Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 052030 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 330 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLEARING WITH NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND COLD WEATHER FRIDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE MARCH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF WIND OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW -15 THERE. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND -13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND GEFS GUIDANCE, && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND UNDERCUTTING THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS BROKEN AND IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. THIS IS OCCURRING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PULL AWAY AS THE LARGE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A QUICK CLEARING OF SKIES THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. TAX .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY...
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A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.
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&& .CLIMATE... PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926. MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960. ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978. PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901. MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND 1972. ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$

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