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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241742
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1242 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED HOURLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MAY SEE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON LASTING 30 MINUTES OR
SO AS A WAVE QUICKLY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
     WINDS ALOFT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATE A BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 5KFT DEEP. WITH
THAT HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO BETTER COMMUNICATE LIKELIHOOD OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A LULL
FROM SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE
FORECAST...EXPECT THAT SNOW BANDS OCCASIONALLY WILL DROP VISIBILITY
INTO IFR RANGE AS WELL. COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$