Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240529 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 128 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN THE RIDGES. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE TRAILING DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTH. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU HAS FILLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL STUBBORNLY HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL NUDGE ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD THE SOUTH. CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHERN HALF COMPARED TO THAT OVER THE SOUTH. SOUNDINGS WANT TO ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY RE-SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. IF THE SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE...IT WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO EFFECT TEMPS FOR THE DAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND RIDGES INTO THE AFTERNOON...WAITING FOR A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE MAIN FRONT STALLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY TRAPPED NEAR THE RIDGES... MODELS POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS SETUP IS ALLOWING FOR MODEST INSTABILITY IN THESE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL REQUIRE THE INCLUSION OF POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WORKS WELL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EVACUATE THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND A VERY COMFORTABLE NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO RISE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LIFT ALOFT AND THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STORM ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION... PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY HEADING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP...STILL A BIT EARLY TO DETERMINE ITS EXACT TRACK...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE AREA COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THIS COMPLEX SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE MCS AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT SUNDAY...MEANING A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOWER THREAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... APPEARS MVFR STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND BECOME BKN VFR AFTER 13-15Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT EXPECT VFR BKN CIGS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS REGION WILL CLEAR SKIES. NEAR CALM AND CLEAR TONIGHT. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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