Area Forecast Discussion
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801 FXUS61 KPBZ 200419 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1219 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MAINTAINING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTIO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SAT PIX AND OBS. TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NO CHANGES MADE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD PROVIDING FOR COOL AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOES CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH DRYING BELOW. THIS MAY MANIFEST ITSELF MORE IN VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. THUS...CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. PIVOTING UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR. AGAIN...MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIP IN ALL THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BASED ON THE LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING UNDER A DEPARTING BROAD UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. A SLOWLY ADVANCING PLAINS AND MIDWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THAT APPROACHING TROUGH...SO WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS USING DOWNWARD TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY USING WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL ALTOCU IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE SUNDAY WARM FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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