Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 271740
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
140 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
Warm and mainly dry conditions can be expected until the approach
of low pressure later tonight and on Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early afternoon update to adjust max temperatures up a degree or
two most locations based on noon readings. No other changes and
previous discussion follows.
Weak boundary looks to be near or just south of Interstate 70 late
morning based on current observations, with dew points still near
70 south of the boundary. Expect isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop late afternoon along this region, so
no changes were made to POPs. Adjusted sky cover with more
sunshine across the north late this morning. No changes to
previous forecasted max temperatures.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on
Thursday. For now, highest POPS and QPF resides over the
southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low
should progress. Still seeing model differences in the path of
surface wave and the upper level support which will enhance it
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
System will slowly exit Friday decreasing pop and cloud coverage.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of shortwaves and development of a broad, but shallow
trough over the Eastern CONUS is forecast to support periodic rain
chances and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Ridging
should return dry weather by the middle of next week.
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions are expected through much of tonight with high
pressure over most of the area. Patchy MVFR fog is expected near
dawn Thursday, mainly near a stalled surface boundary south of I
70 where more favorable low level moisture is progged. This should
mix out after dawn, though MVFR CU ceilings are expected in this
same area thereafter.
Approaching low pressure should result in increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances Thursday south of I 80, though much of the
precip should be after the TAF period.
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic restriction
potential through Monday.
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