Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251251 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 851 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather until advancing low pressure returns rain chances to the region on Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The post-dawn update featured the expiration of the frost advisory as well as some tweaks to precip probability along the I 80 corridor. Otherwise, cold northwest flow and insolation will continue to support stratocu, and a sufficient mixing layer for a few showers over, and north of the I 80 corridor. Expect highs about 10 degrees under the averages under this pattern (about 5 under for counties around Zanesville. By tonight, building high pressure will veer, and lighten the wind sufficiently for the stratocu layer to dissipate. Radiational cooling will support a cold night with lows about 10 degrees under the averages which are around 40 F. No headlines are planned as the growing season will be declared ended given the region is two weeks beyond the median-freeze date.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As a deepening Great Lakes low pressure system approaches Wednesday, a warm front will lift across the area. This will bring an increase in clouds, but dry air near the surface should maintain a dry forecast through much of Wednesday. Shower chances increase Wednesday night as the surface low moves into IN/OH. Models seem a bit slower with the approach of this system, but the general track largely remains the same. Categorical PoPs have been included across the north for Thursday morning with likelies maintained elsewhere. An increasing low-level jet will keep Wednesday night lows relatively warm and return gusty winds to the region Thursday. Timing details could change some, but the current forecast follows a GFS-modified diurnal trend instead of a more climatological trend. The upper low will close off over New England Thursday night, keeping cold northwest flow across the region into Thursday night with scattered showers. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Any lingering northwest flow showers should wane Friday evening as high pressure briefly crosses the region. Models show another system dampening the crest of the broad upper ridge to the west early Saturday, but significant model differences exist on track and timing. Regardless, unsettled weather looks to continue over the weekend, with focus of rain showers north of Pittsburgh. Thus, have maintained the likely PoPs across the northern 1/3 of the forecast area. A building ridge will then establish over the southeastern CONUS early next week with drier and much warmer conditions expected. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR, with showers in vicinity of FKL and DUJ, and low end VFR stratocu will persist this morning, but improvement can be expected this afternoon as subsidence, gradually veering wind, and dry advection all retard flow off the lakes. Northwest wind, with gusts of 15 to 20kt, will weaken as eve approachs. VFR and light wind will dominate the remainder of the TAF period. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next chance for general restrictions will come late Wednesday with low pressure advancing out of the midwest. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None.
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