Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300106 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 906 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week, with continued warm temperatures.
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Most of the activity over the area has dissipated as instability wanes. The cold front is currently crossing northwest Ohio, with a band of thunderstorms currently preceding the front across the north-central part of Ohio. A weakening trend should continue with these storms over the next few hours as they encounter a more stable regime, although a few of them may survive long enough to affect the northwest fringe of the CWA. To the east, little activity is foreseen overnight. Some spotty fog is possible in areas that received rainfall today. The front will approach the Ohio River towards 12Z with relatively little fanfare. Temperatures were updated with latest guidance, and were lowered a bit in some areas. Monday will feature a general decrease in cloud cover and a slight decrease in dewpoints. An isolated shower or storm will remain possible along the ridges as the cold front trudges eastward. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather for the middle portion of the week. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels using a blend of GFS gridded MOS and consensus guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models in good overall agreement on a cold front approaching the region by Thursday afternoon and attempting to push east by Friday. A shortwave ahead of a trough axis moving across the great lakes may slow progression of the front Friday until trough passes so chance pops continued. No significant changes for Saturday with chance pops mainly for the ridges with lingering low level moisture. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend toward the seasonal average late week. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Most shower and thunderstorm activity has ceased for the time being across the area, with VFR conditions prevailing. Scattered storms are lined up ahead of a cold front across western Ohio. The front is making slow eastward progress, and may take until sunrise to reach the Ohio River. Although a storm may survive long enough to threaten restriction across eastern Ohio later tonight, the chances are slim, and thus currently have no mention in the ZZV TAF. Overnight, fog will be the bigger question. Have continued with a forecast favoring persistence, with IFR forecast at those terminals that saw those restrictions last night. AGC is likely to fog tonight given the heavy rainfall earlier today. Fog should dissipate by midmorning Monday, with VFR conditions then expected for the remainder of the day as the cold front crosses with little precipitation. CL .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front Thursday night into Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.