Area Forecast Discussion
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987 FXUS61 KPBZ 240600 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 100 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Record breaking warmth is expected on Friday, followed by a cold front late Friday night into early Saturday morning which will eventually drop temperatures to near normal by Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Dry conditions expected the remainder of the night as the surface boundary previously draped across the northern fringes of the forecast area lifts north. Overnight temperatures will be very mild again with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s and under extensive cloud coverage. With the forecast area well within the warm sector, forecast confidence is high in regards to high temperatures today and are expected to rise into the 70s with isolated 80 degree readings...breaking records at all climate locations. Long-term confidence tools have not deviated from suggesting the prolonged warm period we have been in this week and with increased warm advection and mixing ahead of the approaching cold front along with a break in cloud coverage during the afternoon...we are going to see the warmest temperatures of the year thus far and will easily break current records.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... While there is still some minimal model disagreement in timing of the next cold front, the general consensus shows the front crossing Pittsburgh around sunrise Saturday. The timing should help to dampen the threat for severe weather. Although instability along the cold front will be limited locally, there will still be a threat for strong winds considering the wind shear along the front. SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe weather across most Ohio counties and a marginal risk elsewhere in the forecast area. The bulk of rainfall will have moved east by Saturday afternoon, and a brief lull in showers can be expected before the combination of west-northwesterly winds and colder air allows for some lake enhanced showers to develop Saturday night. Some minimal snow accumulations, less than an inch, will be possible in the favored locations along Interstate 80 and along the PA/WV/MD ridges. As high pressure builds in from the southwest, winds will lose their northerly component and all precipitation will end Sunday morning. While temperatures will remain in the 50s Friday night, temps will fall all of Saturday and Saturday night, eventually bottoming out in the 20s. Seasonal highs around 40 are forecast on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad southwest flow aloft is in place for the first portion of the extended period, before a trend towards a troughing pattern towards the end. While guidance generally agrees with this, details on shortwaves and surface systems remain murky, with model disagreement continuing. The flow and increasing moisture with time will support chances for scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. A more significant system appears possible for later Tuesday night and Wednesday, for which likely PoPs were maintained. Once again, this system will produce nealy all liquid, save for some backside snow showers later Wednesday night. Northwest flow activity may linger on Thursday. Made modifications to the SuperBlend guidance to shade more towards continuity. A trend from normal to above normal temperatures will be felt from Monday through Wednesday, before seasonal values return for Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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General VFR is expected for much of the period as we remain in the warm sector through Friday. Frontal passage will be very late in the 30 hour period, so outside of the PIT and ZZV TAF, no shra mention was made. Only concern for the forecast will be the strengthening SW winds. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 kts are possible at all ports during the afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a cold front Friday night and early Saturday. Restrictions may continue in cold advection and snow showers through early Sunday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for climate sites: Thu Fri -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 69 (1975) 66 (1985) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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