Area Forecast Discussion
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974 FXUS61 KPBZ 301636 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1236 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary will generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms over areas east and south of Pittsburgh this afternoon. Otherwise dry and seasonably warm weather can be expected into mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Changes for the early afternoon update included further adjustments to hourly trends of temperature, and of precipitation probability. A weak frontal boundary will slide across the Upper Ohio Region today and slight to chance precipitation probabilities were maintained for that passage. Although the front will usher in slightly lower dew points, the change in airmass is not decisive and near term temperatures are projected about 5 to 10 degrees above the averages using consensus/short guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Subsidence with that high is expected to maintain dry weather into Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again. Thereafter, general model agreement is of a mid level trough and associated cold front approaching late Wednesday night and crossing the region Thursday. Precipitation probabilities were gradually escalated for that occurrence and accompanied by an above average temperature forecast given the warm, moist advection in advance of that feature. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and temperatures at or below superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Building high pressure will ensure general VFR through the period. An isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon near LBE/MGW, although confidence was low enough to remove precipitation mention from those sites. In addition, peri-dawn fog will still remain a possibility at many terminals. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a cold front Thursday into Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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