Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221313 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 813 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... There will be a slight chance of light showers through the morning as a weak disturbance crosses the area. Warm weather is expected to continue until the passage of a late Friday night and Saturday morning cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Made adjustments to PoPs based on current radar and hi-res model trends. This led to an increase across the north where a cluster of showers was moving across northern Ohio. Minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint otherwise. Showers should mostly dissipate during the afternoon with dry weather anticipated thereafter through most of tonight. A few showers may pop up again across the south towards morning in increasing isentropic lift. Overall temperatures will be similar to recent days despite starting off with warmer lows with increased cloud coverage and slightly cooler temperatures aloft. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The longwave pattern will become more amplified through the period with a surface low over the plains tracking northeast across the great lakes. On Thursday warm air and moisture advection will increase as troughing over the central CONUS deepens. There will be a chance of showers and possibly a storm or two with ample synoptic lift, however, did not include in the forecast with a very slim CAPE profile and a better chance that activity remains capped off by warmer air aloft. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees or so warmer on average with increased warm air advection. Latest consensus in for the warm front to lift north across the region Friday morning. Friday should largely be dry most of the day in the warm sector and precipitation focused along and north of the boundary. Latest guidance remains consistent with previous runs in forecast record temperatures across the region. Minimal change was need to the temperature forecast through the period...with only minor adjustments made based off latest bias-corrected guidance. Friday night temperatures will be very mild with cloud coverage and increasing winds ahead of the approaching front keep in the lower levels mixed. Record high mins are currently forecast. Latest timing for cold frontal passage is Saturday morning. Expect areawide rain and possibly a few thunderstorms as well with gusty winds being the primary concern in the high shear low cape environment. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Broad troughing will be replaced by broad ridging by the end of the period as a shortwave digs over the western CONUS. During this time, several waves, moving through the upper level pattern are progged for passage across the Ohio Valley. However, timing and placement differs among the deterministic guidance. Thus, have leaned heavily on the Superblend, which trends both PoPs and temperatures upward from Sunday through Tuesday. At this time, it appears temperatures will start near seasonal averages and end above normal by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weakening cold front should result in lowering, but still VFR, ceilings through the night as it crosses the area. A few showers are possible but upper support is limited. Some upstream observations suggest that enough low level moisture could move in behind the dissipating front this morning leading to MVFR ceilings from ZZV to FKL to DUJ. Elsewhere VFR looks like it should prevail until late in this forecast period. Light w-sw wind will continue through the period. .OUTLOOK... Warm, moist conditions may support occasional restrictions Wednesday night through Thursday but the next chance for widespread restrictions will be with the passage of a Friday night/early Saturday cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for climate sites: Wed Thu Fri --------- -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922,30) 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 67 (1992) 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 70 (1980) 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 60 (1983) 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 57 (1949) 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 73 (1997) 69 (1975) 66 (1985) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.