Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211129 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 729 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The chance for showers and storms return today and will continue into the weekend. The best chance for widespread showers will arrive on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A stalled front will lay across the middle of the region through much of the day. This front will become the focal point for additional development this afternoon. Would expect a combination of daytime heating, although it may be curbed by cloud cover, and an afternoon shortwave, to be the trigger to get showers and possibly a storm to fire this afternoon. The strength of development would likely be predicated on how much sun we see. Convective temps will be in the upper 70s, so sunshine will help to push surface readings toward those levels. If convection does fire, it will generally be south of the boundary and it will drift south-eastward late this afternoon and into the evening. The aforementioned shortwave will drive the surface boundary to the south this evening and the activity will dissipate due to the loss of daytime heating. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The unsettled pattern continues into Thursday with a shortwave moving across the area. Again, stuck with low chance pops, primarily across northern counties. The most active weather period for the week still appears to occur Friday into Friday night. Models are in good agreement that another cold front will enter the region from the west late Friday and move through Friday night. Showers will overspread the area well ahead of the surface boundary Friday morning, as a series of shortwaves move across the southern half of the area. If these waves end up tracking as forecasted, would think most of the rain for the first half of the day would be over the south, until the front arrives. This may help to curb stronger convection with the boundary. Still much to be worked out for the Friday forecast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The chance of showers will linger south and east of Pittsburgh Saturday along the back side of the front, and an additional shortwave could spark showers on Sunday. High pressure should build in for Monday and Tuesday, resulting in quiet weather. Temperatures will remain below normal through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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General VFR is expected through the TAF period outside of any showers and storms that may develop from KPIT south along a weak frontal boundary this afternoon. Surface winds will veer WNW by late afternoon / early evening behind this boundary as it drifts south. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely Friday with the approach of a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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