Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030759 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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