Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 262314 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 614 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY ADVANCING INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RH VALUES START TO WANDER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...UNDER THOSE LAYERS...FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILES...RH VALUES ALONG THE RIDGETOPS CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW THOSE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHWARD SHOULD PUT A LID ON HUGE TEMPERATURE FALLS TONIGHT. WHILE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD CHALLENGE FREEZING WITH LOWER 20S IN THE RIDGES...THIS MAKES NO METEOROLOGICAL SENSE. INVERTED PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID-SLOPES AND RIDGES TO BE WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +4 TO +5C. WITH THAT SAID...LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD MOST EVERYWHERE...PARTICULARLY OVER OHIO AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD EXPECTATIONS WERE LIKEWISE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. FRIES PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY... EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SAT WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVG UNDER STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. H85 TEMPS IN THE 5-8C RANGE WILL ENGULF THE AREA WITH MIXING FROM MODEST SRLY FLOW. A DECENT 40+KT JET WILL SKIRT OUR NWRN PERIPHERY SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT A STOUT H9 INVERSION WILL HOLD MOST OF THAT WIND BACK. COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...GUST NEAR 20KTS. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DISLODGED AND PUSHED OFFSHORE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. BY LATE SAT NIGHT...MOISTURE FROM ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG A SHARED BOUNDARY. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY AS A COLD FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE DAY SUN...ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE WEAK FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. FRONTAL PROGRESS SLOWS AS IT GETS STRETCHED OUT AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...A FRESH WAVE WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. BEST SUPPORT/MOISTURE CLIPS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA..AND KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS HERE. BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR SAGS IN SLOWLY ON INITIAL WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION END BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON MONDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY PULLS AWAY...WHILE DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLOUDS LINGER FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. WHILE PRECIP ENDS IN THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO SAG INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE AND SUPPORT WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND ELECTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MORE SEASONABLE VALUES RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THEREAFTER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED WILL LARGELY BE DRY WITH A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE FLOW DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED. FURTHER OUT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY CLOSED OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT MODELS VARY WIDELY IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BY A MARGIN OF SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MID-LVL CLOUDS WITH A PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY SAT...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT. LIGHT SRLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY SAT WILL INCREASE SAT MIDDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TAX OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN WITH A PASSING WAVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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