Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 160831 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
331 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
-- Changed Discussion --A warm front will bring warmer temperatures today, with
increasing rain chances tonight and Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
While Doppler radar is showing weak echoes moving across eastern
Ohio and nrn West Virginia, this looks to be mid deck or virga
with dry low levels under the mid deck. Frontal boundary will
begin to push north later today with temperatures rising through
the evening. Expect rain showers to slowly increase from south to
north in the late afternoon, but still chance POPs. Possibility for
a brief period of sleet across the north as precip begins with wet
bulbing, but with a low probability have left out of grids for
now. Temperatures will warm well into the 40s south, and reach
near 40 north by evening.
Not much of a diurnal drop in temperatures expected overnight
with increasing deep moisture in warm advection. Temperatures will
fall a bit mainly due to wet bulbing, as rain becomes widespread
across the region overnight with an approaching shortwave.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain will continue Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast over
the Great Lakes, with very mild temperatures ahead of the system.
The parent upper trough will cross the region Wednesday with
showers ending and slightly cooler temperatures.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Eastern CONUS ridge will give dry and mild conditions Thursday.
Deterministic models differ on strong shortwave moving toward the
Ohio valley for Friday, as well as a deepening full latitude mid
level trough moving east toward the weekend. A modified model
blend was used from Friday onward to smooth POPs and temperatures
and for surrounding office coordination.
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions should gradually deteriorate to MVFR through the
day from S-N in warm, moist advection ahead of an approaching warm
front. Further deterioration to IFR is expected by this evening as
rain overspreads the area.
Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low