Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150146 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 946 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MINOR CHGS TO LT EVE FCST BASED ON LATEST UPR AIR/MESO/NR TERM MDL DATA. A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PCPN WL CONT ERLY TNGT. THE NXT SHRTWV ACRS THE OH/TN VLY WL MOVE ACRS THE RGN AFT MDNGT WITH WDSPRD SHWRS RTNG. A CDFNT IS ALSO EXPD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE AREA TNGT INTO ERLY TUE MRNG. MDLS PROGS ALSO SHOW A SFC WAVE DVLPG ALG THE FNT BY TUE MRNG IN RESPONSE TO AN APRCHG UPR TROF...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FNT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN SHWRS SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO SNW SHWRS FM W-E THRU THE DAY...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE EXITING BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. WITH A WRM GROUND NO SGFNT ACCUMS EXPD. COLD AIR ADVCTN SHOULD RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO ARND -10 DEG C BY TUE EVE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANTLY LOW MODEL SPREAD FOR WEDS MORNING...SO BASICALLY JUST TWEAKED TEMPS HERE AND THERE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 06Z WEDS TO CREATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN OUR SE RIDGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION... HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH COULD ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES. MID-WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL RISK OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OH WILL SLOW THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY. GENERAL VFR WILL DETERIORATE OVER NIGHT TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS EAST FRONT WILL ACCELERATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FOR A TIME BEFORE ENDING. EXPECT IFR NOW FOR A TIME AT KFKL AND KDUJ BEFORE DRIER AIR LIFTS CIGS AND VSBY ALL PORTS MIDDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 18-24Z. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERAL VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 07/10

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