Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242158 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 558 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A muggy night as the mercury only falls back to around 70. A cold front in name only passes Monday afternoon bringing the chance of a downpour. Dry for mid week, however above normal temperatures are forecast to continue. Another cold front will cross in the late Thursday - Friday time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... With 6pm update, dropped heat advisory headline from counties where line of thunderstorms has come through and significantly dropped temperatures. While much of the line of thunderstorms has cleared through west central Pennsylvania, storms are continuing to remain strong/severe across eastern Ohio, the northern West Virginia panhandle, and southwestern Pennsylvania. Wet microbursts continue to be the primary threat along with downpours considering the high moisture content of the air. Still expect that the bulk of rainfall will be done by late evening, as upstream rainfall across northeastern Ohio is falling apart and has no lightning. Expect quiet but muggy conditions overnight with lows around 70. A cold front will cross the region Monday afternoon on the periphery of the mid level anticyclone. This will end the short heat wave across the area as clouds and timing of the showers should hold temps in the 80s. Much the case today, ample energy to tap for storms, especially when morning cap erodes. Best chance for any severe storm will be south of DUJ to PIT to ZZV line at this juncture. Wet microbursts are possible given a water loaded sounding. PWATS north of two inches once again support brief heavy rain. As for a flash flooding threat, the jury is still out given storms will be moving and training does not appear to be an issue. The best timing for storms will be late morning to midday hours in Ohio and mid to late afternoon for PA/WV/MD. Temps were constructed using the Bias-Corrected Raw Blend given recent performance. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The baroclinic zone will be east of the region Monday night. In its wake lower dewpoints will return, however daytime highs will remain above normal with widespread mid and upper 80s forecast. Any residual fog from the previous day rain will scour out by late Tuesday morning. Dry weather takes command through the balance of the short term. Zonal flow aloft and a area of high pressure traversing through the Great Lakes are the culprits for the stretch of zero precip days. H8 temps slowly increase 1-2C during this period so for the most part daytime highs will be mirrors of each other. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights: - Continued above normal temperatures - Best shot at rain arrives Thursday night into Friday Overall no real change to synoptic pattern for much of the week as a broad H5 anticyclone dominates the southern 2/3rds of the CONUS. Our mid level height values will fall a few decameters, but not enough to usher in temps where they should be for this time of year. Based on H8 temps not see a stretch of 90F+ weather like this weekend. However, would not be surprised for eastern Ohio to be right around 90F for daytime highs most of the week. Baroclinic zone that crosses Monday night weakens and washes out over the central Appalachians Tuesday as flow become parallel to the boundary and it encounters increased subsidence. In its wake, slightly cooler weather than what we have experienced takes hold for mid week. By weeks end, another shortwave trough traverses the region sweeping a cold front through. Timing differences reside with ECMWF and GEFS, but ECMWF keeps the recent summer trend going of shortwaves passing outside peak heating hours. GFS opts for a Friday afternoon passage. Either way, the next shot of widespread precipitation appears to be Thursday night into Friday. Zonal flow re-establishes for the weekend with temperatures near the climo average of lower to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thunderstorms remain possible over the next few hours at DUJ/LBE/MGW into the evening hours as a line moves across the forecast area. Latest hi res model guidance has the thunderstorm complex east of the region by 00z. Behind it, some MVFR cigs or vsbys may be possible, especially at terminals that received heavy rainfall. With greater confidence in restrictions north, will keep mention at KFKL and KDUJ. Restrictions will be possible Monday with the approach and passage of a weak cold front. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... After the passage of the cold front Monday night, no widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... Hot temperatures across the region today may approach record levels at some sites. Here are a few selected records and forecasts... Site Forecast Record Year Pittsburgh Int`l Airport 94 98 1934 New Philadelphia 97 94 1999 Morgantown 95 93 1987 Zanesville 96 95 1999 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR OHZ039-048>050- 057>059-068-069. PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR PAZ029-031-073- 075. WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR WVZ002>004-012- 021-509. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.