Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 040848 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 348 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week, with much colder air arriving for late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As the surface high shifts east later today increasing mid and high level moisture will will keep skies cloudy, as complex northern and southern stream shortwaves approach. Weak warm advection will keep temperatures near the seasonal averages this afternoon. Tonight shortwaves in the northern and southern stream will quickly move east with a frontal boundary. As precip begins expect some wet bulbing, and this looks to allow for a rain snow mix over much of the area, with a period of freezing rain possible across the higher ridge elevations mainly in the evening. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on how long below freezing temperatures can remain in the ridges, so for now will highlight freezing rain possibility in the HWO. Elsewhere little snow accumulation is expected with weak warm advection helping temperatures to warm a bit overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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System will exit east early monday morning with precipitation ending. By later Monday night and Tuesday a strengthening low pressure area will move toward the lower Ohio Valley with rain spreading northeast across the region. Precip may start as a bit of freezing rain in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday, but strong warm advection will quickly bring plain rain for the daylight hours Tuesday. This system exits by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be near the seasonal averages through much of the period, with the exception of above average temperatures Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The next widespread chance for precipitation arriving on Thursday with a potent cold front. Behind the front, the coldest air of the season will move in for Friday and into the weekend. Snow showers will continue in cold advection behind the front.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... With our region remaining in northwest flow ahead of a building ridge, some low cigs in stratus and occasional snow showers remain, mainly north of PIT. Expect the IFR and low MVFR cigs to gradually improve at KFKL and KDUJ, with VFR expected to continue at all other terminals. Stratus will gradually be replaced by high clouds in advance of the next system progged to approach late Sunday. Will start to trend back down toward MVFR as suggested in all guidance with the approach of this weak front, with lower restrictions possible by the end of the TAF period. Wind will remain light out of the w-nw, gradually shifting to southeasterly ahead of the boundary. .OUTLOOK... Lingering restrictions possible early Monday followed by VFR until the next system approaches late Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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