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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231709
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
109 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS OF
POPS AND TEMPS AS THE CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.
SFC WIND IS ALREADY VEERING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROF...BUT
APPRECIABLY DRIER AIR SHOULD NOT BE ANTICIPATED UNTIL TNGT.
LIKELY POPS WERE ADJUSTED SWD WITH EXPECTATIONS OF AFTN/EARLY EVE
SHRTWV SPPRT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY VIA HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS
ARND 70F. POP DIMINISHMENT FM THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
EVE...AND FRONT PROGRESS THIS EVE.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE BASED ON PERSISTENCE TWEAKED VIA NAM GUIDANCE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LINGERING SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS WERE RETAINED FOR AREAS S AND E OF
PIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS
THE STABILIZING UPR OH REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED IN ITS ENTIRETY FROM MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STARTING
TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM KCAK
AND KYNG AT THIS HOUR. SOME VCSH WAS RETAINED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE BIGGEST CHANCE TO THE TAFS WAS TO ADD COLD
ADVECTION STRATUS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVEN AS THE STRATUS STARTS
TO LIFT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
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&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$