Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271027 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 627 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low pressure on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Whatever is left of the weak boundary over West Virginia will continue to wobble under the zonal flow aloft. Each small juxtaposition is caused by the passage of upper level energy in the aforementioned flow. With daytime heating, and its resultant atmospheric destabilization, spotty convection could fire over the southern edge of my forecast area. The good news for most of us is the real juicy air will remain shunted to the south, and allow for warm but comfortable conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on Thursday. For now, highest POPS and QPF resides over the southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low should progress. Still seeing model differences in the path of surface wave and the upper level support which will enhance it Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. System will slowly exit Friday decreasing pop and cloud coverage. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A series of shortwaves and development of a broad, but shallow trough over the Eastern CONUS is forecast to support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Ridging should return dry weather by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Cig restrictions at MGW will improve to VFR mid-morning as mixing increase with VFR conditions the remainder of the day across the region. There is a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm south of KPIT but potential is too low for inclusion in the TAFs at this point and recent RAP soundings have trended more stable over the past several hours. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure may return potential restrictions late Thursday and Friday, with upper troughing maintaining periodic restriction chances through the weekend.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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