Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221722 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1222 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm conditions are expected until the passage of a cold front tonight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Bulk of showers have moved out of the region this morning, with a break anticipated through early afternoon before moisture returns with a shortwave ahead of the advancing cold front. Mainly minor adjustments were needed based on the latest observations and trends though some slowing of the actual front per the latest nam/hrrr/rap combo does not bring in likely PoPs until 00z. Today will be a warm day with temperature about 30 degrees above the averages given the Upper Ohio region is firmly within the warm sector of a deepening plains low. Shallow mixing should not tap the warmth aloft, so records will not be threatened despite the late January warmth. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The Plains low is still projected to dig across the Great Lakes by early Tuesday with Monday night cold frontal passage for the Upper Ohio. Categorical POPs were maintained, but system progression, a lack of instability, and mid level dry slot encroachment should limit rainfall amounts to a half inch or less. Seasonable temperature in the wake of the front is expected to change rain showers to snow on Tuesday with upper support via the crossing mid level trough. Progression and a relatively warm boundary layer should limit accumulation potential before snow shower chances taper off with building high pressure on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Building high pressure in advance of another low emerging over the Plains is likely to dry and warm conditions before rain chances return for next weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR will reign this afternoon and early evening as we are now firmly in the warm sector of the approaching system. As this system nears, a tightening gradient will bring llws areawide, beginning near 00z and persisting until daybreak Tuesday. Showers associated with the front will follow closely behind, lowering ceilings toward MVFR west to east in the overnight hours. Can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder as the main line of showers passes tonight, but this activity should be too limited for inclusion at this time. Restrictions will likely only last a few hours before increased mixing after daybreak Tuesday lifts ceilings. This mixing will bring the stronger winds to the surface, leading to gusty southwest winds, during Tuesday. .OUTLOOK... Restriction potential will continue until high pressure builds on Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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