Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151835 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 135 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather and seasonal temperatures today before light precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front. More widespread rain is expected on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Benign weather will continue the remainder of the day as high pressure continues to build back in over the forecast area. Cloud coverage heading into the evening as warm advection begins ahead of the next approaching shortwave.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low precipitation chances will return overnight across southern zones and spread north into and Monday but expect the majority of the day to be dry. In general, precipitation still looks to be primarily rain but there still is a chance some areas may see freezing rain initially, especially in the higher terrain of WV and MD. Low confidence in occurrence precludes an HWO mention at this time. There will be a much better chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday with increasing shortwave support and the surface low tracks northeast over the Great Lakes. Rain chances will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough crosses the area. Warm advection will result in temperatures climbing to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Eastern CONUS ridging is progged to develop through the weekend as a deep trough moves across the Plains and Midwest, resulting in mainly dry and warm weather for the local area through the period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels using tweaked Superblend guidance numbers. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Prevailing VFR is expected as high clouds begin to spread northward in advance of a deepening low pressure over the central Plains. Some MVFR clouds at MGW may remain in the vicinity of the airport, but still think there will be a return to VFR before deeper moisture begins to advance northward tomorrow. Maintained VCSH for very light precipitation with the lifting warm front at KZZV and KMGW based on the latest hi res guidance. This could materialize as very light freezing rain but at this time, confidence is not high enough for inclusion. Wind will remain light with surface high shifting eastward. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions can be expected with a warm front late Monday and a Tue/Wed cdfnt.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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