Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220416 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1216 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION AFTER A SLIGHT FRIDAY SHOWER CHANCE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO WOBBLE EWD. MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST. ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR. SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT. .AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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