Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 040543 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 143 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COMPLEX...ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH AND THE WAVE ITSELF SHEARS NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL AND SAT PICS...IN CORRELATION...ARE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ISOLATED. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. NO CHANGE TO THE WARM AND HUMID.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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