Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 160531
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1231 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
Dry weather and seasonal temperatures overnight before light
precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front. More
widespread rain is expected on Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Weak impulse moving just south of the CWA managed to spread some
very light rain into the ridges of WV/MD during the past couple of
hours. Expect the next few hours to remain dry. Towards 12Z,
southwest flow and increasing isentropic lift could push very
light precipitation towards the Mason-Dixon Line. Slight chance
PoPs are still appropriate for this as hi-res models are mostly
dry. Any precipitation could be in the form of very light freezing
rain along its northern periphery. Chances are too small for a
headline or even an HWO mention at this time. Otherwise, have
dropped temperatures a few degrees overnight, based on quicker
cooling in the thinner and higher clouds across much of the area.
Expect temperature drop to steady out towards morning in slow warm
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low precipitation chances will return overnight across southern
zones and spread north into and Monday but expect the majority of
the day to be dry. In general, precipitation still looks to be
primarily rain but there still is a chance some areas may see
freezing rain initially, especially in the higher terrain of WV
and MD. Low confidence in occurrence precludes an HWO mention at
There will be a much better chance of rain Monday night and
Tuesday with increasing shortwave support and the surface low
tracks northeast over the Great Lakes. Rain chances will continue
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough crosses the area.
Warm advection will result in temperatures climbing to average 10
to 20 degrees above seasonal levels.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Eastern CONUS ridging is progged to develop through the weekend as
a deep trough moves across the Plains and Midwest, resulting in
mainly dry and warm weather for the local area through the
period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees
above seasonal levels using tweaked Superblend guidance numbers.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions should gradually deteriorate to MVFR through the
day from S-N in warm, moist advection ahead of an approaching warm
front. Further deterioration to IFR is expected by this evening as
rain overspreads the area.
Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low