Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280812 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 312 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through tonight before a strong cold results in gusty showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Wintry weather returns behind the front for the last half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Showers are expected to increase in coverage across the area today with a crossing shortwave in SW flow ahead of an approaching Western CONUS trough. Maintained likely to categorical POPs with sufficient ascent and moisture progged. Temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Showers are expected to taper off later in the evening as the wave exits. Another shortwave, along with developing jet support, increasing shear and elevated instability, should return showers and possible thunderstorms to the area late tonight. By Wednesday, the western trough is progged to approach the Great Lakes region as an associated surface low tracks from the Midwest into Southern Ontario. Speed and directional shear are progged to continue to increase as the low`s associated cold front approaches. 500 MB winds are progged near 100kt by Wed afternoon, an indication of the very strong jet overhead. The main question remaining is how much destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with existing cloud cover and precip in the area. SPC has upgraded all of the area to a slight risk for severe weather, with the greater enhanced risk S of I 70. This seems reasonable given the impressive wind fields. Will continue to mention in the HWO and monitor. After the late Wed FROPA, upper troughing, cold advection, and limited lake and terrain enhancement should result in scattered snow showers Thursday. A reinforcing shortwave and surface low/front is progged for a Thursday night/Friday passage with some light snow accumulation possible. Trended toward the SREF solution as operational models continue to struggle handling this feature. After temps peak on Wednesday around 25 degrees above average, a return to below seasonal average temps are expected to end the week.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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General zonal flow is progged by the weekend as the upper trough exits, with mainly dry conditions and moderating temperatures. Shower chances return by early next week as the pattern amplifies and the next trough approaches.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR under increasing upr and mid level cloudiness will deteriorate this afternoon as a disturbance in southwest flow aloft spreads rain over the region. Expect general MVFR after 18z. Further deterioration to IFR, especially at FKL and DUJ is expected tonight along with llvl wind shear as flow strengthens on the flank of Great Lakes low pressure. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions and wind problems can be expected with, and in the wake of a Wednesday cold front. Periodic restrictions are likely through Friday as cold low pressure crosses the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15

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