Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220907 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 407 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic rain chances will continue through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A series of shortwaves will move through the area today in the strong southwest flow aloft. This will bring another round of widespread rain to the region, most of which will fall during the morning and early afternoon hours. This wave will pull warmer air northward this morning. This will allow locations close to or at freezing to warm, eliminating the freezing rain/snow potential by mid to late morning. More seasonal temperatures are expected today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... After a brief dry spell tonight, rain will move back in from the southwest on Friday, as the next upper level wave crosses the region, and a surface warm front stretches across the area. This boundary will be the focus of the rainfall through Friday, as models are showing a well defined area of low-level moisture convergence along the front. The aforementioned large scale ascent will assist in increasing rainfall intensity late Friday morning through the afternoon hours. Rain is expected to dissipate Friday evening and into the overnight hours, as another shortwave trough will drive the stalled boundary southeastward. This will allow for a brief reprieve Friday night before another round of upper level waves brings more rain to the region on Saturday. There will be hydrologic concerns through the entire period. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, well above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure will move across the western Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday and sweep a cold front across the Ohio Valley, providing some definitive clearing for the local area. This should allow for a dry forecast from Sunday night through Wednesday. One more day of temperatures in the 60s can be expected on Sunday, before temperatures fall to slightly above normal values for the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Rain and deterioration to MVFR and eventual IFR is expected. Sfc temperatures are expected to drop below freezing N of I 80, where freezing rain is expected. FZRA should change back to rain with warming temperatures by this aftn. The rain should taper off from W-E during the aftn, with some limited improvement to low MVFR possible late. OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with a series of crossing low pressure areas. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. OH...Flood Watch until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Flood Watch until 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ014-016- 020>023-029-031-073>076. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ007>009-015-016. WV...Flood Watch until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ001>004-012.
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