Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270009 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 809 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will bring rain to the region tonight and Thursday. Dry and cool weather returns for Friday. Warmer but unsettled weather is anticipated for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Pre-frontal precipitation of rain with a mixture of light sleet has shifted to the northeast. Therefore, have updated late evening PoPs based on radar and latest HRRR trends for the late evening update. Previous discussion follows. PoPs are forecast to progressively increase overnight as an approaching low pressure system strengthens resulting from a deepening upper trough shifting across the Great Lakes. On Thursday, categorical PoPs are placed over the north where sufficient lift and moisture are expected to reside. The frontal passage is slated for Thursday afternoon and thereafter sweep away the rain to the east. Lingering precipitation over the higher terrain is then expected due to cool northwest flow. Temperatures will be slightly above normal through the period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold advection behind the departing low pressure will be brief, but shower chances should continue through Thursday night. Some snow may mix in as well, especially north of I-80 and in the high terrain. High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley for Friday with lingering cloud cover to likely hold temperatures down a little. With the progressive upper level pattern, another system is expected to approach late on Saturday with chances for showers increasing by the afternoon. Warm advection ahead of this system should allow for temperatures 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The models are in relatively good agreement for the start of the long term, with another shortwave expected to cross along a slow moving boundary over the Ohio Valley on Sunday. After this time, the models evolve the next low pressure system over the northern Plain/Canadian border differently, so a blend of model guidance was used. Overall, expect temperatures to remain at or just slightly above seasonal averages through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Conditions are expected to remain VFR into the evening hours with high-based ceilings and spotty light precipitation. Pockets of sleet are possible at the terminals this afternoon. ESE winds will strengthen with time as a low pressure system approaches. Ceilings will fall with time, with MVFR conditions developing by morning at most locations. Areas north of Pittsburgh will likely see IFR by sunrise as the steadiest precipitation moves in. These restrictions will persist through the end of the TAF. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Restrictions may continue into Thursday evening, before VFR returns by Friday. More restrictions are possible this weekend with another front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.