Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261140 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 640 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING CHANGING TO SNOW. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES TRENDS. A LARGE GRADIENT ACROSS REGION FROM MID 30S AT KMGW TO UPPER TEENS I-80 AND THIS WILL REMAIN INTO MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRANSITIONS EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE RECONFIGURED ADVISORIES TO EXTEND ENDING TIMES AS MODELS AGREE ON SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO PITTSBURGH AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT SHIFTING EAST ACROSS REGION WILL KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS FOR AN EVENT OVER 36 HOURS. THIS KEEPS 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA EASTERN OHIO TO PITTSBURGH WITH 4 TO 6 ACROSS THE NORTH AND GARRETT COUNTY...WHERE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 7 AM TUESDAY. SOME TOTAL AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES FROM EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO INDIANA AND THE LAUREL RIDGES BUT AGAIN THIS IS FOR A LONG DURATION OVER 36 HOURS. SOUTH OF I-70 AND INTO PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING AS COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH. AMOUNTS THIS REGION FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH BETTER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER IN TUCKER COUNTY THIS MORNING WHERE 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN AT CANAAN VALLEY WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ELSEWHERE WITH RAIN MAJORITY OF COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TONIGHT AS SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WRAPS COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP I-70 SOUTH AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AS ENERGY WITH THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...LIKELY BRINGING VSBYS BACK DOWN TO IFR FOR A TIME TODAY. HAVE TRIED TO ESTIMATE THIS BASED OFF OF RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. E-NE WIND WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD THE W-NW AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WIND GUSTS TO 15KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020- 021-029. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-022-023-073-074-076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>003. && $$

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