Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 222201
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
601 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016
High pressure will provide dry weather through mid week before
shower chances return with a late week cold front.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure should maintain dry weather and mostly clear skies
through Tuesday as it moves east across the region. After cool
morning lows, highs Tuesday should return to just above seasonal
levels on the western side of the high.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging will continue to build toward the area into the short term
portion of the forecast, which should maintain subsidence over the
area at least through Wednesday. Warming will occur progressively
as a result with 850 mb temperatures increasing right along with
an uptrend low level mixing such that high temperatures should
increase toward the upper 80s by mid-week. Likewise, humidity will
increase with dewpoints running up toward the lower 70s by
Thursday. However, also by Thursday, the first short wave trough
to overrun the ridge will likely be passing. The increase in
instability concurrent with the trough passage will increase the
chance of showers and thunderstorms as a result. In addition,
while 850 mb temperatures will max out on Thursday, clouds and
some showers will likely keep temperatures from getting too out of
hand. Thus, upper 80s were again forecast for Thursday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A sprawling upper level anti-cyclone will continue to reside over
the central and southern Appalachians through the long term
forecast. This will keep the polar jet well to the north of the
US/Canada border and thus the vast majority of forcing for ascent
there as well. The long term looks primarily dry and above normal
as a result with only episodic very low chances of thunderstorms
as weak short waves overtop the ridge.
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the evening as high pressure
dominates the region. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for
fog development along the river valleys. Additional fog
development could occur in some of the more favorable terminal
locations of DUJ/ZZV.
Calm surface winds overnight will gradually shift to light
southerly winds Tuesday afternoon.
.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restriction potential returns with the approach and passage of a
cold front Thursday and Friday.