Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222201 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 601 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather through mid week before shower chances return with a late week cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure should maintain dry weather and mostly clear skies through Tuesday as it moves east across the region. After cool morning lows, highs Tuesday should return to just above seasonal levels on the western side of the high. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging will continue to build toward the area into the short term portion of the forecast, which should maintain subsidence over the area at least through Wednesday. Warming will occur progressively as a result with 850 mb temperatures increasing right along with an uptrend low level mixing such that high temperatures should increase toward the upper 80s by mid-week. Likewise, humidity will increase with dewpoints running up toward the lower 70s by Thursday. However, also by Thursday, the first short wave trough to overrun the ridge will likely be passing. The increase in instability concurrent with the trough passage will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms as a result. In addition, while 850 mb temperatures will max out on Thursday, clouds and some showers will likely keep temperatures from getting too out of hand. Thus, upper 80s were again forecast for Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A sprawling upper level anti-cyclone will continue to reside over the central and southern Appalachians through the long term forecast. This will keep the polar jet well to the north of the US/Canada border and thus the vast majority of forcing for ascent there as well. The long term looks primarily dry and above normal as a result with only episodic very low chances of thunderstorms as weak short waves overtop the ridge. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the evening as high pressure dominates the region. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for fog development along the river valleys. Additional fog development could occur in some of the more favorable terminal locations of DUJ/ZZV. Calm surface winds overnight will gradually shift to light southerly winds Tuesday afternoon. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restriction potential returns with the approach and passage of a cold front Thursday and Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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