Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 292352 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 752 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible tonight ahead of a cold front. High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Updated PoP and weather grids for the evening hours. Most of the heavier precipitation has tapered off, leaving clusters of showers in their wake. Still watching storms along the boundary in western Ohio. but expect these to weaken as they approach later this evening due to the loss of daytime heating. A few isolated showers remain possible past midnight. CL Previous discussion... Most of the rainfall should diminish after sunset, although an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across much of the region through the evening and overnight hours. A cold front will cross the region late tonight into early Monday morning. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler for the holiday, the greater impact will be clearing skies through the day. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather for the middle portion of the week. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels using a blend of GFS gridded MOS and consensus guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models in good overall agreement on a cold front approaching the region by Thursday afternoon and attempting to push east by Friday. A shortwave ahead of a trough axis moving across the great lakes may slow progression of the front Friday until trough passes so chance pops continued. No significant changes for Saturday with chance pops mainly for the ridges with lingering low level moisture. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend toward the seasonal average late week. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Most shower and thunderstorm activity has ceased for the time being across the area, with VFR conditions prevailing. Scattered storms are lined up ahead of a cold front across western Ohio. The front is making slow eastward progress, and may take until sunrise to reach the Ohio River. Although a storm may survive long enough to threaten restriction across eastern Ohio later tonight, the chances are slim, and thus currently have no mention in the ZZV TAF. Overnight, fog will be the bigger question. Have continued with a forecast favoring persistence, with IFR forecast at those terminals that saw those restrictions last night. AGC is likely to fog tonight given the heavy rainfall earlier today. Fog should dissipate by midmorning Monday, with VFR conditions then expected for the remainder of the day as the cold front crosses with little precipitation. CL .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front Thursday night into Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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