Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020206 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 906 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Main change was to add possibility of drizzle or freezing drizzle to areas north of Pittsburgh and along the ridges...although it is not expected to be particularly impactful or widespread. Models and the 00Z sounding show that cloud top temperatures are hovering near or just below -10C, which brings the presence of ice crystals in those clouds into question. Can already see this occurring with DZ reported at YNG during the past hour. However, forecast low temperatures will hover around freezing and relatively warm ground and road temperatures are still in place. Thus, do not foresee much impact from the possibility of FZDZ at this time, even if it technically occurs. Will not be issuing a headline at this time, leaving open the possibility of one if impact or coverage is more than currently anticipated. Otherwise, only minor tweaks to sky/PoPs/temps were performed. Winds will shift closer to due westerly by Friday, bringing a slight increase in chances for snow showers. With a solid overcast expected, temperatures will remain slightly below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As winds shift to the northwest Friday night, coverage of snow showers will slightly increase, but any snow accumulations Friday night into Saturday should remain minimal. As the low moves east late Saturday, any precipitation should come to an end. Although some partial clearing is expected Saturday night, clouds will increase once again on Sunday as the next systems approach from the west. Have slowed down the arrival of precipitation, which should generally keep the area dry during the day. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Still a bit unsure about precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday as long range models are showing that two system may bracket the area to the north and south. Stuck with chance pops. Models are in better consensus bringing precipitation in with low pressure Monday night into Tuesday, and have gone with likely pops during this time period. A bit of model uncertainty continues once again for precipitation later in the week, with the GFS not showing a potent low pressure system that the ECMWF has remained consistent with for the last couple days on Thursday. Although temperatures will be above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday`s cold front will bring in the coldest air of the season Thursday night into Friday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold advection will maintain ceilings at VFR / low MVFR levels through the period. Some colder air aloft is expected to arrive by Friday morning with a weak wave to help lower ceilings. With low level flow shifting to W-NW on Friday, anticipate periodic snow showers over the northern terminals. .OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are possible in showers through the weekend especially N of I 80 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.