Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191816 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 216 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WARMING TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF ON THE SW QUADRANT BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY COLDFRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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