Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291022 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 622 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE DAWN UPDATE BASED ON SATELLITE AND NEAR TERM MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH CROSSING SHORTWAVES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SMOOTHS OUT SOME EARLY WEEK OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR/ISOLATED IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST. AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER IN THE EVENING...SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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