Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 272204 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 604 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SPC HAS PLACES THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BASED UPON THE LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE...THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE FORECAST FAVORS THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SAID AREA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WANDERS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MORNING. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR INTO THE EVENING. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN OHIO TOWARD 00Z AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE WESTERN MOST PORTS AND WELL AS KFKL. WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION...SO VCSH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEHIND BOUNDARY EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN COOL ADVECTION AS WIND SHIFTS WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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