Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300601 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 201 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z. THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5 JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500 HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE WARMTH. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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