Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231351 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 951 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... After another warm day, a cold front will return temperature to seasonal levels. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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With mid morning update, made some slight tweaks to hourly temperature trends for warmer temperatures to the north, along with minimal changes to sky cover. Mid and high clouds have moved into northwest PA and eastern OH in advance of a developing New England upper trough and a weak cold front. Expect more cloud cover across the north into the afternoon, with temperatures to continue more than 10 degrees above average ahead of the front. The weak boundary will cross and exit the area Friday night, and while a sprinkle or two is possible no POPs will be in the forecast, as moisture is limited and the better dynamics continue to be well north of the region. Temperatures will be decreasing back toward normal values Saturday
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will bring near seasonal temperatures and dry conditions through Sunday night. An approaching area of low pressure will bring increasing dew points and a chance for showers later Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models coming into better agreement with slow moving storm system from the Great Lakes translating east with an associated cold front into Wednesday. Models still differ on strength and speed of system, so Superblend was used for much of the forecast period with chance POPs through Tuesday tapering to isolated showers Wednesday. Dry and cool high pressure will dominate late week. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR will prevail until passage of a cold front this evening. Light wind will continue, but expect a shift to the west, northwest as mixing ensues by afternoon. Restrictions are possible tonight and into Saturday morning, as the front sags across the region. Dry advection and subsidence with building high pressure will ensure VFR thereafter. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will come with an early week cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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