Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 132243 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 543 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A wintry mix of precipitation will be possible both Saturday and Sunday night into Monday morning. Well above normal temperatures are then expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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With 5:45pm update, minimal changes were made to the forecast through the overnight hours, including minor tweaks to temperatures, wind, and precipitation timing. Precip may be slightly delayed in its arrival, but not enough that any change will be made to the beginning of the advisories. Previous discussion follows. Precipitation is expected to develop overnight across the southern third of the forecast area as a shortwave passes and the entrance region of a 150kt jet core slowly transitions over the area. Model guidance has continued to trend south with the best dynamics and overall made minimal change needed to the inherited forecast. Soundings indicate favorable profile for freezing rain overnight and into the morning for locations south of Pittsburgh and lasting for much of the day across Garrett county as winds maintain a southeasterly component unfavorable favorable for scouring out colder valley air in place. No changes were made to previously issued freezing rain advisories. Temperature grids were modified by blending in latest bias correct EKDMOS and manual adjustments to valley temperatures in Garrett and Tucker counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Passage of that shortwave on Saturday eve will diminish any precip and pull the front southward again. Temperature very near the average is again anticipated for Saturday night and Sunday as surface high pressure settles over the region under zonal flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A deeper trough is progged to develop over the plains for the start of the new week. Warmer weather under the resulting rising heights over the Upper Ohio Region may be preceded by some additional freezing rain in the predawn of Monday. That HWO mention was maintained. Warmer weather is then expected to dominate once again until the trough ejects and drags a front toward the area late in the period. Superblend guidance represented this scenario well and was deviated from only in POP timing. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered stratocu will continue to diminish this afternoon, with prevailing VFR expected for a period until deeper moisture with a northward advancing low pressure system and short wave approaches. Models continue to tighten the gradient of precipitation across the region, as surface ridge strengthens over Ontario and Quebec. But, it still appears that a deterioration to MVFR will occur at most of the terminals, save for KFKL and KDUJ as we go into Saturday. Weak warm advection aloft with cold air at the surface supports a period of wintry mix, with freezing rain likely at KZZV, KMGW, and KLBE, with a brief period of similar conditions possible further north. At this time, confidence is highest in the ports mentioned above, so freezing rain has been added to the end of the TAF period. Conditions will further worsen over those same locations, with a period of IFR possible. Have started the trend in that direction. At this time, KFKL and KDUJ may remain VFR through the 30 hour period. The nw wind will veer to the ese and remain light through the period. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected through early next week as a series of disturbances cross the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday FOR MDZ001. OH...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday FOR OHZ057>059-068-069. PA...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday FOR PAZ031-075. Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday FOR PAZ074-076. WV...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday FOR WVZ004-012-021-509. Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday FOR WVZ510>514. && $$

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