Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171847 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 247 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SUNDAY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES UNDR UPR ERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TDA...HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING SHRTWV IN NW FLOW HAS SPAWNED STRATOCU/CU OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FIELD WL BE COMPROMISED BY TEMP REDUCTION BENEATH CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE PARTIALLY MAINTAINED TNGT AS A WEAK FRONT IS PULLED OVR THE REGION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST MDLS TRENDS...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE NR TERM CLD COVER WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTR DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS SBSDNC INCRS WITH DECISIVE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE...THE COOL NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING NAM GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE REINFORCED SFC HIGH WL BLD OFF THE E COAST BY FRIDAY WITH SLY FLOW REINITIATING WARM...RELATIVELY MOIST ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION. THIS WL CUMULATE IN TEMPS SURGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS BY SATURDAY AFTN...ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WL CONT UNTIL THE APPRCH OF THE SUNDAY CDFNT. SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE APPRCH OF A SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED CDFNT ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE THE NXT CHC FOR SHWRS OVR THE REGION WHILE PASSAGE SHOULD SURGE COOLER AIR BACK OVR THE REGION AFTR THE SATURDAY WARM UP. MDLS AGREE THAT E COAST UPR TROFG WL LINGER INTO MIDWEEK WITH NW FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES...BUT STILL DIVERGE IN MAGNITUDE OF THE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN PROJECTIONS HAVE ELIMINATED THE CLOSED MID LVL LOW PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED. THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THUS OF PERSISTENCE WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTG. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT SFC WIND WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH TNGT...ALTHOUGH STRATOCU AND CU WL PLAGUE THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT/UPR DISTURBANCE ON THU MRNG. AT MOMENT...IT APPREARS THAT CLD COVER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG RESTRICTIONS FOR ALL BUT THE NRN TERMINALS. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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