Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 302324 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 724 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... MINOR TWEAK TO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE THE ONLY CHANGES FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS MAY SINK A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST AS NOTED BELOW. WILL BE EVALUATING THAT DURING THE EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5 DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH MVFR AND BR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ZZV..FKL..AND DUJ. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED CU. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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