Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201914 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 314 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE. SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND. TAX && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SEEING THUNDESTORMS AT ANY ONE LOCATION LOW AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME GREATER ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING ANY ON SITE ACTIVITY. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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