Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 312214 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 614 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm and generally dry weather can be expected through Wednesday. A cold front will increase rain chances for the latter half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Forecast appears to be in fine shape. Only fly in the ointment is the incoming cirrus currently providing ovc sky at many sites...which may serve to slow radiational cooling overnight. Therefore...overnight temps were adjusted slightly to reflect a slower rate of cooling than previously forecasted. Previous discussion follows... Expect morning lows near, to about 5 degrees, above the averages as radiation promotes a comfortable night in the wake of a reinforcing front sagging over the area this evening. Tweaked MOS guidance was used to forecast the readings.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry and warm weather can be expected Wednesday under slowly eroding high pressure. Models remain in overall agreement in depictions of a shortwave/associated cold frontal approach Wednesday night and Thursday, with gradual pop escalation to "likely" numbers by Thursday. Above average temperatures are anticipated given the warm, moist advection in advance of the system. The latest MOS guidance was combined with the SUPERBLEND depiction to forecast temperatures for the short term period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Little change to previous thinking as model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage until Friday with chance pops maintained. While differences in evolution of the pattern over the weekend into early next week remain, overall trend of developing and deepening mid and upper level trough continues in all models, as a series of shortwaves move through the base of the trough. Will keep shower chances through the period. Temperatures were forecast 5 to 10 degrees below average by early next week using superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will maintain general VFR for the TAF period with exceptions for peri-dawn fog at southern ports where low level moisture may pool as a reinforcing front sags through the region today. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ Update...Kramar

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