Area Forecast Discussion
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060 FXUS61 KPBZ 241028 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 628 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front is bringing lower temperatures back to the area. A mostly dry forecast is maintained through midweek, before a system returns rain chances area wide. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Made small adjustments to cloud cover and POPs as a cold front completes it`s passage this morning. Strong northwest flow behind the front will quickly advect cooler air in from the north. As a result, temperatures will should follow somewhat of a non- diurnal trend today with many locations already seeing their high temperatures achieved. With cooler air pouring over the warm waters of Lake Erie, limited production of lake-enhanced showers is expected into the afternoon. Thus, chance PoPs were maintained, primarily north of I-80. Temperatures tonight will be back to below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Building surface high pressure will return dry weather to the area through Wednesday. An upper-level trough will dig into the western Great Lakes early Wednesday, strengthening the surface low as it approaches from the west. Modest isentropic ascent across the warm front will lead to a gradual increase in clouds by Wednesday morning. Several models generate qpf with this feature as it pushes north of the area Wednesday night. Model soundings reveal deeper moisture resides aloft, with a low-level dry layer. This dry layer, along with a slower evolution of the parent low, should delay onset of precipitation. Continuing to hold off PoPs until the surface low nears Wednesday night. Likely PoPs have been maintained for Thursday as the deepening low tracks just to our north. A strengthening of the low-level jet should increase rain efficiency Thursday. This is noted in fairly high qpf amounts seen across model guidance, especially the 00z GFS. For the time being, have stayed at or just below WPC qpf guidance. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Brief ridging will dry out the forecast Friday, but another trough will already be approaching from the west. Unsettled weather and cooler than seasonal average temperatures will hold for the weekend until the western CONUS ridge begins to break down early next week. In general, followed close to the Superblend guidance for construction of the extended period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MVFR to low VFR conditions are expected behind a cold front as it exits the area early this morning. Stratocu is expected to persist today in cold NW flow and upper troughing, though mixing with gusty NW winds should lift cloud bases to VFR this afternoon for most ports. A few lake enhanced showers are possible N of I 80, so included a VCSH mention for this potential. Partial clearing is expected south of I 80 tonight as high pressure builds in. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for general restrictions will be with Thursday low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.