Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150218 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 918 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Wintry mix will end this evening followed by high pressure for Sunday. Warm weather will return next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 915pm update...cancelled remaining advisory except over Garrett, MD. Main area of precipitation has moved east, however still plenty of low level moisture left over the southern third, which is causing fog in many locations, some of it dense. The lowest visibilities are over the higher elevations where they are actually in the cloud deck. Still remain concerned about freezing drizzle in the ridges, but drier air is slowly sinking to the south. This will need to monitored overnight. Previous discussion... Once the shortwave shifts east, the remaining precipitation should shift to a rain/snow mix. Some icing may still be possible in a few spots where temperatures hover near freezing, but overall concerns for further impact is low. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridge of high pressure will remain in control on sunday, with near average temperature expected under zonal flow. A deeper trough is progged to develop over the plains for the start of the new week. As this occurs, warm advection will resume. A warm front lifting across the region on Monday may pose additional freezing rain concerns early across points south of I-70, but with a slightly slower onset of precipitation that the last set of model runs, it appears the threat would be brief, if at all. Thus, will similar reasoning as the previous shift, will hold off on an HWO mention. A return of warm, moist air through Tuesday, ahead of the cold front, will support likely to categorical PoPs across the region based on the latest blend of guidance. Temperature will also trend above average with values almost 20 degrees above normal Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Quick cooldown is expected on Wednesday with northwest flow rain and snow showers possible before we warm up once again through the end of the week. Used the superblend to construct most of this forecast with only minor adjustments in the latter half of the period based on the deviation in guidance values. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Precipitation will pull east of the area this evening as a shortwave exits. IFR/MVFR conditions in low ceilings and patchy fog will linger before improvement after midnight. High pressure provides VFR conditions and light winds late tonight through Sunday. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are possible S of PIT Sunday night with a crossing warm front, and likely areawide Tue/Wed with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR MDZ001. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.