Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301837 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 237 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather continues through tonight and into Wednesday. A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cooler pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Dry air aloft on the 12Z sounding is mixing down well, resulting in a drop in dewpoints at many locations. Skies are clear for the most part this afternoon, although some cirrus will be seen later. Still think any terrain-based convection will remain off to the south of the CWA. Surface high pressure will continue to slide east tonight. A shortwave and associated cold front will make its way across the Great Lakes through 12Z. Clouds will begin to increase especially after 06Z as isentropic upglide develops aloft, but the lower levels should remain too dry to allow precipitation prior to 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main event will be the cold frontal passage late Wednesday and Wednesday night. The best support for lift will lie across the northern counties, closer to the crossing shortwave. Have increased PoPs to likely in this area while keeping lower values to the south. Moisture increases after 18Z, with precipitable water increasing back into the 1.75 to 2.0 inch range. Some model soundings take on a moist adiabatic look late Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Given the relatively low instability, this should keep severe probabilities quite low and in agreement with the SPC Day 2 outlook. However, we cannot rule out some at least briefly heavier rainfall rates, given the high moisture content and sufficient warm cloud depths. Still, flooding does not appear to be a threat at this time. Kept some low PoPs southeast of PIT early on Thursday as the front crosses the ridges. Surface high pressure builds in later Thursday with a trough in the mid levels. This brings in a drier and cooler air mass through Friday, with temperatures below climatology both Thursday and Friday afternoons. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The extended forecast will be very quiet through the holiday weekend. Ridging is progged across much of the eastern CONUS through Labor Day, with dry weather and gradually warming temperatures expected. Clouds may be on the increase on Tuesday, but precipitation should still remain west of the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Cloud cover will begin to increase by Wednesday morning, but precipitation should remain west of terminals through the 24 hour TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms were added to the extended portion of the PIT TAF. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Restrictions will be possible with a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but the remainder of the period should have VFR conditions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.