Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 040521 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 121 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... MINOR OVERNIGHT CHANGES AS ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ON RADAR SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH. MID DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST FROM EASTERN OHIO TOWARD THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF 30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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