Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271740 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 140 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and mainly dry conditions can be expected until the approach of low pressure later tonight and on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Early afternoon update to adjust max temperatures up a degree or two most locations based on noon readings. No other changes and previous discussion follows. Weak boundary looks to be near or just south of Interstate 70 late morning based on current observations, with dew points still near 70 south of the boundary. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop late afternoon along this region, so no changes were made to POPs. Adjusted sky cover with more sunshine across the north late this morning. No changes to previous forecasted max temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on Thursday. For now, highest POPS and QPF resides over the southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low should progress. Still seeing model differences in the path of surface wave and the upper level support which will enhance it Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. System will slowly exit Friday decreasing pop and cloud coverage. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A series of shortwaves and development of a broad, but shallow trough over the Eastern CONUS is forecast to support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Ridging should return dry weather by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through much of tonight with high pressure over most of the area. Patchy MVFR fog is expected near dawn Thursday, mainly near a stalled surface boundary south of I 70 where more favorable low level moisture is progged. This should mix out after dawn, though MVFR CU ceilings are expected in this same area thereafter. Approaching low pressure should result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday south of I 80, though much of the precip should be after the TAF period. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic restriction potential through Monday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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