Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 130409 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1209 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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MORNING SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE REGION TODAY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE COMPLETED FOR THE OVRNGT PD AS APRCHG SHRTWV IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS WITH INTIAL FOCUS BEING THE INVERTED TROF LYING ALNG THE WINDWARD SLOPE OF THE ALLEGHANIES. SCT...TO NMRS SHWRS SHOULD SPREAD OVR THE RMNDR OF THE AREA...BUT THE DISTURBANCE WL BE A QUICK HITTER AND IS PROJECTED SUFFICIENTLY EWD BY THIS AFTN TO RAPIDLY ELIMINATE POPS. THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WL REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS...HENCE PROGGED READINGS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGS UNDR THE AVGS WERE MAINTAINED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL THEN MAINTAIN DRY WEA THRU MON...WHILE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROAD ERN CANADIAN UPR LOW HOLDS THE COOL AIRMASS OVR THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. A TEMP FORECAST ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES UNDR THE NORMALS WAS THUS CONTD WITH TWEAKS COMPLETED USING GFS BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND SREF MEANS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN ADVNG SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO SPAWN SHWRS MONDAY NGT AND EARLY TUES. SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS THEN FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE RMNDR OF THE LONG TERM PD. LONG TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HPC GUIDANCE... TWEAKED UPWARD VIA GFS MOS TRENDS.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CIGS BLANKET ALL PORTS BUT MGW AND LBE. CLEARING LINE IS TRYING TO EDGE ITS WAY WESTWARD...SO AGC AND PIT MAY SEE SOME LESSENING OF CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE MVFR CIG DECK TO THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. FORECAST WILL MIRROR THIS TREND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAWN...DON`T EXPECT MANY RESTRICTIONS AND RAINFALL MAY AVOID ZZV. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTS...RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/22

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