Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250025 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 725 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... QUICK 730PM UPDATE TO END THE WIND ADVISORY. ALL SITES HAVE BEEN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR TWO HOURS...AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO RAMP UP AGAIN. WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING. FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT. TAX && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT. WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO THE AFTN. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .CLIMATE... THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041. && $$

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