Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 241448 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1048 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Low pressure tracking along the East Coast should result in
periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 early in the week.
Dry and warm weather is expected with mid week high pressure.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid-morning update features only minor enhancements to sky and
temperature fields based on satellite and obs. The southeast
CONUS low will turn the corner today afternoon and begin a
northeasterly track. As it does, the increased moisture
advecting from the Mid-Atlantic region will continue to bring
rain chances to our southeastern periphery. Near term models do
show rain as non-continuous in this area, as slightly drier
mid- level air works its way in. With this in mind, will
continue to stay just below categorical PoPs this afternoon and
early evening. Elsewhere, will maintain only slight and low
chance PoPs as drier low-levels will be re-enforced by
downsloping easterly flow.
Temperatures will be largely dependent on extent of cloud cover
an rain through the afternoon. Seasonal highs are expected N-W
of PIT where an increase in clouds should occur later in the
day, with below average readings S-E where more predominant
clouds cover/rain is expected. Stayed close to CONSShort, which
seems to be handling these very well.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Rain chances are expected to spread nwd east of the I 79
corridor through Tuesday as the low moves up the East Coast.
Maintained likely to categorical numbers in the WV/MD ridges
where the most favorable moisture and ascent is progged in
proximity to the low. Rain chances should end Tuesday night as
the low begins to pull away from the coast.
Building ridging on Wednesday should result in dry and warm
weather, with temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 expected.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging is progged to shift east early in the period as a trough
advances out of the Midwest, returning rain chances to the
forecast. Gradually increasing heights and SW upper flow are
expected through the weekend in response to a deepening wrn
CONUS trough. Embedded shortwaves in the SW flow should result
in periodic shower/thunderstorm chances from late week through
the weekend. Temperatures are expected to average 10-20 degrees
above seasonal levels.
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will be predominate for the TAF period as easterly flow
continues to funnel moisture against the ridges. Light rain
chances will generally be confined to LBE and MGW. A fairly
tight pressure gradient will supports gusts near 20 kts this
The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid
week low pressure.