Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270755 AAA AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 355 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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BULK OF RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION AS TUESDAYS COLD FRONT IS NOW STRETCHED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON- DIXON LINE AROUND SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER WV/MD RIDGES. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL HOURS AS TO WHEN RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT COULD MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION...A BIT OF A SURPRISE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ABOUT 24 HOURS AWAY. DECIDED TO NOT MAKE TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS LIKELY POPS OUT OF TONIGHTS FORECAST. WHILE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...TODAYS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS THURSDAY WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT...AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW PRESSURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PLAINS YESTERDAY...A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY CLIPS THE SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF OUR LOCAL COUNTIES WITH MUCH LESS INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE LOW TRACKING MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AS THE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A REASONABLE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN TRACK...SO OPTED TO ADJUST INHERITED POPS BY LEANING LARGELY ON LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE GEFS. THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO CONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/SUPERBLEND...WITH EC ENSEMBLE DATA INCORPORATED AS WELL AS THE ECS TEMPERATURES SEEMED MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROJECTED HEIGHTS/ANOMALIES. IF MODELS TREND FARTHER SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS MAY END UP STAYING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY IN GENERAL. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. && .EQUIPMENT...
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KPBZ RADAR HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PARTS ON ORDER...THE RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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