Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241142 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 642 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...A SHRTWV WL CONT TO ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG...EXITING BY THIS AFTN. SFC PRES FALLS CONT TO INCR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE INLAND SFC LOW WKNS AND COASTAL LOW PRES DVLPS. THIS WL CONT THE DCRG TREND IN SNW COVG AND INTENSITY ACRS THE RGN. SNW TOTALS GENLY RANGED FM 2-3 INCHES THRU MOST OF THE ADVY AND WRNG AREAS. WITH LTL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH ADVYS AND DOWNGRADE ANY WRNGS THRU ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS THE RIDGES E-SE OF PIT. MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD DURG THE AFTN. NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW IS EXPD TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH CHCS FOR SNW SHWRS. UPSLOPE SNWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW MOISTURE LYR AND LOW TEMP INVERSIONS. THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY... THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS. WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS. BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VARIABLE CIGS THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF LOW HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR KHLG-KPIT BUT IFR CIGS ACROSS OHIO WILL FILL BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING. IFR WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED. BY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE WILL RACE SOUTHEAST WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND CONTINUED MAINLY IFR CIGS. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO BRING IFR TO PORTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041. && $$

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