Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210627 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 127 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation tonight. Dry weather and below average temperature are expected for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No changes to the overnight period are required. Warm advection, on southerly flow and sunshine, will push high temperature a few degrees above the seasonal averages today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold front will quickly swing through the area this evening. Model are showing sufficient upper level support and low-level forcing to continue with likely to categorical POPs, mainly over the northern half of the region. The cold airmass behind the front does not look deep enough to sustain a very long period of post frontal snow showers. Forecast soundings are showing saturation levels dropping quickly, well below the dendritic snow growth layer. Any snow accumulation should be limited to the I 80 corridor and ridges. Less than an inch is anticipated in those areas. High pressure will then ensure a dry midweek and Thanksgiving holiday, with sub average temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ensemble forecasts are showing the next cold front dropping through the area on Saturday, followed by the next trough setting up over the Eastern CONUS, which will hold into the beginning of next week. Cold surface high is expected to build back in late Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through much of the day with restrictions at FKL and DUJ late tonight as a front quickly crosses. Winds will increase ahead of the front as the pressure gradient increases with wind gusts around 20 kts. .Outlook... Subsequent cold advection is expected to maintain MVFR cigs into Wednesday, but improvement can be expected as the day progresses. The next chance for restrictions is forecast with an early Saturday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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