


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --260 FXUS61 KPBZ 010600 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Showers and thunderstorms will continue today with a crossing cold front. High pressure will return dry weather to the region Wednesday. A weak cold front will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday, before high pressure returns dry and warm weather through Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGES: - Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today - Marginal Risk for severe storms across a portion of the area - Localized flash flooding also possible --------------------------------------------------------------- Showers and thunderstorms are expected today along and ahead of an approaching pre frontal trough and an associated shortwave trough. The latest CAMs indicate this convection should develop by mid to late morning across areas W of PIT, with increasing coverage as diurnal instability develops. Around 1500 j/kg of MU CAPE is depicted in the HREF mean by early afternoon, with 0-6 km shear increasing to 35-40kt. Some storms will have the potential for damaging wind gusts with increasing mid level flow. The Storm Prediction Center has the area from near a line from DUJ to PIT to ZZV and points east in a Marginal Risk, or level 1 out of 5, for severe storms today. PWATS will generally be lower today for much of the area, with a NW-SE gradient. NW PA should see values around 1.5, with areas across northern WV ranging from 1.8 to 2.0. The increasing flow aloft should result in faster storm motion today, though if any training or backbuilding occurs a localized flash flood potential is possible. Will include both the localized flood potential and the severe weather potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The surface cold front is progged to approach the region toward evening, though the main upper level forcing, shear, and instability are expected to be associated with the pre frontal trough earlier in the day.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGES: - Patchy fog tonight - Dry Wednesday - Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday ---------------------------------------------------------------- Much of the convection associated with the pre frontal trough should be exiting the area to the east this evening. The surface cold front will then cross the Upper Ohio Valley region, keeping some chances of showers/storms until FROPA. A clearing sky, nearly calm wind, and moist ground could lead to some patchy fog tonight. This should quickly mix out and dissipate Wednesday morning, with dry weather then expected through Wednesday night as a ridge of surface high pressure builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region. A shortwave trough, and its associated surface cold front, is expected to track sewd across the Upper Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Very dry air aloft will likely inhibit updraft growth, limiting showers/thunderstorm chances. Included only slight chance POPs at this time. Temperatures should continue to average a few degrees above seasonable levels through the period.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGES: - Dry through the first half of the holiday weekend - Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm chances returning Sunday and Monday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Model ensembles indicate a ridge will shift eastward from the Midwest Friday and Saturday, resulting in dry and warm weather across the Upper Ohio Valley region. The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week, with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning. Even as the ridge flattens, 500 mb heights are still expected to be near 590 dam. This will keep hot and humid conditions across the region, with highs possible again around 90 Sunday and Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Most showers have dissipated this morning save for clusters near and south of MGW. Lingering low-level moisture will allow a MVFR/IFR stratus deck to develop before dawn, impacting most sites for at least several hours. This and just enough mixing should keep widespread fog from developing. Slow cig improvement is expected after sunrise, following by an additional round of showers and thunderstorms late morning through the afternoon with the approach of a cold front. Highest probabilities for rain run generally along and southeast of a line from ZZV through PIT to DUJ. Residual moisture behind the front will likely aid widespread low stratus development and patchy fog again Tuesday night. Outlook... VFR returns Wednesday under high pressure, before restriction and thunderstorm potential returns with a Thursday cold front. VFR is expected again by Friday under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WM NEAR TERM...WM SHORT TERM...WM LONG TERM...WM AVIATION...Rackley