Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180145 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 945 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will result in dry weather and a warming trend through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will dominate through the period with clear skies and light wind. While tonight would offer up a similar scenario to last night/this morning with cooler than average temperatures and frost potential, we don`t anticipate to fully decouple as there may be just enough low level mixing to preclude widespread frost. In addition, increasing dewpoints in even weak southwest flow supports a patchy, at best, frost mention and no headlines. Slight moderation is expected in temperature tomorrow with plenty of insolation and weak warm advection. Values will be just a degree or two above todays highs. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather continues through this period as high pressure remains in control at the surface. 500 mb heights will rise through Wednesday, but a shortwave passing across the northern Great Lakes will knock them down temporarily Thursday. Despite this, the surface low will remain well north, towards Hudson Bay, and thus the dry forecast is maintained. Temperatures will rise back above normal levels, reaching around 70 once again by Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid-level heights build once again Friday, with the ridge persisting through the weekend. This leads to a continuation of the dry and warm pattern. The next chance of rain arrives Sunday night/Monday with a cold front. A troughing pattern may then set up by Tuesday with continued shower chances and temperatures around normal, if not lower than that. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR is expected through the TAF period under high pressure. Wind will remain light out of the southwest through the period. Any valley fog that develops may briefly impact the typical terminals but the duration and confidence in development is not high enough for inclusion. .Outlook... No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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