Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201938 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 338 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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After low chances of rain Wednesday and Thursday, a cold front will bring widespread rain to the region on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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While a few showers have passed to the north of the forecast area this afternoon, all remaining activity today should remain across New York, and a dry forecast has been maintained into the evening. A weak cold front will move across the region overnight into Wednesday. Synoptic models show precipitation becoming more scattered as the front approaches, although the RAP appears to be the most aggressive with keeping precipitation together with the frontal passage. Made minimal increases to pops for now pending radar trends. Temperatures will inch up a few degrees from today`s readings.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The unsettled pattern continues into Thursday with a shortwave moving across the area. Again, stuck with low chance pops, primarily across northern counties. The most active weather period for the week still appears to occur Friday into Friday night. Models are in good agreement that another cold front will enter the region from the west. At the same time, Tropical Storm Cindy will continue its path from the Gulf of Mexico into the Mississippi Valley. Still too early to be specific with the interaction of the moisture from the tropical storm with the front, but so far it appears that the bulk of the rainfall will remain south of the forecast area with the front shunting the Cindy remnants to the east. Thursday should be the warmest day of the 7 day forecast, with temperatures about five degrees cooler with the arrival of the front.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The chance of showers will linger south and east of Pittsburgh Saturday along the back side of the front, and an additional shortwave could spark showers on Sunday. High pressure should build in for Monday and Tuesday, resulting in quiet weather. Temperatures will remain below normal through the extended forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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General VFR conditions through the period. 270 degree winds this afternoon in the 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20kt will weaken near sunset. VFR overnight. Winds will pick up similar to today during the afternoon on Wednesday. .OUTLOOK...Low chance of non-VFR Wed thru Sun in shra/tsra except good chance Fri into Fri night with passage of a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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