Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191756 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1256 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and much warmer air will overspread the region today. Drier weather is expected tonight and through much of Wednesday, as is very warm temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current radar imagery shows rain showers focusing along a line from about Canton, OH through Pittsburgh, PA. Further west, we see northern trajectory, indicating the warm front is getting a strong push from the mean southwesterly flow. That being said, rain this line of showers will gradually dislodge and push northeastward through the afternoon. Drying will occur from south to north through the evening, with rain finally coming to an end for far northern zones by late this evening. Bolstered by strong 850mb moisture transport, QPF amounts should range from about a half an inch just north of Pittsburgh to close to an inch on the northern reaches of the local forecast area. We`ll need to monitor this activity closely given the recent saturation of the soils south of I-80. Warm morning temperatures will shoot upwards today, topping out in the upper 50s north to mid 60s south. The warm front will finish is transition through the area this evening and temporary drying should commence. Strong southerly flow in the warm sector will keep temperatures elevated through the night. Lows will largely remain in the 50s, some 25-30 degrees warmer than average. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ...Record Breaking Highs Forecast For Tuesday... With the warm front pushing well north of the area Tuesday morning and the strengthening upper-level ridge nudging in from the south, dry weather will be maintained. Cloudy morning sky conditions will give way to gradual clearing through the day as the south-southwesterly flow fully mixes down the dry air aloft. High low temperatures, increasing insolation, strong warm advection, and building heights should all mean efficient warming is expected. High temperatures were kept on the high side of guidance, but a degree or two below the high MEX/MAV numbers as recent moist conditions will be a minor limiting factor. Regardless, highs are forecast to break records for Feb 20th. A climate section has been inserted below. The aforementioned ridge will keep the forecast area dry through at least Wednesday morning. Finally, the upper-level flow will steer the central U.S. low northeastward through Ontario, flopping the cold front over our area west to east. Some timing differences exist, but highest rain chances look to be during the day Wednesday. Current timing has this sharp boundary creating non-diurnal temperature curve for some, especially further north and east. Locations south and east of Pittsburgh should see one more strong warming day before the temperatures drop. We could make a run at a few record highs, but this will be highly dependent on timing of the front. With the upper-level support shunting northeast following the track of the low, only modest lift associated with the surface front is expected. Therefore, potential for high rainfall amounts with this round will be limited. In total, another quarter to half an inch can be expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... There are still some timing differences regarding the timing of the next cold front, but a passage in the late Wednesday/early Thursday period still is expected. This will bring the next chance of rain as well as cooler temperatures, but above-normal warmth will remain. The end of the forecast remains problematic, as several shortwaves may track across the area from Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Rain continues to move northeastward this afternoon. Expect MVFR and IFR conditions to improve with the northward departure of the warm front as indicated on satellite and surface observations, save for KFKL/KDUJ where low cigs may linger until later tonight. VFR should then prevail for much of the period tonight-tomorrow. Outside some diurnal cu in moist southerly flow, a passing shortwave aloft may briefly return some ceiling restrictions over the north tomorrow afternoon. Strong low level jet will support the continuation of LLWS in most of the TAFs through tomorrow morning. OUTLOOK... The risk for widespread restrictions returns late Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record Highs are forecast Tuesday and possible Wednesday Location Feb20 Record Feb21 Record Pittsburgh 68 (1891) 73 (1997) Zanesville 71 (1939) 72 (1997) Morgantown 70 (1994) 75 (1874) DuBois 61 (2016) 60 (1983) Wheeling 68 (1930/2016) 68 (1930) New Philadelphia 69 (1994) 66 (2017) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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