Area Forecast Discussion
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981 FXUS61 KPBZ 261233 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 833 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures will be marred by rain today and Tuesday as a series of low pressure areas cross the region. A Tuesday cold front will drop readings back toward the averages. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The primary change with the 8:30am forecast update was to slow down arrival of precipitation by a couple of hours in most locations. Closest precipitation remains west of the Columbus metro area, and trended the forecast in the direction of the HRRR/RAP. Only minimal changes made to the rest of the forecast. Previous discussion follows. Shortwave ridging in advance of midwestern low pressure continues to suppress precip over the Upper Ohio Region despite the presence of a stalled front analyzed across the Pittsburgh area. That situation will change today as the low is forecast to continue digging eastward, escalating POPs from the west as the system trundles toward the Lakes. A general half, to three quarters of an inch of rainfall is expected with the passage, and in the wake of the systems occluded front during the next 24 hours. Thunderstorm formation is progged to be hampered by meager instability, although deep layer shear will be favorable for severe as usual this time of year with the crossing low. A chance thunder mention was maintained with the categorical rain POP. Rain chances will fade quickly on Monday morning as the weakening trough slides eastward. Given the occluded nature of the front, warm temperatures will be maintained in its wake. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Shortwave ridging is timed to keep much of Monday dry, but another midwestern trough, albeit weaker is likely to generate more precip on Monday night and Tuesday. That system is projected to pull a cold front across the region later on Tuesday which will drop temperatures closer to the seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... With high pressure settling in behind Tuesday`s cold front and northerly flow developing, dry and seasonable weather is expected Tuesday night through Thursday. By Thursday evening, the GFS and ECMWF begin to show diverging forecasts, with one model showing low pressure over Lake Huron by Saturday morning and the other model showing low pressure across Tennessee. Have stuck close to the Superblend through this part of the forecast. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions largely are expected under shortwave ridging before low pressure tracking across the OH valley/lower Great Lakes later today results in increasing shower chances and deterioration to MVFR from W-E during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms still remain a possibility however, are not included in TAFs at this time based on limited instability. Outlook... Restrictions are expected to continue tonight with the passage of the low. Restrictions are likely again Mon night/Tue with a crossing cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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