Area Forecast Discussion
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189 FXUS61 KPBZ 111700 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1200 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER. WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY. MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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