Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 260031 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
831 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
A weak disturbance may provide a few showers late tonight. A warm
and increasingly humid air mass arrives for tomorrow and remains
through the weekend, with rain chances each day.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --830pm update...No major changes from previous update. Just pushed
back pops a little later into the night. Refreshed temperatures
with the latest hires guidance.
A weak wave will slowly make its way across the area tonight and
Thursday. Precipitation chances were kept low overnight, owing to
an overall lack of moisture and lift. Dewpoints will be on the
increase tomorrow afternoon, which combining with slightly cooler
temperatures aloft, will create a more favorably unstable profile.
Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during this period.
Temperatures above seasonal levels are expected for tonight and
Thursday, with only minor changes to the previous forecast.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement
of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected
continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the
western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of
significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using
the latest model blend.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting
through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected
to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited
Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for
uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions overnight into thursday as only mid deck will be
across the region. An isolated shower is possible overnight but
not enough coverage to include in tafs. By mid afternoon thursday
increasing low level moisture and a weak shortwave looks to bring
isolated to scattered scattered thunderstorms. for now kept
previous vcts at all ports. Winds will be light southwest through
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH monday/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening scattered showers and
possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.