Area Forecast Discussion
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026 FXUS61 KPBZ 191644 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1244 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL USHER IN SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS TREK TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE REMAINING...THERE HAVE BEEN VERY FEW NOTABLE RETURNS ON THE RADAR. HOWEVER...WILL AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES AS THE FRONT CROSSES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS STRUGGLING TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS DUE TO MIXING OF DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTENT IN CLOUD COVER...IS IT FINALLY MAKES IT HERE... FINALLY WILL HAVE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...THEY WERE CONSTRUCTED AROUND MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES ARE PROJECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT TWEAKS WERE BASED ON THE LATEST ADJUSTED MET AND GFS MOS TRENDS. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WERE IN THE FORM OF PRECIP PROBABILITY ADDITIONS...ALBEIT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE NUMBERS...AS GFS AND NAM CONT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I 80 WITH A RAPIDLY CROSSING SHORTWAVE IN THE PREDAWN OF THURSDAY. PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT INDICATE A SATURATED COLUMN...HENCE ANY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EXCEED THE SPRINKLE CATEGORY. MINIMAL POP NUMBERS WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW...BUT WERE NOT EXTENDED TO THE MOISTURE STARVED REINFORCING FRONT PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY ENCROACHMENT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING UNDER A DEPARTING BROAD UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. A SLOWLY ADVANCING PLAINS AND MIDWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THAT APPROACHING TROUGH...SO WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS USING DOWNWARD TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY USING WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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DRY ADVECTION AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING CEILING HEIGHTS WITH AN EVENTUAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUD DECK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL VFR COOL AIR STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$

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