Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221128 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 728 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...THEN WARM RAPIDLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A POST DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ENCROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A CLEARING SKY AND DIMINISHED WIND...HENCE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE RIDGES...MID 30S ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY FREEZING TEMPS IN ELEVATED VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD FROST IS THUS ANTICIPATED AND A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO ACCOMPANY THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE I 80 COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEW MODELS TRENDING BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTH INTO NEW YORK STATE MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID MEMORIAL DAY IS IN STORE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WEAK CROSSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A LATE WEEK PASSAGE WITH BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP. USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN AFTERNOON INCREASE IN VFR ALTOCU...CU. MAINTAINED A TEMPO OR VICINITY SHOWER MENTION IN THE TAFS. NEVERTHELESS...ONLY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A WIND VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ041. PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ013-014-020>023-029-073>076. WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-041. && $$ 15

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