Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210544 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 144 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain is expected overnight with the approach and passage of a cold front. Weak high pressure should return dry weather later today. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to accompany the approach and passage of a cold front overnight. Meso analysis shows little instability in place, so removed the severe mention from the HWO. Scattered showers could continue through Friday morning SE of PIT as the front exits. Otherwise, weak surface ridging returning dry weather during the day. Temperatures are expected to drop a few degrees overnight, with highs Friday near or just above the seasonal average. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The front will stall across the Mid Atlantic states through the weekend, but different models continue to show varying solutions as to just how far north rain will progress. Still have contained likely pops to locations south of Wheeling and Latrobe, although GFS and SREF are the most aggressive models bringing rain as far north as Interstate 80. Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A lingering shower could persist Sunday night across the higher elevations, but otherwise the first half of the work week will be dry. The ECMWF and GFS show wide timing differences for Wednesday and Thursday, so have stuck with slight chance pops for now until timing is better resolved. Above normal temperatures are expected with a warming trend throughout the week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Showers have become scattered ahead of cold front across central Ohio with ocnl MVFR in showers, with cigs becoming low VFR to MVFR behind the front 10-14Z. Expect IFR CIGS at northern ports where low level moisture in weak cold advection will give low stratus into late morning. Winds will shift to the west and northwest behind the front over 10 Kts through the daytime, with widespread VFR by late afternoon. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible with weekend low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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