Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 080542 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1242 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will result in a return to cold temperatures and periodic snow showers through the end of the week. More widespread precipitation is likely Sunday with crossing low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Minimal change to going forecast for the rest of the night...as mainly mid and upper clouds accompany a mid level shortwave as it approaches. No precipitation expected through sunrise as lower levels remain quite dry. Minor changes made to low temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper troughing extending from the Canadian upper low, and cold advection, should persist across the Eastern CONUS through Friday. The boundary layer flow is progged to remain WSW Thursday, keeping any lake enhanced snow showers mainly north of the forecast area. A weak surface trough is expected to cross the area Thursday night and Friday morning, resulting in veering boundary layer winds to the WNW, a brief increase in moisture, heightening of the inversion levels, and re enforcing cold advection. This should result in the best potential for snow showers across much of the area. Some lake enhancement is expected especially for areas north of I 80, where the best potential exists to see a few inches of snow. Will maintain the HWO mention for this potential where an advisory may eventually be needed. While snow showers are likely in the ridges, the flow is not optimal for significant accumulations. Building high pressure and backing winds should bring an end to the snow showers Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures should average around 10 degrees below seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A midwestern trough and associated surface low is progged for approach and passage Sunday and Sunday night, with a period of snow likely. Persistent upper troughing across the Northeast CONUS should maintain periodic snow shower chances and colder than average temperatures for the rest of the long term period. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the night with just mid and high clouds. Lower clouds will encroach from the northwest tomorrow as a cold front crosses. Kept ceilings VFR for now but will reevaluate for possible MVFR ceilings tomorrow afternoon and evening. West winds will be around 10 knots or less through mid- morning, before increasing and gusting to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon and evening behind the cold front. .OUTLOOK... Scattered restrictions in snow showers are expected into Saturday. The next chance for widespread IFR will be with snow Sunday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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