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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 072340
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
640 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH A WEAK SATURDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WITH 515PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA FOR NOW...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

DRY WEA WITH WEAK WARM ADVCTN WL CONT THROUGH TNGT AS FLAT UPR
RIDGE BLDS OVR THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF E COAST LOW AND
NRN PLNS TO GREAT LAKES TROFG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG OVR THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS PROGGED DYNAMIC
SPPRT IS LACKING...POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY WERE MAINTAINED WITH
THE ADVN OF THE BNDRY...AND WITH THE TRAILING SHRTWV ON SATURDAY
NGT. GIVEN THAT LACK OF SPPRT...AND LACK OF ANY INSTABILTY...WORDING
FOR LIGHT PCPN WAS INCLUDED...AS WAS MINIMAL QPF.

IN ADDITION...WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF THE UPR DISTURBANCE WOULD
SPPRT RAIN INITIALLY...BUT CHANGE TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS
COLDER AIR DRIFTS SWD.

COOL HIGH PRES WL SLITHER OVR THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BUT THIS BRIEF
INTRUSION OF COLD AIR LKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH FLOW PROGRESSION
RESUMING WARM ADVCTN LTR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM WILL REMAINS QUIET UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WED. ENSEMBLES AND LATEST GFS SEEM
TO BE IN OKAY AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT AND LOW WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THEY ARE ALSO INDICATING AN OPEN WAVE WITH ONLY MINOR
INTENSIFICATION. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD AIRS MARCH SOUTHWARD WILL
BE HELD AT BAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH NC/VA.
THIS WOULD MEAN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH...SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW.

COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK IN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRES RETAINING
CONTROL OF UPPER OH VALLEY WEATHER. LIGHT PCPN...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SAT AS A COLDFRONT SLIDES OVR THE AREA. GENL MVFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS CIGS DROP BELOW 3KFT

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WL RTN WITH DECISIVE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT EARLY ON SUNDAY. THE
NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH MID WEEK LOW PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$