Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151005 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 605 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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PREDAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS AND TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS...ALBEIT FOR GRASSY AREAS...AS COLDER AIR APPEARS TO BE INVADING WRN ZONES FASTER THAN PREVIOUS PROG. PREVIOUS.... COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF MY AREA BY 12Z AND STRONG CAA WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL JET. LOOKING AT WHAT IS OCCURRING WESTWARD... RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST. COULD SEE SOME WHITENING OF GRASSY AREAS...BUT A WARM GROUND WILL HAMPER THIS. TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. USING OBS TO THE WEST...A DROP OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOOKS REASONABLE IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT SHOULD WRAP UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NORTH AND RIDGES ARE AT GREATEST RISK TO SEE AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS OVER THE RIDGES GIVE ME PAUSE AS THEY DECREASE QUICKLY AS EVENING APPROACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS INVERSIONS DROP...SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. WAA AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE... HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONDITION DETERIORATION AND A WIND VEER TO THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION THIS MRNG. WITH THE WIND VEER WL COME A RAPID INFLUX OF COLD AIR WHICH WL CHANGE ANY RAIN SHWRS TO SNOW. COLD ADVCTN OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN SNOW SHWR...AND MVFR STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY WED MRNG. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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