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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192315
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
715 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 6PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE VERY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN HALF OF OHIO. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME
EVIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER
TO EVACUATE THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. AS SUCH...WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND DRY ADVECTION...TONIGHT SHOULD GO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELD AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT YET AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AND
RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOOKS RANGE BOUND BY THE DEWPOINTS. AS
SUCH...EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES JUMPING ROUGHLY 2-3C OVER THE
VALUES TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD JUMP 4-6F FROM TODAY. AS SUCH...UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S SEEM REASONABLE MOST EVERYWHERE WITH CONTINUED
RATHER DRY DEWPOINTS. ALL IN ALL...THE KIND OF WEATHER EVERYONE
LIKES TO SEE IN THE SUMMER...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A POLAR BEAR AT A
ZOO.  THEY MIGHT BE A TAD WARM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THIS STRETCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFF SHORE...BUT THINK THAT DIURNAL CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE RIDGES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO SLIP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...BUT THINK THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE BACKED
OFF FROM CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER
RIDGE BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES A FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL WILL BE THE BEST COURSE...UNTIL BETTER
SHORTWAVE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRES OVR THE GT LKS WL BRING SKC AND LGT WNDS THRU THE PD.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD TO CONT...ALTHOUGH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR WL BRING THE CHC FOR AFTN/EVE TSTMS SUN AND MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$