Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222106 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 506 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... An upper level low across was across southwestern PA based on the latest water vapor and meso analysis. This should continue to result in scattered to numerous showers this evening. A few thunderstorms will remain possible through late afternoon as surface heating and cool air aloft has resulted in minimal instability across far western PA and eastern OH. With low freezing levels some small hail is briefly possible in a few of the storms. The showers are expected to gradually diminish later tonight as the upper low begins to move SE. Lows should be near seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper trough will gradually lift to the east, through late Tuesday, being replaced by building high pressure. Residual moisture and support from a shortwave rotating along the western edge of the trough will bring the regeneration of showers and some thunderstorms Monday afternoon, much like today. Generally confined this to counties east of I-79. With more sunshine anticipated west of I-79, near season temperatures were forecast. By Monday night, high pressure will be building overhead, giving way to mostly clear skies and warming temperatures, under southwesterly flow through, early Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper low across southwestern PA should continue to bring scattered to numerous showers, and isolated thunderstorms, across the region through this evening. MVFR conditions are possible in any of the heavier showers, with VFR elsewhere. The showers should gradually diminish this evening, though patchy IFR is expected in fog overnight with lingering low level moisture. VFR should return Monday with diurnal CU. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions are possible by late week with an approaching trough. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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