Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220110 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 910 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide cooler and much less humid conditions through the first half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A mid-level trough axis will push through tonight as a surface cold front moves well east. Northwest flow over the Great Lakes, and modest cold advection, is producing scattered showers moving off the shore of Lake Erie into northwest PA and northeast Ohio. Have adjusted POPs only slightly for a bit faster arrival, still mainly north of I-80. These showers should end by sunrise. Expect plenty of sunshine Monday with high pressure in control. Temperatures look to be about 5 degrees below the seasonal average, along with much lower dew points.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Nearly zonal flow in the mid levels will transition to ridging, with the 500 mb ridge axis passing through early Wednesday. Surface high pressure will remain in control, keeping the weather dry. Little in the way of cloud cover is expected through Tuesday night, with some high clouds increasing Wednesday behind the ridge. Temperatures will be close to climatology on Tuesday, and then rise a few degrees above on Wednesday. Dewpoints will also start to increase at the end of the period as low level flow turns southwest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main weather maker this period is a cold front currently expected to cross on Friday. Humidity will continue to increase ahead of it, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning for Thursday and Thursday night. The situation may be similar to the front which just crossed our region, since the main shortwave will likely remain off to the north like this past system. Dry weather returns Friday night and continues through the weekend with the return of high pressure. Temperatures will remain near or just above seasonal levels through the period. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR is expected tonight for most ports, though a crossing upper trough is should bring stratocu ceilings overnight from PIT north. Areas north of I 80 have the best chance at seeing MVFR ceilings in NW flow. CU rule indicates a diurnal CU layer for Monday with possible MVFR ceiling heights in the morning, though mixing and building high pressure should return VFR conditions to the area by afternoon. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restriction potential returns with the approach and passage of a cold front Thursday and Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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