Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280808 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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