Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281357 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 857 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TO PROVIDE THE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LONG GONE BY DAWN. THE CAA WILL END WITH THE EJECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD POOL WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES FOR MERCER AND VENANGO COUNTIES AND ALSO FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING. TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EVERYWHERE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. NW WIND WILL BACK TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007-008. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041. && $$

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