Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 140754 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 254 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A wintry mix of precipitation is expected across the Upper Ohio Valley Region Today. Warm weather will return next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Radars to the west displayed a rapidly advancing area of precip immediately to the north of I 70 this morning. Have used this track in combination with the HRRR model to expand precip probabilities north across the Pittsburgh area. A blend of model thickness with the latest model soundings were used to construct the wintry mix forecast across the region. The bottom line is, despite relatively light precip expectations for most areas, is that a Winter Weather Advisory was added to the northern flank of the I 70 Freezing Rain Advisory. A trace of ice with sleet and light snow may make roads hazardous. Other changes included a temporal expansion of the freezing rain advisory given expectations of limited temperature recovery and a trailing surge of precip later this morning and into the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Passage of the precip-supporting shortwave this evening will end precip and pull the front southward again. Temperature very near the average is again anticipated for Saturday night and Sunday as surface high pressure settles over the region under zonal flow aloft. A deeper trough is progged to develop over the plains for the start of the new week. Warmer weather under the resulting rising heights over the Upper Ohio Region may be preceded by some additional freezing rain in the predawn of Monday over areas along and south of I 70, but model trends with that scenario have been southward, so have retreated from any "hazard" mention. The moisture supply is progged to increase in the southwest flow on the eastern flank of the aforementioned trough. As ascent increases with the approach of that trough, so will precip chances. POPs were thus escalated to "likely" areawide by Tuesday, although warmth will preclude ice or snow.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Warmer weather is then expected to continue dominating until the trough ejects and drags a front toward the area late in the period. Superblend guidance represented this scenario well and was deviated from only in POP timing.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions should deteriorate to MVFR from PIT south this morning and afternoon as a shortwave crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region results in a wintry mix of precip. Eventual IFR is likely S of I 70 by afternoon where more precip is expected. Conditions should improve later this evening as the shortwave and precip exit and surface high pressure begins to build. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are possible S of PIT Sunday night with a crossing warm front, and likely areawide Tue/Wed with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR MDZ001. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR OHZ039>041-048>050. Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR OHZ057>059-068-069. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-073. Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR PAZ031-075. Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR WVZ001>003. Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon FOR WVZ004-012-021-509. Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR WVZ510>514.
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&& $$ 15/07

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