Area Forecast Discussion
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546 FXUS61 KPBZ 240824 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 424 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will maintain shower chances and cool temperatures through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Broad dry slot has essentially ended precipitation over most of the region, save for a few showers as the upper level jet strengthens across the Ohio Valley and a secondary cold front approaches. Still think low chance PoPs cover the current coverage. Coverage should increase later this morning as the large upper low pivots over the Great Lakes. Best focus will remain over Ohio where the cold pool and deeper moisture resides today. Dry air will continue to be pulled into the upper trough, limiting precip elsewhere. All being told, cooling aloft and cloud cover should still limit high temperatures today - with values closest to normal where peeks of sun are possible over WV/PA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Upper trough over the eastern CONUS will continue to influence our weather through Wednesday night, until its lifted northeastward as the next shortwave digs over the northern Plains. At least low chances for precipitation were carried through Thursday morning as the trough axis pivots across the region and we resume wnw flow/slight lake-trajectory. However, building subsidence in the wake of the departing trough may quickly end any chance for precip before temperatures are at their coldest Wednesday night. Maintained a brief snow shower mention in the forecast for the terrain as soundings still indicate a small window with moisture depth just cold enough for a few flakes. Cold pool aloft and cloud cover will likely keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below average through Thursday, with some moderation on Friday as brief upper level ridging/southwest flow resumes in advance of the next system.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Next trough will dig across the central CONUS and pivot toward the region for the weekend. Models are generally handling the scenario well, with a cold front expected Sat night/Sunday. Temperatures will likely start above average on Saturday in strong warm advection and return to below average values by the start of next week. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR stratocu is expected for much of the day under an upper trough and cold advection. Stratocu heights should return to VFR levels by late afternoon with mixing. A sufficiently tight pressure gradient should maintain gusty S-SW winds. .Outlook... Upper troughing should maintain periodic restrictions through early Thursday. Restrictions are likely with a Sat cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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