Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 060135 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 935 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SUNK SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. UPPER LOW SPINS AROUND THE BASE OF THE H500 TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BEGINS TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TONIGHT. NEW OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW FORMS AS WELL...WITH SYSTEM BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED FRIDAY. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIDGES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH IS WHERE POPS ARE CONCENTRATED. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO POP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON SOUTHEAST OHIO. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN THE RIDGES AND HIGH CHANCE POPS BACK TOWARD PITTSBURGH...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE FILLING UPPER LOW. AGAIN...THINK COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 850HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE LOW FILLS SO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPPER PATTERN AND PUSHED EAST AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE POPS FOR A BRIEF TIME SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER GOOD WHICH SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAYS TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM 850HPA TEMPS RETURN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL PIVOT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL QUELL SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP CEILINGS FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LOW MVFR ALONG OUR EAST...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP. FRIDAY WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND AT 10KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. TAX .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SATURDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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