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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261303
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
803 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST DAWN UPDATE FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEA TRENDS.

AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...DEFORMATION ZONE WL CONT TO
SPPRT SNOW ACRS THE REGION. ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL FORECAST STILL
LKS GOOD...HENCE NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THOUGH AS LOW PRES DVLPS TWD
THE COAST AND ENHANCES COLD ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE RIDGES TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A MIXED
BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP I-70 SOUTH AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE WRN FLANK OF OF EWD DVLPG LOW PRES WL
CONT TO PLAGUE UPR OH TERMINALS WITH SNOW AND IFR DEGRADATION. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020-
     021-029.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ001>003.

&&

$$

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