Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 082123 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 523 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AT THIS POINT...THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CANCELLATION OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AS WELL AS A SECONDARY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THAT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SURELY DECREASE IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RETAINED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS TO ALLOW FOR A VERY SLOW WIND DOWN OF THE ACTIVITY. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REGAIN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS WITH DRYING EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS THURS AND FRI COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC HIGH GETS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE AREA SAT AS A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DRY FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHES FOR SUN. MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CONVERGING ON A SINGLE SOLN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THEY DO DEPICT THE FRONT REINFORCING THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER THIS REGIME...WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE TROF. TRENDED TEMPS A BIT LOWER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND CONTINUED WITH LESS DETERMINISTIC POPS...ORIENTING HIGHER CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... REDEVELOPMENT OF A BKN LN OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN AS A CDFNT ADVNS ACRS THE RGN...WITH A PD OF AT LEAST MVFR RSTRNS AND GUSTY WNDS. EXP A LT AFTN/EVE FROPA WITH GENL VFR CONDS TO FOLLOW. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RSTRNS ARE PSBL IN SCT TSTMS WED WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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