Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251826 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 226 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with a Monday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Dry high pressure will continue to suppress clouds and precip into Monday. A warming column/developing warm advection and encroaching early morning stratus from east of the ridges should offset initially efficient radiation tonight. Overnight lows were thus projected several degrees below most guidance, especially over eastern counties, but not quite as cold as last night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A deepening mid level trough is projected to close over the Northern Great Lakes on Monday as it drives a cold front across the Upper Ohio. Likely to categorical precip probabilities are forecast with this eventuality, while increasing deep layer shear may support possible severe thunderstorms. That potential will be dependant on timing, surface dewpoints, clouds, and resulting instability levels, magnitude of which does not look strong enough to initiate any alarms today. Showers are forecast to exit eastward with the front during the evening with dry and cooler conditions following on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the closed low is progged to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes, and increase clouds and shower chances for the immediate area. Temperature about 5 degrees under the rapidly falling averages was forecast using Superblend guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The latest deterministic trends are of a persistent cutoff low somewhere over the Mid Atlantic or Great Lakes States during the long term. Have opted for a NAEFS mean solution which is of troughing over the Upper Ohio, without the inconsistent magnitude of the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions. Long term POPs are thus in the slight, to low-end chance range, with a temperature prog which allows a recovery to, then a couple degrees above the seasonal averages by next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... General VFR is forecast through Monday morning with condition deterioration thereafter in response to precip with an approaching cold front. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for restricition is expected under deepening mid week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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