Area Forecast Discussion
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400 FXUS61 KPBZ 290554 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 154 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and mainly dry weather is expected with building high pressure early this week. A midweek cold front should return seasonal temperatures to the region by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Showers and isolated thunderstorms should continue to taper off overnight with exiting shortwave support and diminishing diurnal instability. A weak cold front is expected to move south across the region overnight, but with no significant shortwave support expect only a wind shift with it`s passage. Lows should continue to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Newest model guidance pushes the aforementioned boundary south of the region by Monday afternoon as reinforcing shortwaves help deepen a trough over the Northeast U.S. through midweek. The surface front may continue to provide focus for diurnally enhanced convection over the mountains in WV, but building surface high under northwest flow should suppress precip by Tuesday. A second and more notable boundary, as far as temperatures change, will approach on Wednesday. At this time, it appears that instability and moisture will be rather meager with this fronts passage so very low pops were kept, based on a blend of guidance and timing differences through Wednesday. Temperatures should moderate to near normal with northwest flow/cool advection by Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Troughing over the eastern CONUS will result in cooler temperatures the remainder of the week before ridging builds back in this weekend. Dry conditions are forecast under dry northwesterly flow and ridging later in the period. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Areas of MVFR/IFR fog are expected to develop overnight, despite lower dew points filtering in, mainly in or near ports that received rain Sunday evening. Fog will lift 13Z-14Z on Monday, with VFR conditions expected by midday area wide. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions are possible with a cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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