Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271842 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 242 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A LULL IN PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RETURNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...THOUGH NW PA INTO EASTERN OHIO COULD SEE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR IN PLACE THESE AREAS HAVE SOME CHANCE AT SEEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS...SO MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE... INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD RIGDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR INTO THE EVENING. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN OHIO TOWARD 00Z AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE WESTERN MOST PORTS AND WELL AS KFKL. WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION...SO VCSH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEHIND BOUNDARY EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN COOL ADVECTION AS WIND SHIFTS WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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