Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021615 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WITH 1215PM UPDATE...CONTINUED TO UPDATE HOURLY SKY GRIDS FOR EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. OTHER UPDATE WAS FOR PRECIPITATION GRIDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY MADE SOME CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL...ALTHOUGH THAT FORECAST WILL BE FURTHER TWEAKED THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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