Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290059 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 859 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the weekend. High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Storms with heavy rainfall are continuing in eastern Fayette/Westmoreland Counties, as well as along a persistent outflow boundary from earlier convection moving across the central portion of the county warning area. Have extended PoPs a little longer into the evening, but still expect most activity to die down by midnight with the loss of heating. Minor changes to rest of forecast. Previous discussion for tomorrow... Increased moisture in southerly flow along with a crossing shortwave will result in better thunderstorm coverage beginning Sunday afternoon and tapering off overnight after the passage of the trough. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather for Memorial Day and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for dry weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF are coming in better agreement that an upper level trough and associated cold front will approach the region late Thursday into Friday and have bumped up pops slightly. However, the ECMWF is more progressive with pushing precipitation to the east by late Friday, while the GFS and GEFS continue the chance of showers in Saturday. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend toward the seasonal average by the weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected for most ports through the operational TAF period as a ridge of high pressure remains in place. A few lingering showers this evening will dwindle with the setting sun. Light surface flow and no change in air mass will mean similar conditions overnight as 24 hours ago. Not expecting fog to develop...save for the few locations where rain managed to fall over the airfield...KLBE and KFKL. Have mentioned MVFR visibility restrictions for these two locations. Thunderstorm coverage should increase Sunday afternoon with a passing shortwave trough...so carrying VCTS in most TAFs. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front will approach the region late Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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