Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241742 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1242 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ADJUSTED HOURLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON LASTING 30 MINUTES OR SO AS A WAVE QUICKLY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES WINDS ALOFT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATE A BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 5KFT DEEP. WITH THAT HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO BETTER COMMUNICATE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY... THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS. WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS. BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A LULL FROM SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE FORECAST...EXPECT THAT SNOW BANDS OCCASIONALLY WILL DROP VISIBILITY INTO IFR RANGE AS WELL. COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.