Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271427 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 927 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MID MRNG UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEA AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW PERSISTS. THAT ZONE IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EWD AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS NEWD LTR TDA. OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NNWLY FLOW ALOFT TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL SPPRT A TEMP SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND ARND ZERO ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER. POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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