Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270701 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 201 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AREA OF SNOW LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVER NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION. FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023- 041. && $$

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