Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300534 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 134 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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MIDNIGHT UPDATE MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST HRRR/LAMP GUIDANCE. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY...DONT FORESEE MAKING LARGE CHANGES WITH NEXT UPDATE. TAX PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED MOST OF ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING A CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ITS TREND TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVEL DECREASES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST. TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND 15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM. WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S. MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT FRONT MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE OBSERVED TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING AS LARGE STRATO CU FIELD DESCENDS FOLLOWING A PLUME OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE. FKL AND DUJ WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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