Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221537 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1137 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and unsettled weather today with a crossing upper level disturbance. Dry weather should return Sunday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Adjusted afternoon POPs based on a bit slower exit to the northeast. Winds also brought down somewhat from previous expectations. Remainder unchanged. Lake enhanced bands of showers will continue to shift north and east as the flow progresses through the afternoon. Cold advection will continue through the morning, with a few snow showers mixed in for the higher ridges and I-80 corridor into late morning. As flow turns anticyclonic tonight showers will end, with warm advection actually beginning after midnight as low pressure exits toward New England. Winds will be gusty to over 40 MPH in the ridges into this evening, then diminish overnight. Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday will begin dry as high pressure tracks well to our south. Deamplifying flow aloft and gusty southwest winds will allow clouds to decrease and push afternoon temperatures back up to climatology. Clouds will begin to increase again late in the day ahead of a quick-moving surface low/midlevel shortwave dropping across the Great Lakes. The best chance for showers late Sunday and Sunday night will lie north of Pittsburgh where the best low-level convergence will be seen, with some isolated activity possible along the ridges. The low will drag a front across Sunday night, which will bring temperatures back to below normal. Monday will feature lingering clouds in northwest flow, most numerous across the north, where a few isolated showers may continue. Skies should begin to clear Monday night as surface high pressure and upper ridging return. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Continued ridging aloft will maintain dry weather into Wednesday.A digging trough will cross the Mississippi River and begin to impact our region during the late week period, with our next decent chance of rain. The models differ on the fate of this trough at the end of next week, lending much uncertainty to precipitation chances and amounts. Temperatures will be near or just a bit below climatology through the period. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR to low VFR conditions are expected through much of today with an upper low in close proximity and with cool northwest flow. The stratocu layer should lift to VFR for much of the area through the afternoon as mixing lifts the cloud bases, though areas north of I 80 should remain MVFR until evening. Lake enhanced showers should also persist through much of the day. A tight pressure gradient should result in W-NW winds gusting to 25kt at times. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.