Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 022346 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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