Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 292352
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible tonight ahead
of a cold front. High pressure should result in dry weather for
Memorial Day through mid week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Updated PoP and weather grids for the evening hours. Most of the
heavier precipitation has tapered off, leaving clusters of showers
in their wake. Still watching storms along the boundary in western
Ohio. but expect these to weaken as they approach later this
evening due to the loss of daytime heating. A few isolated showers
remain possible past midnight.
Most of the rainfall should diminish after sunset, although an
isolated thunderstorm will be possible across much of the region
through the evening and overnight hours. A cold front will cross
the region late tonight into early Monday morning. Although
temperatures will be slightly cooler for the holiday, the greater
impact will be clearing skies through the day.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather
for the middle portion of the week. Temperatures are expected to
average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels using a blend of
GFS gridded MOS and consensus guidance.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models in good overall agreement on a cold front approaching the
region by Thursday afternoon and attempting to push east by
Friday. A shortwave ahead of a trough axis moving across the
great lakes may slow progression of the front Friday until trough
passes so chance pops continued. No significant changes for
Saturday with chance pops mainly for the ridges with lingering
low level moisture. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin
to trend toward the seasonal average late week.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most shower and thunderstorm activity has ceased for the time
being across the area, with VFR conditions prevailing. Scattered
storms are lined up ahead of a cold front across western Ohio. The
front is making slow eastward progress, and may take until sunrise
to reach the Ohio River. Although a storm may survive long enough
to threaten restriction across eastern Ohio later tonight, the
chances are slim, and thus currently have no mention in the ZZV
TAF. Overnight, fog will be the bigger question. Have continued
with a forecast favoring persistence, with IFR forecast at those
terminals that saw those restrictions last night. AGC is likely to
fog tonight given the heavy rainfall earlier today. Fog should
dissipate by midmorning Monday, with VFR conditions then expected
for the remainder of the day as the cold front crosses with little
.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a
front Thursday night into Friday.