Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030531 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD. ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT... DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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