Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290155 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 955 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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