Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171625 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1125 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will result in dry and warm conditions through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Minor adjustments for hourly trends for the late morning update. Previous...Building high pressure will maintain dry weather and mid level clouds will diminish as the crossing warm front develops eastward. Warm advection and filtered insolation will drive near term temperature about 15 to 20 degrees above the averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry and unseasonable warmth will carry into the weekend as the ridge builds and warm southwest flow continues. Models hinting at a thin layer of moisture below 900mb across the north Saturday morning. Thinking that some stirring near the top of the boundary layer could generate stratus, mainly north of Pittsburgh. Thus, have increased clouds in the pre-dawn hours there. Highs Saturday will likely reach into the 60s in many locations, nearing records for some climate sites (see Climate section below). Moisture will continue to increase with southwest flow Saturday evening as a slow and weak low departs the Mississippi Valley. Models continue to have this decaying wave pass to our south, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. This could generate a few showers along the mountains of WV/MD. With temperatures expected to remain well above normal, precipitation will remain in the form of rain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The mid-level ridge builds once again in the wake of the Saturday night/Sunday shortwave, with mostly dry weather and continued much above normal temperatures into Tuesday. The next front and weak Great Lakes shortwave is expected to arrive thereafter. This will not bring a new troughing pattern aloft, but will instead create more of a zonal flow pattern, albeit one with above normal 500 mb heights. Thus, rain chances return for late Tuesday and Wednesday. The front may have trouble clearing the CWA, thus some slight chance PoPs remain in the grids into Friday. Warm temperatures will continue. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR and light southerly wind can be expected through tonight as high pressure completes a slide across the region. Weak troughing is expected to support some MVFR restrictions on Saturday. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15

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