Area Forecast Discussion
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589 FXUS61 KPBZ 301135 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 735 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary may generate scattered thunderstorms over the ridges this afternoon. Otherwise dry and seasonably warm weather can be expected into mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No major changes were needed for the post dawn update. A weak frontal boundary will slide across the Upper Ohio Region today and slight to chance precipitation probabilities were maintained for that passage. The front will usher in slightly lower dew points with insolation supporting max temperatures about 5 degrees above average. A clear night with average low temperature is forecast with building high pressure tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Subsidence with that high is expected to maintain dry weather into Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again. Thereafter, general model agreement is of a mid level trough and associated cold front approaching late Wednesday night and crossing the region Thursday. Precipitation probabilities were gradually escalated for that occurrence and accompanied by an above average temperature forecast given the warm, moist advection in advance of that feature. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and temperatures at or below superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Building high pressure will ensure general vfr with exceptions for peri-dawn fog, and some scattered showers and storms in vicinity of LBE and MGW as a weak front completes passage this afternoon. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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