Area Forecast Discussion
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035 FXUS61 KPBZ 251803 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 203 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak disturbance may provide a few showers tonight. A warm and increasingly humid air mass arrives for Wednesday and remains through the weekend, with rain chances each day.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The cap continues to hold across most of the area this afternoon, as evidenced by the overall lack of cumulus. The current exception is in areas from near ZZV on west, closer to a weak midlevel wave, where a band of showers has managed to form. That weak wave will make its way slowly across the area into Thursday. Precipitation chances were kept low tonight into Thursday morning owing to an overall lack of moisture and support for lift. Dewpoints will be on the increase by midday and into the afternoon however. This will combine with slightly cooler temperatures aloft to crate a more favorably unstable profile. Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during this period. Temperatures above seasonal levels are expected for tonight and Thursday, with only minor changes to the previous forecast. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using the latest model blend.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model differences.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible across southeast Ohio, but any restriction would be very brief. A slightly more organized threat of rain will occur later tonight and into Thursday morning as a weak disturbance moves across, but chances remain too low to include restrictions in TAFs. Towards the end of the TAF period on Thursday, a bit more numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in an increasingly unstable airmass. It is still too early to pin down location and timing, but restrictions will be more possible by then. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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