Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291859 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 159 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... QUICK UPDT TO END FRZG RAIN ADVYS. BAND OF PCPN...MAINLY SNW AND SLEET...WL CONT TO WORK EWD THE REST OF THE AFTN. ADDNL PCPN IS EXPD AS A CDFNT APCHS THE RGN THIS EVE. EXP A SLOW TEMP RISE AS PCPN ENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A CDFNT WL CROSS THE RGN THIS EVE WITH ANY PCPN CHG TO SNW. A CROSSING UPR TROF WL KEEP SNW SHWR CHCS IN THE RGN THRU FRI. GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW WL ALLOW FOR ADVY LVL SNW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES...AND SOME LTD CONNECTION OFF LK HURON COULD ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACRS NW PA. WL CONT THE WINTER WEA ADVYS AS IS ATTM. INVERSION LVLS LWR AND BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD END ANY SNW SHWRS FRI BY FRI EVE. DRY WEA SHOULD CONT SAT UNDER THE HIGH. WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WL CONT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS CONT TO JOUST IN HANDLING OF LOW PRES PROJECTED TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FM SATURDAY NGT INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENCE RMNS PRUDENT WITH LATEST GFS IN GENL LINE WITH CURRENT THINKING OUTSIDE OF TIMING ISSUES. MEANWHILE...ECMWF IS FORECASTING A SOUTHWARD TRACK TO SFC SLOW CENTER AND PCPN SHIELD. BOTH MDLS CONT TO DEPICT AN OPEN MID LVL WAVE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LGT...TO MODERATE...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY...WITH CONFIDENCE BUILDING FOR AREAS ALNG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. COLDER WEATHER WL FOLLOW AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS AGAIN DIG AN ERN CONUS UPR TROUGH...DETAILS FOR WHICH WL BE REFINED WITH TIME. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONDITION DETERIORATION IS UNDERWAY AND DEGRADATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS MIXED PCPN SPREADS OVR UPR OH TERMINALS AND CHANGES TO SNOW WITH CDFNT PASSAGE THIS EVE. IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHWRS THIS EVE...AND IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS WHICH WL ACCOMPANY THE COLD SURGE OVR THE REGION. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... IMPROVEMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BLDS LTR ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER...SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH SUNDAY LOW PRES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 015-016-023. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041. && $$ 07/15

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