Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261729 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 129 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain chances return tonight, continuing at times through the holiday weekend with another area of low pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A narrow band of showers continues to edge slowly southward across the central CWA along a subtle windshift boundary. The western end is already eroding, and expect this trend to continue as a weak ridging pattern builds in. Other scattered showers outside of this band should mostly dissipate by early afternoon as well. Clouds will linger through much of the day however as low level moisture will be slow in scouring out. Kept previous forecast of temperatures a few degrees below seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... After a dry evening, shower chances are expected to increase tonight and Saturday as a shortwave advances out of the Midwest and crosses the region. An associated surface boundary is progged to set up across the Lwr OH valley through Sat night. The most favorable shear/instability is progged S of the boundary, keeping the best chance for strong thunderstorms S of the forecast area, though minimal instability further N could result in a few thunderstorms. The surface boundary is progged to lift N across the area Sunday in response to another crossing shortwave, and low pressure tracking from the MS Valley to the Lwr Great Lakes. Maintained likely POPs for showers/storms with sufficient upper support and moisture expected. The low`s associated cold front is progged for a late Sun/Sun night passage as the low tracks to Ontario, continuing the shower/storm chances. After any morning showers exit Mon, little support is depicted in the models for precip the remainder of the day. Temperatures are expected to average a few degrees above seasonal levels through the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A broad upper trough is expected to persist across the Great Lakes and NE CONUS region through much of the week. Shortwaves rotating through the main trough should result in periodic low chances for showers, as temperatures return to within a few degrees of average. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 17Z, ZZV and MGW had VFR ceilings, and ceilings should trend upward into VFR levels slowly from south to north through the rest of the afternoon. Little more than drizzle is expected through the afternoon as well. Low pressure and an area of showers and thunderstorms currently over Iowa and Illinois will track east this afternoon/evening and should hold together into the forecast area. There is still some uncertainty as to the track by the time the low pressure system arrives, but the current forecast keeps the highest chance of thunderstorms to ZZV/HLG/MGW between midnight and sunrise. Once low pressure passes, some showers may continue, but the greater flight impact will come from IFR ceilings that will develop. IFR should persist through the morning, with ceilings eventually lifting to VFR during the afternoon. .Outlook... Showers continue through much of the period with episodic restrictions.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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