Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261842 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 242 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES IS SPAWNED SCT TSTMS OVR WRN OHIO THIS AFTN. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD...AND MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS...TRACK OF WHICH MAY CLIP ECNTRL OHIO THIS EVE. THE RISK OF SVR WITH THAT IS SLGT...BUT HAS BEEN INCLUDED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS OVR THE ERN AND SRN COUNTIES OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT CONTS TO BE SUNDAY AS DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE UPR OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND UPR WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE ARE HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED OVR...AND IN VCNTY OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BLANKETED THAT AREA WITH A MODERATE SEVERE RISK. PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT WITH A MIX OF DIURNAL CU AND SC...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LWR TO MVFR FOR FKL AND DUJ OVRNGT. A WK SHRTWV APCHS THIS EVE...BUT WITH PCPN COVG IN QN ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS. AN MCS WL LIKELY AFFECT ZZV AND MGW LT TNGT INTO ERLY SUN MRNG...AND MAINTAINED SHWRS WITH A VCTS MENTION FOR THOSE PORTS. ADDNL STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPD TO DVLP SUN AS LOW PRES ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS/UP OH VLY RGN. TIMING RMNS QNABLE SO OPTED FOR A VCTS INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM. OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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