Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 021014
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
514 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
Low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near
seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Mid level trough over eastern Canada will continue to transition
east through tonight, with weak cold advection across the region.
Southwest flow today will keep bulk of lake enhanced snow showers
or sprinkles well north, with only scattered snow showers north
of I-80 and in the ridges. Clouds will keep temperatures from
rising any if at all through the day. Flow will turn slightly more
to the northwest tonight, which will allow for a bit more coverage
of snow showers into the ridges and I-80 corridor, but only a
light accumulation if any.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Snow showers Saturday morning will diminish by afternoon as
surface high pressure builds east. Split mid level flow on Sunday
brings timing issues, as well as amount of and type of precip for
later Sunday into early Monday. Southern stream moisture does not
look to get involved as a northern stream shortwave does not phase
with southern stream, and exits quickly east Monday. As such
system will be moisture starved, with chance pops for rain or snow
showers mainly Sunday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages through the period.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deepening mid level trough into the northern Rockies mid week will
bring a double barreled low pressure system northeast from the
deep south to New England by Wednesday. Once again shortwaves will
be out of phase, so while likely pops were forecast Tuesday, QPF
will likely be light. Relatively mild Wednesday ahead of
approaching low pressure and a strong cold front. Timing issues
still need to be resolved with the cold front, and a model blend
was used. Behind the front much colder air will arrive for late
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broad upper troughing and cold W-WNW flow should maintain a
stratocu layer across the area through the TAF period. MVFR
cigs are expected for ports N of PIT, and a few snow showers are
possible as a weak shortwave crosses in the afternoon. VFR cigs
from PIT south early this morning should deteriorate to MVFR after
sunrise as lower cigs move in from the W.
Gusty west winds are expected especially during the daylight
hours as a tight pressure gradient exists across the area.
Ceiling restrictions are likely through Saturday night in cold
W-NW flow. Restrictions are possible late Sunday/Monday, and again
Tuesday with low pressure.