Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 212220 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 620 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.