Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270404 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. 850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR PORTS SOUTH OF I 80. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW PRESSURE.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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