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131
FXUS61 KPBZ 261118
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
718 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid through the end of the week with daily afternoon
storm, isolated flooding, and severe wind chances. A slight
cooldown is possible this weekend, though storm and flood
chances may linger during daytime hours through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat concerns continue through Thursday with Heat Index values
  around 100 degrees.
- Severe storms with the potential for damaging winds again
  with flood concerns as well.
---------------------------------------------------------------

A night of mainly clear skies will be in place through dawn.
Where some clearing occurs, some fog is likely to develop
overnight but will be patchy for most of the night. Low
temperatures this morning will be well above normal allowing for
little relief through the overnight and into the dawn hours.
Hence, the Heat Advisory will continue.

Continued heat concerns linger through the period, though it is
anticipated to not be quite as intense as early this week, and
some areas may not attain forecasted highs should they be
affected by convection. HREF chances of >90F are generally
around or >60% for urban and valley locations, and 20% to 40%
likely for the lowlands south and west of Pittsburgh for today.

HREF 25th to 75th MLCAPE is 1000J/kg to 1500 J/kg and DCAPE is
800 J/kg to 1200 J/kg, creating yet another day with confidence
in downburst potential should storms fully utilize their
environment. The NBM gives a 80% to 90% prob of SB CAPE over
1000 J/Kg and 60% to 70% for above 1500 J/Kg. Environmental
shear will be weak, with flow generally from the west, so again,
flooding potential will need to be monitored on the up- shear,
westerly side of any cold pools that develop into the day.
Afternoon HREF PWATS for Thursday sit between 1.7 and 1.8
between the 25th and 75th percentile, which is toward the 90th
percentile of climatology. So training in warm rain processes
remains a threat. It certainly seems like a similar day to
yesterday. The one prominent concern is the possibility of
heavy rainfall moving over the same areas that received
rainfall yesterday.

Convective coverage may wain overnight with the loss of the best
heating and mixing, though elevated instability will again have
the low chances of a shower/storm. Again, NBM shows a 80% to
100% chance of lows >70F south and east of, and including
Pittsburgh, with chances a bit lower north of US-422. This will
again, provide little relief. There is a potential for fog
development again on Friday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat concerns continue on Friday; heat advisory will be in
  effect through 8pm Friday.
- Daily downburst wind and flooding threats in the afternoon and
  evening continue through Sunday.
----------------------------------------------------------------

On Friday, chances of >90F are again highest for valley and
urban locations, with NBM showing a 20% to 40% chance. Heat
indices could push 100F in these areas yet again. This will
justify the continuation of the heat advisory through 8pm
Friday. Environmental parameters will be similar as days prior,
with LREF showing 1000 J/kg to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, 600 J/kg to 800
J/kg DCAPE, and weak shear from the southwest with up-shear
flooding potential. Chances again taper off at night. Low
temperatures have a >50% chance of lows >70F again south and
west of Pittsburgh Friday night.

Daily thunderstorm, downburst wind, and flooding threats
continue for the weekend during the afternoon/evening hours.
Initiation may be a bit more likely on Saturday as a front sags
south across the the center of the forecast area, and the front
may be a bit more likely south of I-70 Sunday as the front
continues its southward sag.

Both the southward sagging front and increased cloud cover
potential may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler into the
weekend. Most spread in temperatures is between the mid-to-
upper 80s. This will still be climatologically warm, but cooler
in perspective, which may allow heat risks to temporarily
reduce.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Potential for storms and locally heavy rainfall through at
  least Tuesday and possibly on Wednesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday night will feature the potential of some lingering
showers and thunderstorms but the overall convection should
weaken with sunset and loss of daytime heating. This is
especially the case since temperatures have cooled off a tad.
Expect a brief warmup Monday, there is some indication of a
brief troughing pattern by the middle of next week, though there
are some uncertainties in exactly how strong the trough will
be, as indicated by clustered variability. The threat of
unsettled weather will likely continue.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Patchy fog has plagued a few sites this morning, mostly those
that saw rain yesterday, with restrictions ranging from MVFR
down to LIFR with light wind and clear skies. Expect that as we
heat this morning, mixing will quickly commence and allow for
any restrictions to diminish within an hour to two after
sunrise.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
and evening in a similar manner to Wednesday as convection
fires in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary front across the
region. Included a prob30 for thunder, variable wind gusts, and
associated restrictions at all airports during the most likely
time of occurrence.

Convection should wane again this evening with the loss of
daytime heating and diurnal instability. Mid-level clouds
should linger into the evening with VFR expected.

Outlook...
Patchy MVFR/IFR in fog/stratus is expected Friday morning with
low level moisture in place. More numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Friday and Saturday afternoon and
evening as the front wavers across the region.

There is a lesser potential for afternoon showers/storms on
Sunday as high pressure briefly brushes by to the north.
Showers/storms return again Monday with an approaching cold
front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high maximum (left) and daily record high minimum (right)
temperatures for Thursday are listed below.

Thursday June 26th
Pittsburgh, PA:         95F (1966)              75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH:         97F (1952)              73F (1952)
Morgantown, WV:         96F (1952)              74F (1952)
Dubois, PA:             91F (1966)              66F (2000)
Wheeling, WV:           96F (1943, 1952)        73F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH:   99F (1988)              71F (2022)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ013-014-020>022-029-
     031-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ001>004-012-021-509-
     510.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek/Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Milcarek/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Milcarek/Shallenberger
AVIATION...WM/MLB
CLIMATE...MLB