Area Forecast Discussion
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074 FXUS61 KPBZ 152207 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 507 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather and seasonal temperatures this evening before light precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front. More widespread rain is expected on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Very minor changes to grids. Pushed off slight chance PoPs a bit based on latest HRRR/RAP runs showing little chance of precipitation before midnight, and may push off further with the next update if the dry trend continues. The meager isentropic lift on the 285K/290K surfaces does appear to hold off until after 12Z for the most part, further supporting a drier forecast. This would further reduce the already small chances of freezing rain. Small tweaks to sky and T/Td curves otherwise, with stratus lingering a little longer near the Mason-Dixon Line. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low precipitation chances will return overnight across southern zones and spread north into and Monday but expect the majority of the day to be dry. In general, precipitation still looks to be primarily rain but there still is a chance some areas may see freezing rain initially, especially in the higher terrain of WV and MD. Low confidence in occurrence precludes an HWO mention at this time. There will be a much better chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday with increasing shortwave support and the surface low tracks northeast over the Great Lakes. Rain chances will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough crosses the area. Warm advection will result in temperatures climbing to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Eastern CONUS ridging is progged to develop through the weekend as a deep trough moves across the Plains and Midwest, resulting in mainly dry and warm weather for the local area through the period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels using tweaked Superblend guidance numbers. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prevailing VFR is expected as high clouds begin to spread northward in advance of a deepening low pressure over the central Plains. Removed mention of vcsh on Monday, as latest model data is showing a drier atmosphere, although do expect mvfr cigs to develop at ZZV and MGW during the afternoon. Wind will remain light with surface high shifting eastward. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions can be expected with a warm front late Monday and a Tue/Wed cdfnt. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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