Area Forecast Discussion
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957 FXUS61 KPBZ 170535 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1235 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the area bringing rain tonight and Tuesday. A crossing cold front will keep shower chances through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A warm front is progged to lift north across the region tonight through Tuesday as low pressure tracks from the Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes. Periods of rain are expected with the associated ascent and available moisture. Temperatures should slowly rise overnight in the warm advection, with highs around 20 degrees above seasonal levels today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Shower chances should continue tonight and Wednesday as the surface low`s associated cold front passes, and subsequent upper troughing crosses the area. Temperatures should cool behind the front, but are still expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Eastern CONUS ridge will give dry and mild conditions Thursday. Deterministic models differ on strong shortwave moving toward the Ohio valley for Friday, as well as a deepening full latitude mid level trough moving east toward the weekend. A modified model blend was used from Friday onward to smooth POPs and temperatures and for surrounding office coordination. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Remaining ports with MVFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR conditions or worse overnight through Tuesday, as an area of low pressure spreads rain and lowers ceilings across all terminals. A period of LLWS is expected as a low level jet works across the region above a weak inversion. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. Thereafter, expect general VFR through early Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.