Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161441 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 941 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW CROSSING RIDGES WITH NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS ENTERING EASTERN OHIO WITH TROUGH AXIS. PREVIOUS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS LIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN RATES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES INVOLVED. MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING...KEEPING POPS HIGH UNTIL ITS EXIT. BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AND CAA WILL BEGIN AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND PULL THE COLDER AIR EASTWARD. THE CAA WILL START SLOW TONIGHT BUT WILL RAMP UP ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLDER AIR...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER RATHER QUICKLY...BUT SO WILL THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL KEEP THE POPS FOR SNOW MOSTLY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... PROVIDING ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND VEER THE WINDS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF EXPANSION OF SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT WITH INVERSIONS SO LOW IT WILL NOT BE A LARGE EXPANSION. ON THURSDAY...THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHOVED NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK RIDGE DRIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CONFINE THE SNOW SHOWER RISK TO THE NORTH. NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BLD IN THU NGT AND FRI ENDING ANY LINGERING SNW SHWRS N OF I 80. AN UPR TROF MOVG OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS... WITH A DVLPG SERN CONUS SFC LOW...WL RTN PCPN CHCS SAT INTO SUN. MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN NRN EXTENT OF ANY PCPN AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW. RIDGING IS PROGGED LTR SUN AND MON. NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONDITION DETERIORATION WL CONT TDA AS LLVLS SATURATE WITH SHWRS AND SPPRTG CDFNT. IN ADDITION...SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE WEST BY EVE WITH INITIAL GUSTS NR 20 KTS. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RSTRN POTENTIAL WL CONT FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK WITH COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF TDAS FRONT...AND WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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