Area Forecast Discussion
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195 FXUS61 KPBZ 290534 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 134 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm chances continue overnight. Weak high pressure will keep Memorial Day mostly dry with seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The ongoing forecast aligns well with current conditions and trends as a cold front begins to cross into western zones. Rain rates have been on the decrease over the past hour and expect this to continue through the night. Northern Indiana county....Jefferson county...and areas along and north of I-80 have received a good deal of rain today, however, additional rain is not expected to result in any further flood issues as rain amounts observed upstream with the approaching front which will cross the region shortly have been relatively low. Previous discussion follows.. Evening update made to nix the flash flood watch as the focus for heavy rain and localized flooding has shifted northward in the vicinity of the warm front with residual outflow boundaries allowing for additional storms to develop. Overall, expect strength of storms to diminish with time with the loss of heating, but threat for heavy rain will linger until the approach of the cold front tonight. Latest HRRR keeps this reasoning, as the bulk of the precipitation remains situated north and east of the turnpike. Will outline this area in the hazardous weather outlook for the night with the thought that most of the water issues will remain localized. Cold front is still progged to pass overnight, with it east of the region by 8am. Warm advection and low level mixing should be sufficient to keep temperatures above seasonal averages tonight. Weak surface and mid level ridging should keep most of Monday dry before a shortwave, pivoting through the broad upper trough centered over the Great Lakes, brings the return of moist, southerly flow and convergence for precipitation late. Temperatures should be close to or just above seasonal norms. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave will skim the region to our north Monday night and Tuesday, bringing another front across the region that should provide some scattered showers. Held off on thunder for Tuesday for now as models disagree on stability, however steepening lapse rates may allow for it. Precipitation coverage will wane behind the boundary Tuesday night. Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The Great Lakes/northeast CONUS trough will remain through the end of the week, with periodic shower chances from shortwaves moving through the flow. By next weekend, the upper pattern becomes more zonal, and a frontal boundary could stall out somewhere near or in our region. This boundary could provide more focused rainfall chances, but its placement remains in question. Temperatures will remain near or just a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Occasional MVFR/local IFR conditions are expected in showers ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated thunderstorms are possible until FROPA but with limited coverage did not include in the TAFs. A brief period of MVFR ceilings are expected behind the front, with VFR returning this morning as surface ridging builds in. A wind shift from SW to W is also expected with FROPA. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible Tue/Wed with an upper trough, and again Fri with low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.