Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261004 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 604 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor adjustments were needed to hourly trends for the dawn update. Previous... A weak shortwave is progged to cross the region today. Scattered showers are expected with its approach and passage, with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon as instability increases with daytime heating. Temperatures are expected to reach 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal levels. The near term forecast was adjusted using the latest near term model guidance and observations. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The weak shortwave should exit the region by this evening, ending any shower and thunderstorm chances. Eastern CONUS ridging is then expected to persist through the weekend. Increasing moisture and instability in southwest flow on the western periphery of the ridge should result in daily, mainly diurnal, shower and thunderstorm chances. The local area is in closest proximity to the ridge Friday, which should result in the lowest POPs in the short term period. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels are expected through the period using GFS MOS and consensus blend guidance. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... General VFR conditions are expected to continue into Friday, and look to be marred by only scattered convection supported by a weak disturbance today, and another on Friday. The ongoing "vicinity shower/thunderstorm" mention will thus be maintained, but with tweaks using the latest high resolution model runs with GFS and NAM consensus/persistence. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiday weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15/07

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