Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 232145 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 545 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should maintain dry weather today. Low pressure is expected to track along the East Coast, resulting in periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 for the start of the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A weakening upper jet streak is currently transitioning through and eventually northeast of the area. With weak layer RH values below its right entrance region, the net effect of this is just dynamically allowing for the cirrus shield to expand northeastward across the area this evening, while deep moisture remains well to the south. As we approach the overnight hours, southerly flow in the mid- levels will likely start to become better established. This will work to increase mid-level moisture toward the southeastern portions of the forecast area as well as the ridges. With the increase in mid-level moisture as well as the northward migration of another jet streak right entrance region, rain chances will increase overnight in the southeastern zones. The addition of clouds to the area will likely keep a bit more of a lid on temperature falls tonight relative to last night. Even still, largely normal overnight temperatures look to be in store. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The cut-off upper-level low will dig further into the southeastern U.S. Monday. As this occurs, very little northwest progression of rain chances will be achieved. Models hinting at weak ascent streaming northward in the form of a deformation band, but activity along this will largely be negated by the presence of low-level dry air re-enforced by downsloping flow. As a result, will keep a tight gradient of PoPs along the Ridges, with only slight chance west. The best chances of rain outside of the higher elevations should come Tuesday as the low turns the corner and begins to fill over the Mid-Atlantic. Strong easterly flow will continue to advect moisture into the eastern facing upslopes, and some rain may be able to creep east to west over the higher elevations. The weakening low will then be pushed away by a building ridge through the upper Ohio Valley late Tuesday, establishing areawide dry conditions by Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging and rising heights in response to an approaching Midwestern trough should result in dry and warm weather for mid week. The flow is progged to amplify by late week as broad low pressure develops over the western CONUS. One cold front will stream through Thursday with showers and thunderstorms likely. This system will then open the door to more disturbances keeping the forecast wet through the weekend. Temperatures will be above average through the extended. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will maintain VFR and light northeast to east sfc wind into Monday. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.