Area Forecast Discussion
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224 FXUS61 KPBZ 040557 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1257 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled pattern will continue through the week, with precipitation expected Sunday night, Tuesday, and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Weak high pressure will work into the region overnight, with only a few leftover flurries in dying northwest flow. As the surface high shifts east later today increasing mid and high level moisture will will keep skies cloudy, as complex northern and southern stream shortwaves approach. Weak warm advection will keep temperatures near the seasonal average Sunday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Flow on Sunday night with incoming cold front does not appear to be as split as it has over the last few days, and with system better organized, had increased pops to likely in all locations. Considering temperatures on Sunday will have been slightly warmer than the last several days, precipitation will start as rain in most places, with any snow accumulation less than an inch. A lingering shower may last into Monday, but the rest of the day should be dry. Forecast for Monday night into Tuesday is becoming a bit more complicated. The last few runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been relatively consistent with timing of precipitation moving into the region, so have thrown out the NAM/SREF as fast outliers. Precipitation should move in from southwest to northeast. Warm temperatures aloft will melt any precipitation, but there is still some uncertainty as to how cold surface temperatures will be as precipitation begins. Have added freezing rain to the forecast in many locations, although confidence still remains low in how the pattern will develop and thus no mention was added in the hazardous weather outlook. Tuesday may end up being the warmest day of the week with temperatures in most locations rising into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Precipitation will decrease Tuesday night as low pressure moves to the east, with the next widespread chance for precipitation arriving on Thursday with a potent cold front. Behind the front, the coldest air of the season will move in for Friday and Saturday. Snow showers will continue in cold advection behind the front. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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With our region remaining in northwest flow ahead of a building ridge, some low cigs in stratus and occasional snow showers remain, mainly north of PIT. Expect the IFR and low MVFR cigs to gradually improve at KFKL and KDUJ, with VFR expected to continue at all other terminals. Stratus will gradually be replaced by high clouds in advance of the next system progged to approach late Sunday. Will start to trend back down toward MVFR as suggested in all guidance with the approach of this weak front, with lower restrictions possible by the end of the TAF period. Wind will remain light out of the w-nw, gradually shifting to southeasterly ahead of the boundary. .OUTLOOK... Lingering restrictions possible early Monday followed by VFR until the next system approaches late Tuesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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