Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280047 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 847 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT... ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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