Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 302337 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 737 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE RIDGES AND WILL EXIT BY 01Z. WATCH CANCELLED A BIT EARLY AS ONLY AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST STILL POSSIBLE. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD CURRENT OBS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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