Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290057 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 857 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorm chances will continue through the evening as a weak boundary crosses the region. Warm but less humid conditions will be introduced under building high pressure through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Line of storms and heavy rain continues to slowly drift to the south and east. Needed to make major changes to the evening hours in line with the latest radar trends and hires model guidance. Expect the activity to be gone later tonight. Temperatures have been updated with a blend of hires guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Newest model guidance pushes the aforementioned boundary south of the region by Monday afternoon as reinforcing shortwaves help deepen a trough over the Northeast U.S. through midweek. The surface front may continue to provide focus for diurnally- enhanced convection over the mountains in WV, but building surface high under northwest flow should suppress precip by Tuesday. A second and more notable boundary, as far as temperatures change, will approach on Wednesday. At this time, it appears that instability and moisture will be rather meager with this fronts passage so very low pops were kept, based on a blend of guidance and timing differences through Wednesday. Temperatures should moderate to near normal with northwest flow/cool advection by Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Troughing over the eastern CONUS will result in cooler temperatures the remainder of the week before ridging builds back in this weekend. Dry conditions are forecast under dry northwesterly flow and ridging later in the period. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms are firing along and ahead of a weak cold front which is sinking south through the area. A highly unstable airmass is in place in front of it, and numerous outflow boundaries are also providing support for upward motion. The result is many slow-moving and heavy thunderstorms. Have IFR TEMPOS at several sites to account for this. These will plague most terminals through 03Z or so, before the loss of daytime heating helps to decrease coverage and intensity significantly. Areas of MVFR/IFR fog are then expected to develop overnight, especially in areas that received rain. Fog will lift by 13Z on Monday, with VFR conditions expected by midday areawide. Still could see an isolated storm in the MGW area Monday afternoon, but too early to include. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are possible with another cold front on Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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