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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151752
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO TREND POPS TOWARD CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE QUITE ELEVATED AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO REMAIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.


HIGHER WINDS STARTING TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT UNDER LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE HURON. COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AT 15Z. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN
BE REALIZED AHEAD OF FRONT. MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO BE WELL
OVERDONE WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE.
WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS AT KILN AND KPBZ SHOWING STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...EXPECT FRONT WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF FIRING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW CAP BREAKING. NO CHANGES TO POPS AS THERE
WILL BE FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR IN LINE ALTHOUGH
FRONT MAY BE MOVING SOUTHEAST A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED
AND COULD CUT OFF WARM ADVECTION SOMEWHAT EXCEPT IN THE AWAY FROM
THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE THUS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD...ALBEIT
WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS INDICATED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN
CLOSER TO NEW GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AGAIN
FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY ON THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70 AT KMGW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST AND NORTHWEST 22Z THROUGH 01Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$