Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 121914 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 214 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain will end during this evening hour behind a cold front. More seasonable temperatures return by Friday. A wintry mix is possible Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front is still just northwest of the CWA, waiting to be kicked across by an upstream shortwave over the Great Lakes. The northern areas under the flood watch are currently getting a break from rain from the most part, but convection is lining up along the boundary and will move through during the afternoon. Will continue the flood watch for now given the saturated ground and potential for more heavy rain in a 1 inch PWAT air mass. Strong to marginally severe wind gusts are also possible ahead/along the front as some modest instability has built in areas that saw a few peeks of sun. Think gusts otherwise will continue to top out between 40-45 MPH...just below advisory criteria. Cannot rule out a few gusts above advisory levels on the higher peaks later this afternoon, but after collaboration with surrounding offices will hold off on issuance and consider an SPS. Rain will pull east this evening with the front as it crosses between 21Z and 04Z. Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, but for now expect precipitation to end before any changeover would occur. Low clouds will linger through the night as moisture gets trapped underneath an inversion. Low temperatures by 12Z will be some 20 degrees colder than readings 24 hours before. Any remaining moisture on roads could cause black ice issues overnight and Friday morning...possibly necessitating a statement. Clouds will break during Friday morning, with a fair bit of sunshine expected during the afternoon as high pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be right around climatology during the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface anticyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec will set the stage for a potential winter potpourri Friday night into the first half of Saturday. The front returns back as a warm front throwing a warm layer aloft which will lead to a ptype challenging forecast. Much like previous shifts there is a fair amount of uncertainty how far north does measurable QPF get? For this cycle did not change too much save for bringing snow / sleet potential to the PA turnpike corridor. QPF for this event won`t be that much save for Garrett county where the potential for upwards of a quarter of an inch of ice is possible. Debated on a winter storm watch for them given strength of barrier jet, however decided to hold off since it is late fourth period and coordination with adjacent offices. With a west to east steering flow the threat of a wintry mix does not go away until late Saturday night when the baroclinic zone drops south into WV. Even though QPF will be light, winter weather advisories may be needed.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Highlights: - Active weather pattern - No signs of cold air - Elevated river and stream levels will continue Baroclinic zone that will create a winter ptype challenge on Saturday pushes south into central WV Sunday night before returning as a warm front as yet another low ejects from the lower Mississippi valley. Thermal profiles illustrate yet another wintry mix setup but this one appears to be more rain / freezing rain given the warm layer aloft temperature. Added this to the grids and included it in the hazardous weather outlook. The longest duration of ice looks to be north of I-80 where cold air at the surface hangs in the longest. The region resides in the warm sector much of next week until a cold front crosses Wednesday - Thursday time frame. It does not appear any prolong rain events will occur rather rounds of showers with passing mid level pieces of energy. Depending on where the baroclinic zone gets hung up Wednesday night into Thursday could lead to excessive rainfall, however that is well down the pike and too early to tell. For now, snow lovers will have to make due to with temps more comparable to early April oppose to late January.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR to local IFR will continue to be possible into the evening hours ahead and along a cold front, which is expected to cross between 21Z and 04Z. Winds will continue to gust to between 30 and 40 knots ahead of the front, with a shift to the west and a decrease in gusts thereafter. MVFR to IFR ceilings will linger through the night as moisture is trapped near the surface. Improvement towards VFR will begin towards the tail end of the TAF period with high pressure returning. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected through early next week as a series of disturbances cross the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening FOR OHZ039>041. PA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening FOR PAZ007>009- 013>015-020. WV...None. && $$

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