Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 042034 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 334 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Some locations in the higher elevations are expected to receive freezing rain tonight. An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week, with much colder air arriving by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... System coming through the region has become a bit better organized, and widespread precipitation is expected this evening. With the amount of dry air present locally, some wetbulb effects are expected with the initial moisture, driving temperatures down. However, with warm air advection across the southern half of the area, any falling precipitation should melt before reaching the surface. Considering temperatures have hovered around freezing all day in most of Garrett County and are expected to drop after sunset, have issued a winter weather advisory for freezing rain there as well as eastern Tucker county. Cannot rule out a possible expansion westward into Preston county or northward into the Fayette or Westmoreland ridges, which will be monitored by future shifts. Along the Interstate 80 corridor, temperatures should remain above freezing, but without warm air aloft, think that precipitation should generally fall as a rain/snow mix with little if any snow accumulation. Cannot rule out a lingering shower into Monday morning, but all precipitation should be east of the region by the afternoon. Although clouds will remain tomorrow afternoon, it will probably be the sunniest period through the work week. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Clouds will stream back in Monday night in advance of a low pressure system that will move across the region. As precipitation moves in Monday night and Tuesday morning, many places could have a brief period of freezing rain before warm advection changes all precipitation over to rain by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued with categorical pops through this time period, with rain changing over to snow as it wraps up late Tuesday night into Wednesday. High temperatures in the low to mid 40s on Tuesday will likely be the warmest readings of the 7 day forecast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Yet another system moves through Thursday, with a cold front bringing another chance for precip. Most of this precipitation would likely fall as snow, and behind the front temperatures will plunge into the teens by Thursday night. Cold advection should then prompt snow showers to continue through Saturday morning. Temperatures will struggle to recover, but another cold front will approach from the west Sunday. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR and light sfc wind will prevail into the evening as high pressure slides across the region. Nevertheless, extensive upr and mid lvl cloud cover will persist via warm, moist advection in advance of an advancing shortwave. That system will spread rain/mix of snow and deteriorate conditions to low MVFR and IFR for tonight and early Monday. MVFR stratocu is then expected to persist into the afternoon given the cold flow off the Lakes in the wake of the surface front. .OUTLOOK... More restrictions are likely with, and in the wake of Tuesday low pressure. More restrictions will follow with a strong late week cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday FOR MDZ001. OH...None. PA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday FOR WVZ514. && $$

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