Area Forecast Discussion
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965 FXUS61 KPBZ 281905 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 305 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of disturbances will keep showers in the forecast through the weekend with humid conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers and a few thunderstorms moving northeast across much of the region as first shortwave exits while additional storms have formed along outflow boundaries especially north of Interstate 80. Second shortwave moving across West Virginia is firing a second round of showers and storms...which will mostly move across areas south and east of Pittsburgh early tonight. Still a small threat of flood problems this evening south of the Mason Dixon line in the higher elevations, otherwise meso-scale models agree severe threat or flood threat will be south and east of the ridges, where watches have been issued. As this evenings shortwave moves east, expect a slow decrease in showers through the night. No real change in airmass with humid conditions keeping overnight lows elevated. Another humid day Friday with scattered showers and storms as weak impulses move through a developing eastern mid level trough. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and Saturday, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. By Sunday trough is forecast to sharpen enough to push deep moisture east of the ridges by evening, with diminishing shower chances late day. Continued humid with near seasonal daytime temperatures, with lows somewhat above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Appears to be enough low level moisture for low chance pops in the ridges Monday, otherwsie a weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A frontal boundary may get close enough for chance POPs on Thursday. A modified Superblend was used for the extended period. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A medium confidence forecast with cigs and vis timing generally following consensus short range model. Another slug of rain will move through during the afternoon hours affecting all terminals save for FKL and DUJ where they will reside far enough north and miss out on MVFR/IFR weather. Prevailing showers were ended west /21z/ to e /03z/ before IFR stratus and fog develops late evening. It is still a tough call on how low vis and cigs drop overnight. For now rolled with IFR at most airports save for DUJ. Lowest confidence of occurrence is at FKL since they won`t receive measurable rainfall during the day light hours. Morning fog and stratus will erode around 14z owing to VFR weather. Any diurnal showers should pop up after the last six hours of the forecast was kept dry. The only time window for thunder appears to be in the 21-01z window as a short wave trough rides northeast along the Ohio river. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Brief sub VFR restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms through Monday, however given duration and coverage nothing more than a CB or VCTS/ VCSH expected at this time. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.