Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020758 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 358 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... A CROSSING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SUPPORTING LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DIG RAPIDLY NEWD WITH RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY WITH PROGRESS. HOWEVER...A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REIGNITE SHOWERS AGAIN BY TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THAT PCPN SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVR THE SOUTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA. STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTED ISOLATED SEVERE/MESO EARLIER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THAT CONDITION SHOULD NOT LAST AND INSTABILITY IS NOT WIDESPREAD...SO NO GENERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MENTION FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY/... SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY BY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DVLP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE UPR OH REGION. WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURE WAS FORECAST AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SCENARIO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TRENCH FILLS...CURRENTLY TIMED FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRATUS AND FOG RESTRICTIONS N-E OF PIT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MRNG WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPECTED ERLY THIS MRNG AS ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE RESULTS IN SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS THRU ARND SUNRISE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL THIS EVE ESP FOR PORTS S OF PIT. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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