Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150251 AAD AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1051 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are likely through Friday morning as a series of disturbances ahead of a cold front cross the region. Dry but cooler weather will return Saturday before additional disturbances create cooler, unsettled weather to start the next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - A round of storms ahead of a front will offer isolated severe threats during overnight hours. ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1045pm update... Storms continue to weaken as they move east southeast. Two separate areas, the one to the north being fueled by a low level just and the one to the south fueled by a shortwave trough rushing eastward in the zonal flow aloft. Was able to remove three counties from the tornado watch as the stronger convection has moved south. Overnight PoPs were updated as well as temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and a few thunderstorms Friday, with low probability flood threat. - Dry and cooler Saturday - Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front ------------------------------------------------------------------- Showers and embedded thunderstorms will remain likely south of the sagging cold front Friday, but dry advection from the north and the eventual passage of the shortwave trough axis will push remaining storms south and east of the region by Friday evening. Cooler air filtering in behind the front will drop area temperature but remain 10 degrees above the daily average. Any threat from the remaining thunderstorms will be tied to flooding due to multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain; however, probabilities for high rainfall rates (given limited instability) and excessive rain (less than 10% chance of 24 hr QPF values exceeding 1") are too low for any strong mention of flood potential. The Upper Ohio River Valley will experience dry weather under the influence of high pressure as it sits between shortwave activity to the north and south. Slight warm advection combined with insolation will support area temperature approximately 10 degrees above the daily average. The northern stream shortwave will drop southeast overnight Saturday, but with a more meager moisture profile, will generated showers mostly confined to northwest/western PA (with lower probabilities into OH and northern WV). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - An active and colder pattern the first half of the week - Snow shower chances return Monday and Tuesday ---------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble models favor an active weather pattern through early next week as a series of shortwave troughs cross the region amid broad Great Lakes troughing. Expect slight swings in temperature between systems, oscillating between near to below normal, as well as periodic precipitation chances. There is high confidence that enough cold advection will occur with a Monday/Tuesday system to foster a primarily all-snow precipitation-type event; this, like others, system may be more limited in available moisture which would limit the potential for any impact. By mid week, height rises as flow aloft becomes more zonal is expected, which would foster a return to near/above normal temperature and at least a brief period of dry weather. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Another round of showers and thunderstorms develop this evening after 00z over central Ohio, then pushing eastward through the local area generally between 00z-06z. This will be the best chance to see thunder at most area terminals. At this time, confidence was high enough at ZZV to include TS from 02z-05z, but with lacking instability further east, hi res guidance disagreement on timing, and SREF/NBM ProbThunder dropping off to the east, opted to hold off for now on TS mention at all other sites and kept VCTS, though probabilities would be higher for BVI/PIT/AGC/MGW. Wind gusts will increase again as a cold front approaches and the gradient tightens overnight, with southwesterly gusts to 20-25 knots (potentially higher in any thunderstorms). Thunder chances for all terminals will diminish after 07z. Low level wind shear will also be a threat through around 07z with a 35-40 kt LLJ impinging overhead and surface winds relaxing some since earlier in the day. A cold front advances through the area from northwest to southeast after 09z tonight with MVFR/IFR restrictions becoming more widespread as it pushes through. MVFR CIGs become likely (60-80% chance) after 07z and will hold at MVFR until some drier air works in Friday behind the front. Chances are highest for IFR primarily for FKL/DUJ (40-50%) but lower further south. The front and its associated rain showers finally depart late Friday morning and restrictions begin to lift in their wake. .Outlook... Ceilings improve back to VFR levels Friday night but patchy fog development could maintain restrictions through early Saturday. VFR briefly returns later Saturday under high pressure, before another cold front returns increasing potential for precip and restrictions on Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22/Frazier NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...Frazier LONG TERM...Frazier AVIATION...Cermak/MLB

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