Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291356 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 956 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MID-MORNING UPDATE TWEAKING POPS AND SKY COVER TO RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS RESPECTIVELY. SKY WAS TRIMMED BACK CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVE ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INGESTING THE RAW HRRR TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV LATER AS THE LATEST UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH. HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO JUST ISOLATED. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. TAX/TG && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB 3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS. AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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