Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011351 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 951 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMER WEATHER WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POOR MIXING CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR PERVASIVE STRATUS AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER THAN IN THE EASTERNMOST REACHES WHERE RAIN WAS AT A PREMIUM LAST EVENING. WITH LITTLE IMPETUS FOR VERTICAL MIXING...IT SEEMS LIKELY FOG/STRATUS WILL HAVE TO MIX OUT FROM THE EDGES. AS A RESULT...SLOW BREAKUP IS EXPECTED FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST AND NORTH TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FORMATION OF CUMULUS SUBSEQUENT TO ANY BREAKUP OF LOW CLOUDS SEEMS LIKELY. AS SUCH...NO LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN OR BECOME TOTALLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... MID AND UPR LVL RIDGING WL BLD INTO THE RGN TNGT THRU THU BRINGING DRY AND WRM WEA. A CDFNT WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY RGN FRI WITH SUFFICIENT SPPRT FOR WDSPRD SHWRS. GFS/ECMWF PROGGED INSTBY FIELDS RMN LOW SO ONLY MAINTAINED A CHC FOR TSTMS...THOUGH INCRG WNDS ALOFT WL INCR SHEAR VALUES SOME BY THE LT FRI AFTN/EVE FROPA. UPR TROFG AND COOL AIR ALOFT BY SAT WL KEEP SHWR CHCS IN THE FCST...WITH THE BEST CHCS N OF PIT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED. ABV AVG LT WK TEMPS WL DROP TO WELL BLO SEASONAL LVLS BY THE WKEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER MOST THE AREA. THIS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO RETURN UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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