Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 032355 AAB AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 755 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF 30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.