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Cloud cover will begin to increase by Wednesday morning, but precipitation should remain west of terminals through the 24 hour TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms were added to the extended portion of the PIT TAF. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Restrictions will be possible with a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but the remainder of the period should have VFR conditions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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