Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030136 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 936 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...NO OTHER CHANGES. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY AND ANY FORCING IS WELL SOUTH OF REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WERE MODIFIED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. NO CHANGES FOR FRIDAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPREADING SHOWERS NORTHWARD...WITH NO POPS ALONG I-80. TEMPS STILL A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW. THE MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TAKES OVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE 300MB JET CORRIDOR REMAINS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING...BUT WILL BE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST AT THAT POINT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. MUCH DRIER AIR INVADES FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY REMAINING DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS PORTS AT TIMES. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDRY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON FRIDAY...SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INTO NRN WV. VCSH INCLUDED AT KMGW. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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