Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221818 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z. CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW. .AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JSH

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