Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180158 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 958 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AT 10PM...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSIT EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO CREEP UP A BIT TODAY...AND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...THEY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANDER NORTHWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOWS TONIGHT SEEM POISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST 36-48 HOURS WILL START TO TRANSIT EAST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO PASS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH THIS FEATURE AND NOW PASS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHEARING OUT AS IT PASSES...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT AT ALL A CERTAINTY IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TRANSITS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT FULL LAYER SATURATION...LAYER RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE 70-80 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT PASSES. AS A RESULT...WHILE ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS...BUT POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT TO A MINIMUM. AS THAT SYSTEM SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...TEMPORARY COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE RIDGING SEEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO NORTH OF +10C. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. FRIES && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.