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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240516
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
116 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --After a cold front passes through the region overnight, dry
weather and seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --For the overnight update only minor adjustments to sky grids,
remainder of forecast unchanged, previous discussion follows.

Removed all mention of precipitation through the remainder of the
night, despite HRRR/RAP insistence on developing showers behind
the advancing front. Radar is clear at this time and there is not
enough support to generate much behind the front in a stabilizing
environment. However, still expect low clouds to overspread the
region through the night. On Saturday, clouds will slowly decrease
from north to south as drier air sinks in. Overnight low
temperatures were modified slightly based on a hi-res blend. Daytime
highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today`s
values.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain over the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Low pressure developing over the Northern Plains will then
move to the east, bringing another cold front to the region. Models
still are wobbling on the exact arrival time, but rain should move
into the region sometime on Monday and come to an end late Monday
night. Will increase pops again, but still do not have quite enough
confidence to bump up pops to likely at this point. Although
temperatures during this time period will not be as warm as they
have been this week, they will still run a couple of degrees above
normal.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There could be some leftover showers Tuesday morning behind the
front and Tuesday night is expected to be dry. As winds veer to the
west-northwest on Wednesday, some lake effect rain showers could
develop, as 850mb temperatures will be as low as 5-6 C while Lake
Erie surface temperatures are between 20-25 C. As winds veer to the
north and high pressure moves into the region, another period of dry
weather is expected. Behind Monday`s cold front, an extended period
of slightly below normal temperatures is expected, with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will generally deteriorate through the night as a
cold front drops in from the north. Restrictions, including some
IFR ceilings, are expected tonight and into Saturday morning.
Still some questions as to how far south and east the IFR ceilings
invade, but the northern terminals of FKL/DUJ stand the best
chance to see them.

Winds will shift to the north behind the advancing front, but
flow will remain light through the period.

Dry advection and subsidence with building high pressure will
ensure VFR thereafter.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with a late Monday
cold front.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

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