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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 091850
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY SPAWN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL A POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE NEAR TERM WARMING TREND WL BE INTERRUPTED BY A SERIES OF
CROSSING SHRTWVS WHICH WL GENERATE PERIODIC INCRS IN CLD
COVER...AND POSSIBLY SOME LGT SHWRS ON MONDAY. SLGT...TO MINIMAL
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THAT SCENARIO.

AT ANY RATE...EARLY WEEK WEA WL BE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AS GENL WARM
ADVCTN IN ADVN OF EWD PROGRESSING AND DEEPENING NRN STREAM TROUGH
FUELS A TEMP RECOVERY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS FOR ALL BUT THE NRN
MOST LOCALES...WHICH WL NEVERTHELESS BE WARMED TO NR THE NORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PRIMARY WEA CONCERN FOR THE NXT CPL OF DAYS WL BE THE ADVN OF LOW
PRES ALNG A SWD SAGGING FRONTAL BNDRY...TIMED FOR A WEDNESDAY
PASSAGE ACRS THE REGION. MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK...BUT
DIFFER SLGTLY ON TIMING WITH GFS TRANSLATING QUICKER TO THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE IS THUS IMPROVING ON THAT LOW SPREADING RAIN...AND SOME
SNOW OVR THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NGT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE BTR CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR AND WL LIKELY BE WITH THE INITIAL WARM SURGE ON THE
ADVN FLANK...AND IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE REVERSE FLANK OF
THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND
FIELD STRUCTURE AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS PROGGED BY GFS...ECMWF...AND
NAM...PRIMARY AND SUSTAINED MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE
WL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...HENCE INITIAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST WL
BE IN THE ADVISORY OR LESS CATEGORY.

OTHERWISE...THE LOW PRES TRACK AND STRONG WARM ADVCTN ARE EXPECTED
TO SPPRT A POSSIBLE BRIEF MIX...THEN RAIN WITH INCRG WIND SPEED AS
THE SFC LOW PASSES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATER THAT NIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS CANADA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH FOR THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAKE QUITE A TUMBLE BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY STORM...WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE HIGH TEENS TO THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDS EXPD THRU TNGT UNDER HIGH PRES RIDGING. A WK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A BRIEF RAIN OR SNW SHWR ERLY MON THOUGH VFR CONDS ARE
EXPD TO CONT THRU THE DAY...WITH GUSTY SW WNDS DVLPG.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD RSTRNS ARE EXPD TUE NGT INTO WED EVE AS LOW PRES TRACKS
ACRS THE UPR OH VLY RGN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BREEZY COMBINATION OF WARMTH WITH INCRSG
DEWPOINTS FOLLOWED BY RAIN WL ELIMINATE ANY RMNG SNOW IN THE
RIDGES. WITH THE QPF OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF
THREE QUARTERS...TO AN INCH...FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE
LOCAL...HOWEVER...RIDGE ZONE CREEKS AND THE MONONGAHELA RIVER
BASINS WL HAVE TO MONITORED AS THE RMNG WATER EQUIVALENT IS
ACTIVATED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07