Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 041347 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND ERODE THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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