Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271029 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 629 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather can be expected until late Sunday as high pressure slides across the Upper Ohio Valley Region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No major alterations were needed for the dawn update as dry high pressure will build over the region for the near term period. With warm advection on the northern flank of strong SE CONUS ridge, expect high temperatures about 10 degrees above the averages. For tonight, some adjustments were completed to the dewpoint and temperature prog as superblend guidance indicated a more aggressive moisture return than was prudent for the relatively weak flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A shortwave crossing the northern Great Lakes is projected to begin eroding the aforementioned ridge late Sunday. Model depictions of that system and the degree of erosion have/are not consistent, so have generally persisted with Sunday afternoon thunderstorm chances with better focus north of Pittsburgh. Nevertheless, confidence that a cooling of the airmass and a change of upper flow will get underway for Monday and Tuesday is good; so, the forecast will feature diurnally- supported slight to chance precip probability with continued, but fading above-average warmth, all in association with expectations of the southward sagging front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A change in flow pattern is indicated for the latter half of the week with NAEFS and the latest GFS and ECMWF in general agreement on the formation of a fairly amplified Eastern CONUS trough. Temperatures under the projected trough look to be at least 10 degrees under this weekends readings, i.e. at or a few degrees below the averages under northwest flow aloft. Upper precip support with the main cold front is not model-synced so POPS do not exceed the chance category for the Wednesday passage. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Other than local IFR fog early this morning, high pressure should maintain VFR conditions and light wind through the TAF period. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restrictions are possible with the approach and passage of cold fronts Sunday through Monday, and again Wednesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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