Area Forecast Discussion
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251 FXUS61 KPBZ 191744 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1244 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty winds today in the wake of a cold front can be expected today along with scattered precipitation changing to snow over the course of the day. The majority of the work week will be dry outside of a chance of precipitation midweek with seasonal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Updated to end the wind advisory, as gusts in the higher elevations are now coming in at 35 MPH or less. Rest of the forecast is on track for now. Previous discussion... A changeover to a rain/snow mix and snow is expected by through the day as strong cold air advection continues in northwesterly flow. The warm and saturated ground will limit accumulation through much of the day. A shortwave will drop through the longwave and cross the area late this afternoon and tonight which will deepen the saturated layer through the snow growth zone somewhat..presenting the best opportunity for accumulating snow mainly along and north of I-80 and in the higher terrain. Even snow, snow ratios look to be relatively low and have opted to keep accumulations under advisory levels. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Monday and Tuesday look dry with temperatures rebounding to slightly above seasonal averages as high pressure builds back in over the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak wave passing north of the forecast area midweek will return slight chances of precipitation for locations north of I80 on Wednesday. Dry conditions will resume Thurs/Fri before the next system impacts the region next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Scattered to numerous northwest/upslope flow snow showers will continue into the evening hours. Flight conditions will vary from VFR to MVFR at most terminals. Brief IFR will be possible at several as well, although FKL/DUJ have the best chance of seeing such restrictions. Winds will continue to gust as high as 30 knots out of the WNW as well. Both the snow shower coverage and the wind gusts will diminish overnight, with MVFR/low VFR ceilings lingering. Advancing high pressure will lead to rising ceilings and decreased cloud coverage after sunrise, with winds backing to the southwest with time. .Outlook... Restriction potential returns with a Tue cold front and subsequent upper troughing through mid week.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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