Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270810 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 410 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND END THE SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES AND COOL WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A CU DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AS STRATOCU DECK IS HANGING TOUGH. H500 TROUGH AXIS HAS PULLED THROUGH AND EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PIT. WITH CLEARING PROGRESSING A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON THE FOG/LOW CLOUD FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT WE WILL NEED MORE GENERAL CLEARING TO REALLY FOG THE AREA IN. REGARDLESS...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND A SCT-BKN CU DECK WILL REMAIN. FKL/DUJ MAY HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE GENERAL CLEARING BY SUNSET. FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE BETTER 24 HOURS FROM NOW. CL OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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