Area Forecast Discussion
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355 FXUS61 KPBZ 050544 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1244 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Some locations in the higher elevations are expected to receive freezing rain tonight. An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week, with much colder air arriving by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Area of precipitation is rapidly shifting eastward, as the negatively tilted trough shifts northeastward, taking much of the lift with it. While we will see an end to measurable precipitation within the next hour or two, some drizzle may be possible as dry air moves in aloft. PoPs were adjusted based on the latest observations and trends, but have not added widespread drizzle at this time. Over these next couple of hours however, southeasterly flow and low level instability continue support for snow and sleet in our northern zones and some freezing rain in the ridges. Think that the window for rain will be rather short over the counties north of I-80 so Ive upped the snow accumulation in those areas. A slushy 1-2 inches is likely in the northernmost counties through this morning. In the ridges, temperatures are gradually warming, with eastern Tucker most likely seeing rain at this time, but values remain just at freezing in Garrett. Thus, will keep the advisory going as advertised. Cold advection on the backside of this system, though brief, may allow for some wet flakes to mix in toward morning over the ridges before subsidence ends precipitation across the entire region. But models disagree on the depth of saturation of the boundary layer. Have kept the low chance pops through just after sunrise today. Despite high pressure settling overhead, cloud cover should limit temperatures to just below seasonal averages today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Clouds will stream back in Monday night in advance of a low pressure system that will move across the region. As precipitation moves in Monday night and Tuesday morning, many places could have a brief period of freezing rain before warm advection changes all precipitation over to rain by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued with categorical pops through this time period, with rain changing over to snow as it wraps up late Tuesday night into Wednesday. High temperatures in the low to mid 40s on Tuesday will likely be the warmest readings of the 7 day forecast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Yet another system moves through Thursday, with a cold front bringing another chance for precip. Most of this precipitation would likely fall as snow, and behind the front temperatures will plunge into the teens by Thursday night. Cold advection should then prompt snow showers to continue through Saturday morning. Temperatures will struggle to recover, but another cold front will approach from the west Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The bulk of the precipitation will be pulling out over the next couple of hours as low pressure rapidly moves off. Widespread IFR or low MVFR ceilings will be left in its wake for the rest of the night into mid-morning Monday, along with some patchy fog/mist. Northwest flow behind the system will keep ceilings MVFR into the afternoon, but improvement to VFR is expected by sunset as high pressure crosses. While clouds may break for a period this evening, high clouds will already be advancing northward ahead of the next system by midnight. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night as the next low pressure system crosses. A strong cold front will bring more restrictions by Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning FOR MDZ001. OH...None. PA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning FOR WVZ514. && $$

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