Area Forecast Discussion
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734 FXUS61 KPBZ 270125 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 925 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain is expected tonight and again Monday night and Tuesday as areas of low pressure cross the region. Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected by mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Low pressure centered over srn Lake Michigan is progged to track to Southern Ontario by morning. Continued shortwave support in advance of the low should continue to result in areas of showers crossing the region. Removed remaining mention of thunder as instability has diminished. The low`s associated occluded front is progged for a light night/early morning passage, with decreasing shower chances thereafter. Shortwave ridging should return dry weather to the area by late morning. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... By Monday evening showers along with another low pressure system will begin to move in from the west, and another round of showers is forecast late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Showers will linger into Tuesday afternoon before high pressure brings cooler and drier air for Tuesday night and Wednesday. While the first 24 hours of the period will remain mild, values Tuesday night and Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than the previous day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A sprawling low pressure system will spread rain across much of the eastern United States. The ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement than they were 24 hours ago, showing showers moving into the region Thursday night, continuing into Friday and Friday night. A stray shower could remain into Saturday before dry weather returns Saturday night and Sunday. Seasonable temperatures are expected through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper level low pressure will cross tonight into tomorrow spreading showers to the region. Overall confidence is medium to high with greatest uncertainty in how low visibility will go in a heavier shower. Would not be surprised to see brief IFR. However for the sake of the TAF, did not include that since it would last less than 30 minutes. The initial round will move through by 2z then another will traverse between 3Z- 10Z. Cigs will drop to MVFR during the overnight hours, but will climb back to low end VFR Monday afternoon. Most of Monday will be dry however pockets of mid level instability will produce scattered showers, but coverage is too low for TAF inclusion. Gusty SE winds at FKL and DUJ will slacken toward 4Z when the flow veers to the south. Otherwise a turn to the southwest will be common over the next six hours. Outlook... Restrictions are likely again Mon night/Tue with a crossing cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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