Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191848 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 148 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system crosses the region Tuesday night. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Stratus mainly south of I-70 will dissipate this evening. Clear skies and building high pressure will allow for chilly temperatures, but still above the seasonal norms. A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring a mild and dry Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Strong ridging will keep very warm temperatures across the region into Tuesday. A weak front will arrive with a shortwave to beat down mid levels heights somewhat Tuesday, and give likely POPs for showers mainly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. High pressure will end showers for Wednesday, with temperatures remaining 15 to 20 degrees above average.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Long term continues to highlight very warm temperatures to end the work week, as another mid level ridge builds across the eastern CONUS. As a trough amplifies over the southwestern US and ejects into the Central Plains by late week, shower chances will increase later Thursday into Friday. Low pressure moving northeast across the Great Lakes will drag a strong cold front east Friday night with showers, and with strong mid level dynamics, a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures falling back toward the seasonal norms for Saturday into Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 18Z, MVFR stratus continues to impact KZZV and KMGW, but stratus should sink south in the next two hours. After that, VFR conditions will occur at all terminals. Model guidance hints that there could be additional MVFR restrictions overnight, but am not convinced that there will be enough low-level moisture. For now, have generally stuck with a mention of scattered MVFR clouds, although even if clouds remain scattered, winds may be light enough to allow fog to develop. Have not put any restrictions in the forecast yet. West winds around 10 kt this afternoon will lighten and veer to the northwest overnight. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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