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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100525
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY SPAWN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH 1215AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND KEPT
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MORNING COMMUTE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH EMBEDDED WAVES KEEPS THE BULK
OF LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS
EACH WAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT SHOULD HELP TO POP OUR TEMPERATURES UPWARD.

THE ONLY CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE LATE THIS EVENING WERE TO FURTHER
LOWER POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD AS VIRGA IS EVIDENT
EVERYWHERE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND NOTHING IS EVIDENT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA AT ALL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIMARY WEA CONCERN FOR THE NXT CPL OF DAYS WL BE THE ADVN OF LOW
PRES ALNG A SWD SAGGING FRONTAL BNDRY...TIMED FOR A WEDNESDAY
PASSAGE ACRS THE REGION. MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK...BUT
DIFFER SLGTLY ON TIMING WITH GFS TRANSLATING QUICKER TO THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE IS THUS IMPROVING ON THAT LOW SPREADING RAIN...AND SOME
SNOW OVR THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NGT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE BTR CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR AND WL LIKELY BE WITH THE INITIAL WARM SURGE ON THE
ADVN FLANK...AND IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE REVERSE FLANK OF
THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND
FIELD STRUCTURE AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS PROGGED BY GFS...ECMWF...AND
NAM...PRIMARY AND SUSTAINED MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE
WL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...HENCE INITIAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST WL
BE IN THE ADVISORY OR LESS CATEGORY.

OTHERWISE...THE LOW PRES TRACK AND STRONG WARM ADVCTN ARE EXPECTED
TO SPPRT A POSSIBLE BRIEF MIX...THEN RAIN WITH INCRG WIND SPEED AS
THE SFC LOW PASSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATER THAT NIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS CANADA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH FOR THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAKE QUITE A TUMBLE BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY STORM...WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE HIGH TEENS TO THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER EARLY
MON...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. EVENTUAL CLEARING OCCURS
LATER MON EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD RSTRNS ARE EXPD TUE NGT INTO WED EVE AS LOW PRES TRACKS
ACRS THE UPR OH VLY RGN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BREEZY COMBINATION OF WARMTH WITH INCRSG
DEWPOINTS FOLLOWED BY RAIN WL ELIMINATE ANY RMNG SNOW IN THE
RIDGES. WITH THE QPF OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF
THREE QUARTERS...TO AN INCH...FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE
LOCAL...HOWEVER...RIDGE ZONE CREEKS AND THE MONONGAHELA RIVER
BASINS WL HAVE TO MONITORED AS THE RMNG WATER EQUIVALENT IS
ACTIVATED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$