Area Forecast Discussion
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870 FXUS61 KPBZ 231332 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 932 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal temperatures, but unsettled weather will start to return on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A cirrus shield well out ahead of a system riding up the Middle Atlantic will continue to push northeastward through much of the day. Satellite depictions of this field look far more impressive than it likely is as model time-height sections reveal a fairly narrow window of saturation aloft. Thus, it seems reasonable to expect a fairly translucent high cloud shield across the majority of the area through the day. In general, a partly sunny forecast was thus featured, except in the ridges and points nearby where clouds may be a bit thicker. Deep moisture associated with the system moving up the coast really never looks to make retrogressive progress into the CWA on Tuesday. The upper jet axis likewise would not favor it doing so as it aligns generally in line with the Laurel Highlands. Thus, any rain showers seem unlikely to make it west of maybe Tucker/Garrett County on today and tonight. High clouds will be around in the rest of the CWA, however overall dry weather will continue. Fries && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally dry conditions will continue to prevail through the overnight and into Wednesday morning as the first system along the Middle Atlantic tracks farther from the area. Beyond that time, the upper level pattern looks to evolve very slowly with general pattern amplification being key to the eventual shifting of the pattern by the second half of the week. Model solutions have had substantial difficulty over the past few days managing the depiction of the digging and deepening of the mid/upper lower from the upper Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley. However, the 00z cycle tonight has favored a timing of deeper moisture into the area generally around Wednesday afternoon across much of the area. This will allow for an unusual temperature spread with the warmest readings northeast and coldest southwest on Wednesday. However, while forcing with the incoming system is impressive, instability is not. Thus, while moderate rainfall amounts will be possible, thunder chances remain rather subdued. The upper low takes its sweet time migrating across the area from Wednesday night into Friday. This will bring a decent chunk of 500 mb cold air over the CWA. As such a lowering of convective temperatures will mean abundant clouds and shower chances remaining across the CWA through the remainder of the work week. Temperatures meanwhile will be below normal. Fries && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... While the slow-moving upper low will have moved northeast of the area by Friday night, and upper ridging will be briefly holding sway over the area, the interlude of quiescent conditions will be relatively short. The mid-level ridge axis looks to quickly kick east of the area on the consensus with deeper southwesterly flow aloft returning for the weekend. This will bring Gulf moisture toward the area again, resulting in increasing temperatures and humidity as it occurs. Shower chances will increase through the weekend as deep moisture encroaches, however warmer temperatures should prevail at least until early next week as the highly amplified pattern continues to persist, and the next sprawling upper low looks to take until at least Tuesday to arrive in our area. Fries && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period under low level ridging as mid/high clouds increase on the nrn side of a surface low tracking toward the Mid Atlantic region. Winds will remain light and from the east-southeast through the period. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely late Wed thru Thu, and are possible Thu night thru Sat, with crossing low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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