Area Forecast Discussion
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198 FXUS61 KPBZ 041951 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 351 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND THE FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ MK/KRAMAR

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