Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270516 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 116 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ACTIVITY THAT EARLIER WAS MOVING ACROSS NE OHIO HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. SO IN RESPONSE... HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PREVENT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN EASTERN RIDGE. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER STABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT WILL DESTABILIZE AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL NOSE IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THIS INCREASE IN BUOYANCY...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PLACE FOR ACTIVITY WOULD BE ACROSS THE THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG A LINE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. EXPECT A RANGE OF TEMPS TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH FINALLY ARRIVES. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT THESE WILL END QUICKLY. COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LONG TERM STILL LOOKING WARM...HUMID AND ACTIVE. AT THIS POINT... MODEL DISCREPANCIES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION. BUT AT THIS POINT...WOULD THINK SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER BOUNDARY.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THRU WED WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. A WK CDFNT WL MOVE INTO NW PA LT TNGT WITH AN INCR IN SC AND SCT SHWRS. A PD OF MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL N OF I 80 AFT FROPA...PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE CDFNT WL ADVN SWD THRU WED WITH SCT SHWRS. TSTMS ARE ALSO PSBL WED AFTN MAINLY S OF PIT. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING PSBL SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SUN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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