Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 040213 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 913 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... CLEARING HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS ALL BY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. MIXING IN THE SECTOR OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED IN OUR AREA...AND WITHOUT SNOW ON THE GROUND...EVEN WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...FOG OUTSIDE OF MAYBE GARRETT COUNTY SEEMS UNLIKELY. COLD ADVECTION REALLY STARTS IN EARNEST BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT...AND LITTLE SEEMS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...EXCEPT THAT STRATOCUMULUS WAS DELAYED A FEW HOURS IN MOVING IN OVERNIGHT BASED UPON EXTRAPOLATION. FRIES NEXT FRONT...REPRESENTING THE MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...WILL WORK ACROSS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK BACK IN THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE MOISTURE BECOMES SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THEM. THESE WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A SLOW CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SKIM TO OUR NORTHWEST...PROVIDING MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN WNW WITH TIME...SO ONLY A MODEST UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS FORESEEN. KEPT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE NORTH AND EAST OF PIT...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE MOSTLY UNTAPPED...AND LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORESEEN. ACTIVITY DROPS OFF AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE RATE OF COLD ADVECTION SLOWS AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF. CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND THUS DID NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH. CL && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WHILE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD THURSDAY EVENING...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH A CLIPPER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS INCLUDED IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AFTER A DRY PERIOD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...AND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO BUILD...CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ IN THE MORNING BUT INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT CATEGORIES STAY WITHIN MVFR LIMITS. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE STUBBORN STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN ALL DAY THURSDAY ACROSS ALL PORTS. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... GENERAL VFR CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.