Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180118 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 818 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer, but damp weather can be expected through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... The late eve update featured further adjustments to POPs as the rain area has diminished with ewd progress of the supporting shortwave. The chance for measurable precip will continue to diminish and temperature is expected to remain above freezing for all areas. Given expected temperature/dewpoint spreads, have delayed, and restricted the drizzle mention to areas in vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary, i.e. areas north of Pittsburgh. Previous... An early eve update was issued to adjust hourly trends of temperature and precipitation based on the radar, obs, and consensus short guidance. Light rain associated with a weakening upper level shortwave will spread across the region through this evening. For the most part, temperatures remain above freezing, with marginal readings along the I 80 corridor where minimal precip is anticipated. No headline is thus anticipated. Cloud cover and light precip chances will support very little diurnal temperature change for tonight and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Zonal flow is maintained, though weak ripples in the upper level pattern may be enough to generate additional light precip. Have cut back PoPs significantly since forcing remains weak and much of the moisture remains under about 2kft. Strengthening warm advection Tuesday ahead of a slightly more amplified wave will support above average temperature with values closer to normal in cold advection/northwest flow. Building surface ridge should lend to little more than cloud cover wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Zonal flow returns Thursday with some amplification in the upper level pattern as wave ejects into the Plains. This will be the next notable system progged to approach late in the period, with some differences between the guidance in timing. Stayed close to the Superblend for the end of the week with some moderation in warm advection to above average temperature by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions are anticipated into Monday as light rain and drizzle will prevail under an inversion trapped over the region. Expect IFR with low stratus by Monday morning in vicinity of the frontal boundary draped near the I 80 corridor. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely through Tuesday, as abundant low-level moisture remains trapped under the inversion. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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