Area Forecast Discussion
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455 FXUS61 KPBZ 191227 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 727 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system crosses the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Adjusted sky grids for stratus closer to satellite and surface observations for the morning update. No other changes and previous discussion follows. Expect some morning clouds, mainly over the southern half of the area, as a period of weak cold air advection swings through behind the exiting shortwave trough. Most of the clouds will decay by the afternoon. With the cloud cover and weak cold air advection, temperatures will not be as warm as Saturday but will still be well above normal. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong ridging builds in the wake of the departing low through this period, with 500mb heights approaching 576dam by Tuesday morning. With nearly clear skies and warm advection, expect the continuation of very warm temperatures through Tuesday, before a cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon/night. With such a strong ridge in place over the east, have slowed the onset of showers from previous forecast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term continues to highlight an above-average temperature trend, as has been suggested by long-range guidance. Despite the passage of the front Tuesday night, mid-level ridging will quickly build back over the eastern CONUS as the trough amplifies over the southwestern US and then ejects into the central Plains by the end of period. Looks like a return to more normal temperatures by the weekend. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR stratus has developed across southern ports and is spreading north and east, especially up the front side of the ridges. With weak cool advection to continue this morning, have kept stratus in southern ports until 16-18Z, and have added MVFR to KPIT and AGC, as well as KDUJ. Uncertainty is with sunrise how quickly status can be mixed, and this may be too pessimistic for KPIT and surrounding ports. Southwest winds will become west near 10 KTs through the day. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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