Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 232201 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 601 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SUNNY AND WARM EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A QUICK COOL DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT. TRIMMED CLOUDS BACK THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL BE COMBATED BY MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE TELLING...AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP FROM FALLING OFF AS DRAMATICALLY AS LAST NIGHT. THE HRRR STANDS OUT BY KEEPING DEWPOINTS 15-20 DEGREES LOWER. GIVEN THAT MOST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER POISED TO DE- COUPLE AGAIN JUST AFTER SUNSET...THINK THAT THE ACTUAL SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO PARTIES. WILL KEEP SIMILAR TEMPERATURE TREND SPATIALLY TONIGHT TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER. KEEPING THE METRO AREA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WARMER THAN ADJACENT RURAL LANDS AND VALLEYS...RESPECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES FALL ENOUGH ACROSS SHELTERED AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH THAT FROST COULD AGAIN COME TO FRUITION...BUT SPATIAL EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL INCREASE ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS READINGS. TAX && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM NAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RESTRICTIONS CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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