Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301214 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 814 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE REGION. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 80 WHERE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS LOCATED. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST GFS MOS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN. GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST. WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE FEATURED EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FKL/DUJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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