Area Forecast Discussion
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125 FXUS61 KPBZ 091810 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 110 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST AND EAST OF KPIT AND BEGINNING TO WANE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW EXITING LAKE ERIE AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT LEAVES THE LAKE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO ADVISORIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COLD ADVECTION. INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES. COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -25C OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE. A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049- 050-057>059-068-069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021- 029-031-073-075. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510>514. && $$

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