Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191401 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1001 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Advancing low pressure will spread more widespread rain over the Upper Ohio Valley Region tonight and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The mid morning update featured adjustments mainly for cloud cover based on the latest observations and near term models. Scattered/chance precip probabilities will linger today along and south of the I 70 corridor where the frontal boundary has stalled. Temperatures will remain well above the averages given the lack of cold advection in the wake of the front. Low pressure will develop along the front across the lower Ohio Valley and dig northeastward tonight as mid level troughing amplifies over the Plains. The advance of that system will again increase precip probability tonight, and cumulate in categorical numbers for Thursday. Have used OHRFC guidance for the QPF of this system which projects a general one to two inches over the next 48 hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Much cooler temperatures are expected over the region through the weekend, as upper level troughing develops over the Eastern CONUS. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast through Sunday, mainly for northern and ridge zones, as cold advection continues and shortwaves in northwest flow traverse the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry, but seasonably cool conditions are anticipated as high pressure builds for the start of the new work week. Slightly modified Superblend guidance was used for the extended period. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MVFR with local IFR is expected this morning as a cold front stalls near the I 70 corridor. Improvement to VFR is expected by afternoon as mixing lifts the cloud bases. MVFR to local IFR is expected again overnight as low pressure moving along the front approaches, and shower coverage increases. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Periodic restrictions are expected through late week as a series of low pressure areas cross the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.