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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EVIDENT ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
IN WILL TRACK JUST NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
VORT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER IN/OH BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE ON THE RISE AS THE
DRY AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ERODES
AWAY. PUSHED UP THE SURGE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND SPED UP THE ONSET OF POPS OVER WRN FLANKS WITH
THIS UPDATE. BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OF UNTIL TUES MORNING
HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM ITS CURRENT
MIDWEST LOCATION. OVERALL...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ULTIMATELY TOTALING A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

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