Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 110941 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 541 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE TODAY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. MID JULY SUN WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE CLOUDS THERE AND POSSIBLY A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DIFFERENT STORY FOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE WAVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FOCUSING ON A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN WAVE IS LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AS THIS WAVE FORCES IT WAY INTO THE RIDGE IT WASTES MUCH OF ITS ENERGY. THE STRONGER WAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW. THIS SCENARIO WILL SLOW THE ONSET OF POPS SAT NIGHT AND PUSH THE MORE LIKELY TIME FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. UNTIL MODELS FIND A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY... FORECAST WILL BE ON THE LOW CONFIDENCE SIDE. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVES WILL BE THE CRUCIAL ELEMENT FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD BE A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES. HOWEVER...MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL BE IMPORTANT...POSSIBLY HOLDING TEMPS DOWN BELOW CONVECTIVE LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL CONT AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE RGN AHD OF A SLOW MOVG CDFNT. THE FNT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA TUE. SFC HIGH PRES WL THEN BLD IN THRU THU UNDER A GT LKS UPR TROF WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDS. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO PORTS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO FAIR WEATHER CU WITH BASES BETWEEN 6-7KFT. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOCAL RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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